Why record QB frenzy looms as teams plot desperate gamble: NFL Draft Burning Qs

by Admin
April 23, 2024

It’s the TV spectacle every sports league wishes it had – but nothing’s quite like the NFL Draft.

And the 2024 selection meeting looms as an exciting one thanks to a suite of top quarterback prospects who could make or break the futures of desperate teams.

This is your ultimate guide to the 2024 NFL Draft, including the burning questions ahead of Friday morning’s first round.

Watch every pick of the NFL Draft, first round beginning 10am AEST on Friday April 26, on ESPN via Kayo. New to Kayo? Start Your Free Trial >

WHEN IS THE NFL DRAFT?

The 2024 NFL Draft takes place in Detroit from April 26 to 28 (AEST).

Round 1: From 10am AEST, Friday April 26

Rounds 2 and 3: From 10am AEST, Saturday April 27

Rounds 4 and 7: From 2am AEST, Sunday April 28

HOW CAN I WATCH THE NFL DRAFT?

Every pick of the 2024 NFL Draft will be shown on Foxtel and Kayo via ESPN.

Foxsports.com.au will have a live blog during Friday’s opening round plus updates and analysis throughout the weekend.

The big questions from the 2024 NFL Draft.Source: FOX SPORTS

WILL THIS BE A RECORD-SETTING QB-HEAVY DRAFT?

We’ve seen quarterbacks taken first, second and third, in 2021. It didn’t really work out, with Zach Wilson and Trey Lance’s careers going nowhere after Trevor Lawence opened proceedings.

We’ve seen quarterbacks taken first, second and fourth, in 2023. This is the opposite, with the guy at the top (Bryce Young) needing a lot of help, but No.2 CJ Stroud looks like a gem, and No.4 Anthony Richardson showed plenty of promise in his first, brief campaign.

So there’s clearly a trend – the most important position on the field is being valued more highly than ever, as teams understand just how valuable even an average QB on his rookie contract is.

But things may go to an extreme in 2024, with the very real chance quarterbacks are taken with the first four picks in the NFL Draft, which has never happened before.

There’s no question a QB will go first, and really no question who it’ll be. The Chicago Bears already traded away their former QB of the future, Justin Fields, and will select unanimous top prospect Caleb Williams out of USC.

In a pool of exciting, athletic passers Williams tops them all, doing the sorts of things on a football field – completing long bombs and hitting tight windows, even when off-balance and out of sync with how the play was supposed to develop – that only the likes of Patrick Mahomes usually can.

He hasn’t quite earned the ‘generational prospect’ tag which Trevor Lawrence did a few years back, but he’s the best QB to come out of college since the now-Jaguars signal-caller (and Lawrence, for what it’s worth, has been very very good with minimal help around him), and one of the best since Andrew Luck.

Then the intrigue begins.

The Washington Commanders have to pick a QB, so there’s no real question about them trading down, but it’s just a matter of which prospect they prefer.

For most of the 2023 college football season, North Carolina’s Drake Maye was spoken of as the clear No.2 QB, adding the height Williams doesn’t have – and in the process shaping as the prospect you’d build in a lab.

He just has a bit less refinement than Williams, and a bit less accuracy, plus a bit less athleticism (though he can certainly move). He can make all the throws but you’d prefer him to take a few less risks; the question is whether he felt the need to take them because of a worse supporting cast than his rivals to go early had.

Two other contenders have risen through the draft process, one – LSU’s Jayden Daniels – to the point where he’s now the favourite to join the Commanders.

The player-team combination makes some sense here, with ex-Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury the offensive coordinator in Washington. His downfield passing attack would suit the big arm and speed of Daniels, as he has drawn some comparisons to Cardinals QB Kyler Murray.

Daniels was a tremendous player, winning the Heisman Trophy as college football’s best in 2023, though he was a senior and is almost two years older than most of the other QB prospects (older players can overperform in college as they face kids fresh out of high school). He also had incredible offensive talent around him including receiver Malik Nabers, a looming top-10 pick.

He also loves taking sacks, going down on 23.3 per cent of his dropbacks last season, a completely unsustainable rate. Daniels is electric, and you can dream on his upside, but his downside is severe.

The fourth, Michigan’s national championship winning leader J.J. McCarthy, is intriguing in a very different way.

He’s not your stereotypical game manager in terms of talent, but that’s how Michigan treated him, choosing to rely heavily on its strengths – a bruising offensive line and powerful running game. Looking at the few things McCarthy actually did, there’s quite a bit to get excited about, and he shapes as an ideal NFL QB for certain systems.

Specifically he looks like a Kyle Shanahan (or one of his disciples) quarterback. McCarthy could step into Brock Purdy’s or Tua Tagovailoa shoes in 2024 and probably do 90% of the job; in particular he’s athletic and had great accuracy over the middle of the field.

Can he be more than that though? We certainly didn’t see it during his time at the Wolverines, nor does his athletic profile suggest it. And so McCarthy has a reasonably high floor if he’s drafted into the right system, but the ceiling is low, and it’s fair to ask whether you want more out of a top-five pick.

