The group phase of the Paris Olympics is complete and the Australian Boomers have, let’s say, fallen into a quarterfinals berth.

They had a losing record, and it took the outcome of another game, as well as some complex points differential circumstances coming into play, but the Boomers survived the tournament’s group of death, limping into the final eight, where everything from here on out is a do-or-die matchup.

While the Boomers’ loss to Greece on Friday night (AEST) would’ve left a sour taste in the mouths of the program’s ever passionate fanbase, and the team finished 1-2 in their group, we still saw a good amount of positive indicators. Of course, there are a heap of question marks, too, with no real indication if Brian Goorjian and his staff will be able to answer them by the time the Boomers’ quarterfinals matchup rolls around.

Here’s what we learned about the Boomers ahead of the next stage of this competition.

We knew the Boomers’ coaching staff would lean into Daniels in a significant way when they left Matisse Thybulle at home. What we didn’t know was how effective Daniels would turn out to be.

There’s a really good argument that he’s been the Boomers’ most reliable player over these Olympics thus far. Daniels is consistently the go-to point of attack defender on the opposition’s primary perimeter threat, and he’s filled his role to perfection on the other end too.

Over the Boomers’ three group games, Daniels is averaging 11.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists a contest, while shooting 41.7 percent from downtown (on 4.0 attempts a game), all while taking on the toughest defensive assignment and performing those duties at an elite level.

“We’ve seen it for a couple years now,” Joe Ingles said of Daniels earlier in the week.

“I think if you aren’t there every day and seeing what he does on a daily basis, it’s hard to see that impact. Sometimes he might hit some shots, he might not, but that pressure up the floor makes a huge difference.

“He’s elite at what he does. Then, when you get the offence and getting to the rim, he’s dangerous.”

The easy way to paint the picture of how important Daniels is, is when he went down early in Australia’s game against Greece with a knee injury, the entire country held its breath, because his value to this team has become so apparent in such a short amount of time.

Turnovers are killing everything

The issue here isn’t just that the Boomers are turning the ball over at an exorbitant rate, but it’s the way they’re doing it.

Over the group games, we saw a heap of live ball turnovers that led to easy baskets for the opposing team. Against Canada, the Boomers turned it over 18 times, which was good for 28 points of turnovers for their opposition. Against Greece, Australia coughed it up 16 times; the Greeks had 20 points off turnovers.

“Horrible shots, turnovers,” Goorjian said after his team’s loss to Greece.

“If the court is open, you’ve got no chance [stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo]. If the court is open, you’ve got no chance. In the second half we got our defence set. In the first half we didn’t.”

The problem is two-fold here. The Boomers’ halfcourt offence isn’t potent enough to be giving up valuable possessions like that. They’re currently third in the Olympic field in turnovers a game – 16.7 per game – which is a meaningful amount of scoring opportunities the team is abandoning.

The live ball turnovers are especially harmful for these Boomers, who ostensibly came into this tournament with defence and grit as the cornerstone of its identity, but it’s difficult to guard when you’re consistently giving runouts to teams. Not being able to operate in traditional defensive sets in the halfcourt then makes it impossible to get stops and run, which is another thing these Boomers are built to do in stretches.

We’re then confronted with a never-ending cycle: the turnovers are killing the defence, which is killing the offence, which is killing the defence, and so on.

play

Can the Boomers take any positives from advancing after Greece defeat?

Kane Pitman recaps a night of mixed emotions for Australia’s men’s basketball team, who advance through Group A despite losing to Greece.

Landale and Giddey stepping up

Through the group phase, Landale has been Australia’s most effective and consistent player.

The big-man’s size down low has been a handful for opposing teams; seemingly unstoppable when he gets any deep post catch, while also showing his elite rolling/slipping skillset. Landale has an uncanny ability to keep balls alive with his activity on the offensive glass, adding an extra layer of shot creation to a Boomers team that can sometimes struggle in the halfcourt.

Over the Boomers’ three games, Landale is averaging 17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game, connecting consistently with Giddey, with that duo still being the team’s most reliable offensive option.

“He’s got a fire about him,” Kay said about Landale.

“You can see it in the warmups. You can see it everyday at training. He’s really brought that to this group. He’s also got composure about him.”

