Another week, another winner in the Golf Digest expert picks column. Brandon Gdula gets on the board for the first time in 2024 with his correct prediction of Hideki Matsuyama to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship at 35-1. For those keeping track, we’ve now correctly predicted the last three winners on the PGA Tour. When you’re hot, you’re hot.

Of course, nobody wants to hear about last week, the week before that, or the week before that. You’re only as good as your next winner, and we’re hopeful that we can bring you a fourth in a row at the BMW Championship.

Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Castle Pines, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.

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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 BMW Championship.

BMW Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions 

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Viktor Hovland (18-1, FanDuel) — Castle Pines looks long on paper, but it’s not a bomber’s paradise. Consistent ball-striking will be key here. Victor hits consistent cuts, and this course favors a left-to-right ball flight like most Nicklaus designs. He also seems to be in good form, so I like him this week.

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Viktor Hovland (18-1, FanDuel) — Already with a win at a Nicklaus course to his credit, mining winners in the FedEx Cup over the years has been simple: Ride the recent form. Hovland turned his irons around for the first time in four starts and suddenly, he’s back at the top of a leaderboard. If he can do it again, he’ll probably win as the putter has been on fire the last two months.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (16-1, FanDuel) — Morikawa’s season has been stellar, but he hasn’t won since last October. In 2024, he has six top-five finishes in 20 starts, and he has played well at higher-elevation courses in the past. Morikawa is also one of just three golfers in the field to rank top 15 in strokes-gained/tee-to-green and strokes-gained/putting over the last 50 rounds, via datagolf.

Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Viktor Hovland (18-1, FanDuel) — Here comes Viktor Hovland again. Runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude, Hovland played the final 54 holes at 15-under par. What has been a rollercoaster season for the nifty Norwegian seems to be seriously trending. The defending BMW Championship winner finished top five in Memphis on approach and off the tee. A top 30 putter on tour, I love the fit at Castle Pines. Most will point toward Viktor’s inconsistency this season. I’m looking at where he has been great; third at Valhalla and 15th at Muirfield Village. Two incredible Jack Nicklaus designs and great comp courses for Castle Pines Golf Club.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Xander Schauffele (+600, Bet365) — Scottie and Xander have been trading breakthroughs all season, and after Scottie’s Olympics win, it’s Xander’s turn to tighten up the FedEx Cup sprint and put the pressure on in the Player of the Year race. I like Hovland, too, but short game will likely be important with a variety of different lies around the greens, so Xander’s all-around game makes him the bet for me.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Tony Finau (33-1, FanDuel) — I haven’t been sipping on any of the Tony Finau Kool Aid recently, but I’m ready to dive in at 33-1 after Finau just posted his seventh top 20 in his last eight starts. The approach numbers have been very good, and up until last week, the putter was behaving. This week’s he’s on bent, his favorite surface, and he has plenty of experience playing at elevation back home in Utah.

Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Patrick Cantlay (18-1, FanDuel) — I was on Patrick Cantlay last week, and while his opening round prevented him from truly contending, I was highly impressed with how Cantlay rebounded. The two-time BMW Championship winner gained strokes in all four major categories, and he is now back on Bentgrass, his preferred putting surface.

Past results: The panel is SCORCHING hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year. That means we’ve correctly predicted the winner in three straight events. Let’s make it an even four in a row at the BMW.

Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts! 

BMW Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win 

Caddie: Aaron Rai (50-1, FanDuel) — How can you not love one of the hottest golfers in the world at this number? It’s unbelievable value for someone who is probably a top-five ranked golfer in the world in the last six months. If he isn’t in contention, I’ll be shocked.

Mayo: Taylor Pendrith (100-1, FanDuel) — With a Presidents Cup spot likely on the line with another solid result (and a giant pay day to boot), Pendrith is peaking at the right time. He’s gained with his irons in five straight and on the greens in 17 of his past 19 starts. His driver let him down BIGLY in Memphis last week, but a bomb-and-gauge approach this week may pay large dividends if the rest of his game remains the same.

Gdula: Sungjae Im (50-1, FanDuel) — Im’s number is longer than it should be due to weak finishes of late. The finishes are bogged down by some weaker wedge play and off-and-on ball-striking. The building blocks for a great run are there as he solidifies his starting strokes for the tour Championship next week.