The well-respected QBASE metric, originally used by Football Outsiders before the site folded and now hosted at ESPN, loves the look of Williams and perhaps surprisingly has Maye as the most likely bust of the top four.

Caleb Williams: 28.9% to bust, 21.2% to be elite

Drake Maye: 49.2% to bust, 8.9% to be elite

Jayden Daniels: 37.7% to bust, 14.4% to be elite

J.J. McCarthy: 45.9% to bust, 10.1% to be elite

Bo Nix: 54.1% to bust, 6.9% to be elite

Michael Penix Jr.: 68.2% to bust, 3.5% to be elite

Spencer Rattler: 90.5% to bust, 0.5% to be elite

SO WHO COULD TRADE UP, AND WHO’LL GO AFTER WILLIAMS?

McCarthy’s rise feels like more of a smokescreen than Daniels’, and we could genuinely see either Daniels or Maye going to the Commanders.

Whoever’s left would be the favourite to join New England at No.3, with the Patriots in the unique position of needing a quarterback but also being in a great spot to trade down.

There are an enormous number of QB-needy teams below them; this is why four QBs in the first four picks is a serious possibility.

They include Minnesota (who already traded to get a second first-rounder), the New York Giants (whose decision to recommit to Daniel Jones off one OK year looked bad at the time, and worse now), Denver (who were willing to pay $US85 million to be out of the Russell Wilson business), Las Vegas (who currently have a very ugly ‘battle’ between Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew for the starting job), and maybe even Seattle (if they can get Geno Smith’s future replacement for good value) or the Los Angeles Rams (see Seattle, but for Matthew Stafford).

If one of those teams falls in love with whichever of Daniels or Maye doesn’t go to Washington, the Patriots could get a serious haul to move down, and then still nab a QB later in the draft – maybe McCarthy if he slides, otherwise Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon’s Bo Nix, both early second-round prospects.

Otherwise they can take their pick and leave the trade-down decision to Arizona at No.4.

The Cardinals have plenty of early picks so they don’t need to acquire a bunch of assets, and it may be irresistible to take Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr – the son of the legendary Colts receiver who might be just as good – or the 1b or 1c receiver options, the aforementioned Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze.

But if the Patriots go QB, teams like Minnesota will probably be willing to offer three firsts – 11, 23 and their future pick – to slide up to No.4, and like pretty much every receiver class these days, the 2024 crop is deep. The Cardinals could even get two studs later in the draft, instead of just MHJ or whoever they prefer.

It’ll depend both on Arizona’s preference and the rest of the league’s desperation. On talent, trading up to No.4 – likely for McCarthy – is an overpay. But you never know who’s gonna fall in love with a specific player.

A more sensible situation would see someone like the Vikings trading up to No.7, at Tennessee’s pick, for McCarthy since that would probably only cost them 11 and 23 (and not also the future first).

HOW OFFENCE-HEAVY WILL THIS DRAFT BE?

You’ll notice that we only mentioned quarterbacks and receivers in that opening talking point. That’s because there’s every chance the passing game will provide the top seven picks on the night.

There are very few gun defensive prospects in the 2024 draft crop, and along with the offensive weapons available, it’s going to lead to a potentially record-setting night.

No NFL Draft has ever seen more than 19 offensive players taken in the first round, but most experts have 20-plus being picked up in 2024.

It’s not just the receivers we’ve already mentioned, but gun tight end Brock Bowers out of Georgia who could go in the first half of the round, plus the second-tier wide-outs like LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr., Georgia’s Ladd McConkey (yes that’s a real name, not one of Donkey Kong’s little-known mates), Oregon’s Troy Franklin, and Texas pair Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy, among many others.

It’s a tremendous offensive line class too, with Notre Dame’s Joe Alt, Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Washington’s Troy Fautanu, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, Alabama’s JC Latham, Georgia’s Amarius Mims and Duke’s Graham Barton all earning first-round grades from most analysts.

If a record’s going to be set, it’ll be late in the round where those linemen and second-tier receivers are up for grabs, plus maybe the fifth or sixth-best QB. There won’t be any running backs taken in the first round unless something crazy happens.

There are still good defenders – edge rushers like UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, Florida State’s Jared Verse, Alabama’s Dallas Turner and Penn State’s Chop Robinson, defensive backs like Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry (yes, Kool-Aid McKinstry), and Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, plus big boys such as Texas’ Byron Murphy II and Illinois’ Jer’Zhan Newton. Just not as many.

At the very least we’re expecting a record at the top; only once have the first seven picks been offensive players, in 2021. That could easily be the first eight to 10 picks in 2024.

NFL DRAFT 2024 FIRST ROUND ORDER

1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina)

2. Washington Commanders

3. New England Patriots

4. Arizona Cardinals

5. Los Angeles Chargers

6. New York Giants

7. Tennessee Titans

8. Atlanta Falcons

9. Chicago Bears

10. New York Jets

11. Minnesota Vikings