The 2024 Olympic Games are set to kick off on July 27, marking the start of what should be a very competitive and wide-open men’s basketball tournament. Kicking things off will be an aging Spanish team against a young Australian group with the arrow pointing up.

After a tough elimination in the Group Stage of the 2023 FIBA World Cub, my Australia vs. Spain predictions believe the Boomers will make a statement here.

Australia vs Spain prediction

My best bet
Australia -4.5 (-110)

My analysis
Despite the early bounce in 2023, this group still went 3-2 while scoring 93.8 points per game — narrowly missing out on the knockout stage.

Spain’s offense trailed behind, scoring just 85.9 ppg, but it did show more on the glass and on defense. That’s where Juan and Willy Hernangomez come in — the likely leaders of this group — but Rudy Fernandez continues to decline at 39 years of age and has been relegated to a bench role this year.

I expect an improvement in Australia’s defense with the strides Josh Giddey has made at the NBA level, and while we already know Matthew Dellavedova is a stopper, he’s now got a new man on the perimeter who appears capable in Jack McVeigh.

The wing just signed a two-way deal in the NBA and should be thrust into the spotlight over the next couple of weeks, supplying even more shooting to the Boomers and helping guard a complement of outside scorers on Spain.

Despite the loss of Dante Exum to injury, this Australian team should remain lethal from deep and continue scoring at the torrid pace we saw a year ago. I think McVeigh and an improved Giddey should provide a much better look to the defense as well, and with that, I think the team with a ton of potential at the Olympics should comfortably top a team not quite what it used to be offensively.

The Spaniards went just 3-2 at last year’s FIBA World Cup, too, and relying only on defense against an offense this strong likely won’t be a winning strategy.

Mills thrills in the opening tilt

My Patty Mills prop: Over 17.5 points (+100)

International competitions involving Australia can best be called “The Patty Mills Show.”

Everyone knows Mills from his years of excellence in shooting the ball from outside with the likes of the Spurs and Nets in the NBA, and even at 35, it doesn’t appear the dynamic guard is to be doubted by any means at these Olympics.

I expect Giddey to cede some minutes to McVeigh here, and he’s not much of a scorer, which makes me slightly less excited to back him. His assist and rebound totals have been erratic as well. That’s what brings me to Mills, who’s consistently been a threat in recent international competitions, scoring 19 ppg at last year’s World Cup and 21.7 at the Tokyo Olympics.

Mills shot just 31.6% from three in his five games for Australia last year, so while you may be inclined to bet on his three-point prop, I think the points are a better option.

He’ll likely be guarded by the aging Sergio Llull at the point and should be able to create space and beat him to the cup off the dribble to keep the points coming. Dating back to the last Olympics, he’s hit this in five of his last seven games.

Australia vs Spain same-game parlay (SGP)

While the Aussies succeed on defense, they definitely struggle in the frontcourt. Australia recorded just 36.2 rebounds per game at last year’s World Cup to rank 18th among 32 nations, while Spain sat tied for seventh. The Boomers also lack the experience and strength inside to really bang with these Spanish bigs.

Aldama was a star in Olympic qualifying with eight boards per game and played a team-high 26.5 minutes per game, and as one of the offensive focuses he should get all the run he can handle here. He managed 5.8 rebounds per game in just 26.5 minutes for the Grizzlies last year, and with some weaker competition for available boards, he should shatter this total.

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Australia vs Spain odds

Odds as of 7-26.

Australia vs Spain game info

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