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Flemington

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Flemington will host a ripper ten race card on Tuesday, headlined by the iconic Melbourne Cup (3200m). Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the TBA position for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

Siding with raceday/straight track experience so I am with 10 Price Tag (Bet Now: $3.90) for Team Freedman. She debuted in the Trial at this track/distance and was quite good in defeat, closing to run a close up third to Tremonti. Had jumped out really well prior and is drawn out, which is usually the right part of the track.

Danger

1 Shining Smile (Bet Now: $8.50) ran second in the race mentioned above. He got into a decent spot near the speed and presented to win when clear but couldn’t quite see it through when a narrow second to Tremonti. Winkers on to sharpen him up and has the experience down the straight. Rates highly.

Long Shot

4 The Opportunist (Bet Now: $51.00) is an improver at odds. He debuted in the Debutant at Caulfield where he didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight and couldn’t quite build the revs behind Miss Celine. Hadn’t looked too bad in trial/jumpout work prior so I think he’s in with a shout at odds.

Back Me

I don’t think you can go wrong backing 6 Kenmare Bay (Bet Now: $11.00) each way. He was six weeks between runs when racing over the mile at Newcastle last time in what was pretty much a barrier trial in terms of the speed of the race. Not suited to him but loved the way he closed off in defeat. Fitter, up to 1800m, firmer deck, I think he only runs well.

Danger

4 Hammett (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Chris Waller trained gelding that is heading in the right direction. He was a strong winner at Warwick Farm where he sat on speed under Tim Clark and credit to him, he found under pressure to fend them off and get the job done. That was over the mile, so he’s had a good grounding and this race isn’t strong overall.

Long Shot

7 Lario (Bet Now: $81.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile after racing over 1400m two weeks back off a freshen up when racing at Caulfield, getting back in the run and was okay late without threatening behind Getafix. Fitter and back up in trip, I say he commands respect as a knockout hope.

Back Me

6 Riot And Rose (Bet Now: $5.50) is getting towards D-Day but a firm deck is a big tick for him. Forget his run on Moe Cup Day given the track was quite testing and he hates getting his feet wet. The run first up at Sandown against the race shape was quite good, he maps to do no work and be strong at the end.

Danger

4 Cloudland (Bet Now: $2.25) is hard to beat given the depth is thin, but he’s near even money…gee he’s short. For the most part this time in, he has seemingly had every chance, notably last time, but just hasn’t been able to finish the race off. J Mac on is the last saving grace I dare say. He can win, but not touching at the short odds.

Long Shot

8 Bifrost (Bet Now: $23.00) is a query at 1400m but this isn’t a deep race so I say he commands respect as a knockout chance. He ran over 1300m at Cranbourne last time where he was a bit on the plain side late but I will say he did have some form of excuses in the run. Not sure he wins, but a first four threat.

Back Me

17 Damehood (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. Ciaorn Maher trained filly that went like a rocket I thought on debut at Ballarat, getting better as the race went on and was quite sharp the way she put them away late in the piece. Good test here stepping up to this level but for mine, she looks well above average.

Danger

4 Last Druid (Bet Now: $11.00) is a son of Brazen Beau for James Cummings that resumes and the stable love the freshen up with a Stake race in mind when it comes to the breeding barn. This colt hasn’t raced since Aug 24 at The Valley when over 1200m and just failed to see out the trip behind Daggers. Freshened up, recent jumpout was strong and he gets J Mac.

Long Shot

2 Blue Stratum (Bet Now: $20.00) is on the quick back up for Team McEvoy after racing last Friday night at The Valley over 1000m when just off the speed and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish the job when fourth to Rich Dottie. Not sure he is a horse I could back to win but a must for exotics.

Back Me

To be confirmed once the field is finalised.

Danger

Long Shot

Back Me

The gate could be a disaster for 10 Cafe Millennium (Bet Now: $8.00) but I just think he’s the each way play here. I want to be forgiving of his run last Saturday at Randwick. Back in a barrier trial re tempo, then lost momentum shoving into the clear, warming up late in a good piece of work in defeat. If the breaks go his way and room to move, he takes beating.

Danger

8 Apulia (Bet Now: $3.20) looks back on track. He had his issues in the Autumn and was spelled. He resumed in the Gold Star at The Valley and should have won, charging late to just miss out on the win. Fitter and up to 1800m, if he runs up to the return, he takes beating against this lot.