The only real negative about Landale’s Olympics is the foul trouble he can sometimes descend into. He averaged 3.3 fouls per game over the Boomers’ first trio of contests, and the team really does feel it when the centre heads to the bench, especially because there’s no sure-fire production from the backup in his position.

As for Giddey, he’s led this team from the front and really taken the reins of the Boomers during this campaign.

The point guard is averaging 15.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game, while shooting an impressive 42.9 percent from downtown (on 4.7 attempts a contest).

Giddey has been able to consistently get downhill, creating for himself and others on a regular basis. We’ve seen him attack mismatches, whether it’s taking them off the dribble, or finding his off-the-dribble game, especially from beyond the three-point line.

Turnovers remain an issue for Giddey — he’s averaging 4.3 a game — and that’s perhaps the only thing stopping him from getting to that next level on this stage, but the Boomers’ staff would be looking to find that balance between being conservative with the ball and allowing their point guard to be creative.

Going into the quarterfinals, Giddey and Landale have been the Boomers’ two best players, and how their partnership continues to grow could be the thing that ultimately determines how far this team goes at these Olympics.

Which lineups/combinations are working… and why?

There would be some concern that, as the Boomers prepare for the quarterfinals, there are still a heap of questions on which lineups and combinations are most effective.

Goorjian has gone with the same starting lineup for every game — Giddey, Mills, Daniels, Kay, and Landale — but it’s clear that’s not the Boomers’ most ideal five-man unit. One of Giddey or Mills generally heads to the bench early, with the minutes of the Boomers’ two starting guards largely staggered for the remainder of games.

Some of the rotation seems relatively fixed, at least when it comes to the initial substitutions. Danté Exum, for example, is locked in as the backup point guard, and he’s been extremely effective in his role. Exum’s ability as a high-level FIBA initiator allows Mills to continue playing off the ball as a spot-up threat and screen-setter as opposed to as a ball-handler, where he’s had some struggles.

Josh Green is the first wing off the bench, though that may be a wait-and-see, given his form on the offensive end of late. Jack McVeigh comes in at the four spot in place of Kay — he’s provided a significant shooting punch, currently at 50% (on 4.7 attempts a game) — while Will Magnay generally gets the first look at the back-up five spot.

The game against Greece saw some different wrinkles thrown in. Matthew Dellavedova came in and played next to the primary playmaker — taking the Green role — while Duop Reath got a look at the four next to Landale.

The experimenting is ongoing — Reath at the four, for example, doesn’t seem sustainable from a defensive standpoint — and it’s all about figuring out what works; nothing seems set in stone, but there have been some indicators of what is and isn’t effective.

Lineups with Giddey, Exum, and Daniels look to have the requisite creation, as well as the length and athleticism to be effective on the defensive end. Throw in the shooting of McVeigh, and the imposing inside presence of Landale and that’s a group that’s balanced and has largely been effective. We saw a variation of it against Greece, with Dellavedova in for Daniels; the defensive intensity and secondary playmaking of the Melbourne United guard seemed to give the Boomers’ offence more pop. For a team that doesn’t have many natural scorers, multiple creators on the floor at the same time has proved to be relatively helpful when it comes to keeping the scoreboard ticking.

“That’s the reason we brought him here,” Goorjian said of Dellavedova.

“If this thing gets nasty or it gets hairy and we lose our way, we know he’ll steady us. We just thought from a defensive standpoint, to keep the pressure on, you bring him in there. We enhance our defence and we get through our system better.”

Getting production out of that four spot has been a challenge for Australia, and Goorjian threw a look out there at the end of the game against Greece that may be a sign of what’s to come. The lineup featured Mills, Daniels, Giddey, Exum, and Landale, with the Boomers going small to end the game.

Playing a more traditional wing at the four may be something Goorjian leans into more as the Olympics progresses, because the positional size and general versatility of the roster allows for it.

Kay is generally a solid defender but has been a non-factor offensively, and especially when it comes to shooting the ball; he’s yet to make a three, on his 1.7 attempts a game from downtown. Going small may be the most effective way to get output from that position, while also being able to exhibit more flexible, switchable defensive lineups.