Serbia will battle Australia in the men’s basketball quarterfinals. One team will advance to the semifinals as we share our Olympics odds series and make a Serbia-Australia prediction and pick.

Serbia went 2-1 in the group stage to advance to the quarterfinals. Initially, they stumbled against the United States, losing 110-84 to start. The Serbian squad then destroyed Puerto Rico 107-66 and then defeated South Sudan 96-85. Ultimately, they overcame that first loss and have bounced back nicely.

Serbia is looking to cement itself in the medal consideration. Curiously, a win here can garner a rematch with the United States if they can get past Brazil.

Australia stumbled in the group stage, going 1-2. Initially, things looked good, and they beat Spain 92-80. But the Aussies fell 93-83 to Canada before losing 77-71 to Greece. Significantly, they will need to do more if they want to overcome Serbia.

Australia has not found its footing yet. Regardless, the Aussies have a golden chance to pull one off here and then face off against one of the top gold-medal contenders if the US advances.

Serbia leads the head-to-head series 3-1. Coincidentally, the countries faced off twice in the 2016 Olympics, with Australia winning 95-80 in the first round before Serbia repaid the favor 87-61 in the quarterfinals.

Here are the 2024 Olympics Men’s/Women’s basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Olympics Odds: Serbia-Australia Basketball Odds

Serbia: -7.5 (-114)

Moneyline: -350

Australia: +7.5 (-106)

Moneyline: +265

Over: 174.5 (-110)

Under: 174.5 (-110)

How to Watch Serbia vs. Australia in Paris 

Time: 8:30 AM ET/5:30 AM PT

TV: CNBC and Peacock

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Serbia Will Cover the Spread/Win

The loss to the USA proved how much of an impact Nikola Jokic has on the Serbian team. When Jokic was on the court, the score was 81-81. Whenever Jokic was on the bench, the Americans outscored them 29-3.

Jokic is one of the best players on the planet, so this is not surprising. But when he is not on the court, things get dicey. Jokic is currently averaging 18.7 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists per game. He will look to do more on the court and get his teammates involved. That means that Bogdan Bogdanovic must do more. So far, he is averaging 19 points and 3.7 assists per game. Bogdanovic is a key player for the Serbian National Team and must do more to help Jokic out. Meanwhile, Vasilijie Micic must also step up. He is averaging 13 points and 5.3 assists per game.

Serbia cannot fall behind. Therefore, the best way to counter an early hole is to convert on shooting opportunities and win the board battle. This is where Jokic comes in. If he can remain one of the biggest big men, he will certainly help Serbia control the flow of the game and help them win.

Serbia will cover the spread and win this game if they can find some supplementary scoring in addition to Jokic while controlling the action. Additionally, they need to defend the rim and prevent Australia from getting any scoring chances.

Why Australia Will Cover the Spread/Win

Australia has stumbled and bumbled its way into the knockout stage. No, it has not been pretty. But the Aussies are resilient and hope to keep producing. To do this, they need their best players to remain consistent.

Jock Landale has been one of the surprising stars of the Olympics. So far, he is averaging 17.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, showing how much of a force he is around the basket. Josh Giddey has continued to be solid for the Australian squad. He is averaging 15 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game. The ageless Patty Mills has averaged 13.3 points per game. Will this be his final Olympic game?

To prevent Serbia from winning, Australia must come up with an answer against Jokic. Furthermore, they need to convert on all their chances early to prevent any slides. This means that they must set the pace of the game.

Australia will cover the spread and possibly win this game if Landale can convert his chances while Giddey and Mills can supplement him. Then, the Aussies must contain Jokic.

Final Serbia-Australia Prediction & Pick

Despite being basically a one-man team, Serbia has played exceptional basketball since the loss to the United States. Teams have still been unable to contain Jokic, which is an all-too-familiar story, especially if you have watched him represent the Denver Nuggets. Despite having some solid players, there are no stars on the Australian squad. Can Landale, Giddey, or Mills match up at all with Jokic? Consequently, we believe the answer is no. Expect Serbia to once again play a strong fundamental game and push away from the Aussies in the final quarter.

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Final Serbia-Australia Prediction & Pick: Serbia: -7.5 (-114)