We have three weeks left of premium PGA TOUR golf left in 2024. The FedEx Cup regular season is over and now we head to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The top 70 on the season long points list will fight against elimination as only the top 50 move on to the BMW Championship. Four rounds at TPC Southwind will determine who those 50 will be. When the odds board dropped on Monday morning, here’s what grabbed oour attention.

The guys are losing faith at the top of the betting board, and I don’t blame them. Ludvig Åberg (+2000) and Collin Morikawa (+1400) have consistently contended in the last couple of months and not won.

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My “stay away” selection at the St. Jude sits a little further down the betting board.

Russell Henley is going to grab a lot of attention from the gambling guys on social media. At first it makes sense. TPC Southwind is covered in Bermudagrass greens, favors accuracy over length, and he’s competed there six times.

Henley has missed the cut in three of those starts and one of his made cuts was a no-cut event last year. Something certainly doesn’t work for Russell and at +4000 on the odds board he’s below Sungjae Im (+4500), Billy Horschel (+4500), Aaron Rai (+4500), and Sahith Theegala (+5000). I know Henley has made a nice run in the last two majors, but will he win?

I prefer a proven winner in that price range at +5000; Justin Thomas. Thomas is from the Midwest region and won the WGC St. Jude in 2020 against an elite field. In four TPC Southwind starts, JT has never finished higher than 26th and has two more top-15 results to go along with that win. This par 70 parkland layout favors Justin’s style of scoring. Ball-striking over putting puts Thomas in a place where he can separate. When you compare Bermudagrass results along with par-70 scorecards, JT rates extremely high.

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Granted he’s no Scottie Scheffler, but at 13 times the price, I’ll take my chances a little deeper down the board based upon fit and form. One last edge, Thomas missed the playoffs last year. He’ll have extra motivation coming in sitting at 19th on the FedEx Cup point standings to prove last year was an outlier performance. I’m taking Justin Thomas (+5000) on Monday before the bettors compare course fit and drive that value down. Markets continue to adjust against our early leans so watch the weekly video with Golf Digest betting experts Chris Powers and Steve Hennessey. Then get those wagers in before the board beats you this week!

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com