Now, we are ready for a shootout. Patty Mills averaged 13.3 points in the group stage at the Pierre Mauroy Stadium, while making just 7-of-17 shots from beyond the three-point line.

However, Mills already has a 28-point game against Serbia this summer. When the two teams had their friendly game in Abu Dhabi, it was vintage Patty who led Australia to a double-digit win over Svetislav Pesic’s team a week before the Olympics.

Mills will play his fifth Olympic Quarter-Final. Only Andrew Gaze, Luis Scola, Pau Gasol and Rudy Fernandez have five appearances in the Quarter-Finals, and Mills’s career average suggests he puts up 22.0 points in this phase.

On the other side of the scale, Serbian fans will point their finger to the lineups from that friendly game in Abu Dhabi and say that missing Bogdan Bogdanovic makes Serbia a whole different team.

Bogdanovic has been productive so far at the 2024 Olympics, getting 19.0 points, with 4.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists, while shooting 54 percent from the field, 53 percent from deep on six attempts per game, and making 89 percent of his free throws.

The idea is clear why we picked this matchup. Whoever gets hot of these two, will be that much closer to winning the game.

X-factors

Australia’s youth vs Serbia’s ball pressure

Being a point guard means you have the responsibility of orchestrating your whole team, which is why it takes some time to develop young players at “one,” as you want them to be as mature as possible.

Coach Brian Goorjian said that his youngsters Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels struggled against Greece because they are just not as experienced at this level as the Greek point guards, and now they face a tougher challenge.

That’s because coach Pesic loves putting a lot of pressure on the ball with his lefty trio. Aleksa Avramovic usually starts on the toughest opposing guard, but then Ognjen Dobric has the tools to take over.

Against South Sudan, Marko Guduric was there off the bench to provide more defense on Carlik Jones, and all three of them know how to be physical while avoiding foul trouble.

Huge test for Giddey and Daniels, especially after coach Goorjian put an emphasis on that area.

Stats don’t lie

Both teams love the open court, and they will search for fast break points every single time. Even if it means Nikola Jokic has to throw a full court pass after opponent’s made free throws, or if Josh Giddey gets the defensive rebound and goes coast to coast.

Serbia score 21.3 fast break points per game, which means Australia will have to control their turnovers as much as possible in this one. They averaged 16.7 per game in the group stage.

Meanwhile, Jock Landale, Nick Kay and other bigs are especially dangerous in offensive rebounding. Australia averaged 11.3 boards on that end, getting 13.3 seconds chance points per game – that is the only non-shooting area in which they were better than Serbia during pool play.

Past matchups