Long Shot

3 Midnight Blue (Bet Now: $12.00) is a beauty for Mark Walker and commands respect. He won the Seymour Cup when resuming, sitting near the speed and he was trucking before being clicked up Stackhouse and he was quite strong to the line in winning. Natural upside, good racing style, takes beating.

Note: these tips may change once the final field/barriers is done.

Back Me

It’s not a vintage Melbourne Cup but you take the good with the bad. But, I am with Buckaroo (Bet Now: $5.00). The Caulfield Cup is the traditional form reference and he was the clear eye catcher, closing off with real purpose when second to Duke De Sessa. The trip is the obvious query but if he runs it out fine, then he has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat given how well he’s going at present.

Danger

It was hard not to be impressed by the win of Sea King (Bet Now: $9.00) in the Bendigo Cup. It wasn’t a deep field on paper but the manner in which he put them away, gave them a start and a beating, gee he was impressive. He has failed over longer trips in the UK previously but off the win at Bendigo, 3200m is okay and he’s well in at the weights.

Long Shot

I think dismiss Warp Speed (Bet Now: $26.00) at your peril. He’s a top class Japanese stayer and I feel just forget his Caulfield Cup run. He was ridden like it was a barrier trial and was never a factor but his late splits weren’t too bad. Much better horse on firmer footing, bigger track and up in trip, with his Japanese form, I think he’s going to run a beauty.

Back Me

7 Big Swinger (Bet Now: $3.60) could have lengths on this lot. I think he is the best on the card. 2/2 to start his career for Charlotte Littlefield, both wins over 1200m at Ballarat and each time he has got better as the race went on, looking like he will eat up 1400m and the big lead re last start is Craig Williams wanted to be in Sydney to prepare for The Everest but stayed in Ballarat to ride this horse. He sticks, he’ll love 1400m at Flemington…keen.

Danger

13 Stage N Screen (Bet Now: $7.00) is a nice looking filly on the up for Mark Walker. She debuted over 1200m on Seymour Cup Day when on speed and was absolutely trucking before being clicked up and away she went for a dominant win, running time. Good test here, but confident she measures up.

Long Shot

10 Supernima (Bet Now: $15.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He ran over 1400m at Caulfield last time and tried his guts out but just found one better in Sydney raider Getafix. Third up, so should be hard fit, maps ideally and be strong late.

Back Me

Happy to speck 8 Material Dreams (Bet Now: $31.00) each way in what looks an open contest. Both runs back have come over 1200m at Caulfield, really catching the eye first up behind Kundalini before going to the Northwood Plume where the race shape was against but she kept on in a good effort behind Aviatress. 1400m at Flemington looks ideal and with the gate, should get three wide cover and launch late.

Danger

9 Miss Aria (Bet Now: $6.50) is an absolute model of consistency and suspect that will continue here. She comes through the Tristarc at Caulfield where she seemingly had her chance to the eye but I am not sure the race shape was to her liking so be forgiving behind Lady In Pink. More genuine tempo, good map, rates highly.

Long Shot

6 Comrade Rosa (Bet Now: $12.00) is dangerous if the track remains on the firm side. She hasn’t raced since October 5 when back in the run and trucked before angling clear and found the line strongly when third to Uncle Bryn. Like her on a firmer deck, does no work…dangerous.

Back Me

5 Snow Patrol (Bet Now: $14.00) on top for me in the get out. Price/Kent trained gelding that resumes after prepping in Sydney, I dare say with the stable thinking he could be a Golden Eagle contender but for whatever reason they brought him back to Melbourne and his recent jumpout was very good. With luck from the gate, he takes beating.

Danger

3 Rheinberg (Bet Now: $7.00) is a very consistent animal for Team Hayes that is first up, having not raced since Aug 24 at The Valley when third to surprise all the way winner Rolls, who had control in front and was much too good. Has jumped out well leading in, gets J Mac and gets run of the race from the draw.

Long Shot

7 Jack The Lad (Bet Now: $31.00) is a definite knockout chance for mine. SA raider that is an absolute beauty and was a real eye catcher in the Murray Bridge Cup last time, getting a mile out of his ground but his finale was very good late in the piece behind Maracourt. Maps to do no work and he’ll be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Big Swinger

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 17 Damehood

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Material Dreams

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: TBC

Leg Two: 7

Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 12

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