The federal government is ramping up warnings to Australians in Lebanon, pleading with them to leave the country right now as the risk of a regional conflagration grows.

On Wednesday night Foreign Minister Penny Wong issued a video message urging people in Lebanon to get out following the killing of a top Hezbollah commander in the country and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.

“My message to Australian citizens and residents in Lebanon is: now is the time to leave. If you are in Australia and thinking of travelling to Lebanon – do not,” the foreign minister said.

“Some commercial flights are still operating. If you can leave, you should.”

The government expects Beirut airport will be shut down if a broader conflict breaks out, cutting the main route out of the country.

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If that happens the government may be able to use ferries to get people out of Lebanon by taking them to Cyprus, as it did when it evacuated more than 5,000 Australians during the 2006 Lebanon War.

But officials are emphasising that there is no guarantee that they’ll be able to pull off such a major rescue operation, particularly if a large-scale war breaks out.

Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister Tim Watts told the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing that it could now be harder to get Australians out than it was in 2006, when the Howard government used flights, buses and ferries to evacuate people.

“Since the 2006 evacuation we’ve seen that terrible, terrible explosion at the Beirut port which has affected port capacity there,” he said.

“We’ve also seen a deterioration in the security situation of adjoining countries to Lebanon. So the context we’re operating in … [and] the plans we’ve made … are far more complex today than they were in the past.

“Don’t push your luck. Don’t wait and see how this turns out. The time to leave is now.”

Concern Australians are ignoring advice to leave

The government estimates at least 15,000 Australians remain in the country, but the real figure could be as high as 20,000 or even 30,000.

It’s difficult to pinpoint the figure because many Australians in the country live there permanently or visit very regularly, and often don’t notify the Australian government.

The foreign minister has also written to key Lebanese Australian community organisations asking them to help the government get the message out.

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The complex make-up of the Lebanese community in Australia – which includes Shia and Sunni Muslims, as well as Maronite Christians – also means the government has to work harder to get the message out to everyone.

An Australian official told the ABC on Wednesday night that many Australians in Lebanon appeared to be disregarding the travel advice, and the government was deliberately ramping up travel warnings and messaging to convince them to leave.