Stewart: Billy Horschel (40-1, FanDuel) — After three straight top 10s, Billy Horschel has my attention. Winner at Corales in April, what a difference a year makes. Last summer, Horschel missed the FedEx Cup playoffs and now he’s projected to see Atlanta again ranked 19th in the standings. Billy has been a well-rounded show this season. He is gaining positively in all major strokes-gained categories. The 2014 FedEx Cup champion knows how to close a season. With an incredible ability to score, I love the course fit in Colorado. While guys are struggling to get it close at altitude, Horschel will grind out sub-par scores.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Will Zalatoris (75-1, FanDuel) — It doesn’t take much to rope me back in on Willy Z. He gained strokes in the ball-striking categories last week, and this is going to be a major-type test, which is right up Willy Z’s wheelhouse. At this price in a 50-man field, it’s worth the shot.

Powers, Golf Digest: Will Zalatoris (75-1, FanDuel) — It’s probably still too early, but I’d much rather be early on a juicy number than late on a bad number. And it wasn’t like that T-12 last week was fluke-ish. He gained in every major strokes-gained category including putting (!). Plus, if this is going to be an endurance test like some players have mentioned due to the altitude, Zalatoris is one of the more well-rested players in this field, having played only four of the last seven weeks.

Lack: Will Zalatoris (75-1, FanDuel) — Last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Will Zalatoris gained strokes in all four major categories for the first time since the Genesis Invitational in February. If Zalatoris is on his way back to becoming one of the best players in the world, this may be the last time we see this type of price next to his name.

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BMW Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading 

Caddie: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — Pinehurst devastated Rory. He finished second to last last week. The U.S. Open hangover might linger for a while, and I have no faith in him this week. Avoid him this week once again.

Mayo: Collin Morikawa (14-1, BetMGM) — Normally I would love him at this venue, but the playoffs are all about form and Morikawa’s ball-striking has been well below average for three straight starts now.

Gdula: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — Of the four favorites, Rory is the one I’m least likely to be on. It’s not just last week’s showing but rather the competition he’s facing. McIlroy also seems to reduce his approach play metrics in higher elevation situations, and he’s a better Bermuda putter than he is on bent/poa.

Stewart: Collin Morikawa (14-1, BetMGM) — I wrote about this on Monday for the weekly Odds Drop article, but why can’t Collin Morikawa close one of these tournaments? He’s been the fourth betting favorite in almost every event since the Masters. In that time, he has not rewarded us with a win. His last two starts are trending in the wrong direction—24th at the Olympics against a weak field and 22nd at the St. Jude, his iron game is off. I’m not betting a guy who cannot hit his carry distances at sea level let alone at 6,000 feet. Once again in the mid-teens, I’ll be surprised if his finishing position beats his pre-tournament odds for the first time since the Scottish Open.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — The numbers were all-time bad for Rory last week, it would be a surprise for him to turn everything around in a big way and top all these other elites who are trending.

Powers, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (14-1, BetMGM) — Looks like we’re all done chasing the elusive 2024 victory for Morikawa, which probably means he’s finally going to get it done now. I still don’t see it happening, as he’s coming off his worst ball-striking week of the season.

Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (16-1, BetMGM) — As impressive as Hideki Matsuyama’s winning performance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship was last week, I’m expecting a letdown in Colorado. Matsuyama recorded the best putting performance of his career in Memphis, and regression feels imminent on a golf course that may not suit his game quite as well as TPC Southwind.

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BMW Championship picks 2024: Matchups 

Caddie: Wyndham Clark (-152) over Adam Scott (Bet365) — How can you not love the local Colorado boy qualifying for this tournament? He will be fired up to play in front of his home crowd. He attended high school just down the road from Castle Pines, so the altitude won’t be an issue either. Bank on the local.

Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (-110) over Ludvig Aberg (Bet365) — While it was Aberg’s short game which sank him in Memphis, it’s become a trend over his past few starts. Whereas Fleetwood has been elite tee-to-green yet has seen the wheels come off his putter. Tommy lost a career worst eight strokes on the green at the St. Jude. It’s quite unlikely that happens again.

Gdula: Taylor Pendrith (-115) over Austin Eckroat (FanDuel) — Pendrith is trending up and is the longer driver, better iron player, and better putter in this matchup.

Stewart: Aaron Rai (-120) over Cameron Young (Bet365) — It’s insane how well Aaron Rai is playing this year. In his last five starts, Rai has won the Wyndham Championship and is gaining an average of seven shots (!) on the field per event. On the other hand, Cameron Young can’t seem to put it all together. Young is coming off three very mediocre starts by his standards. On a course like Castle Pines, I have concerns about Young, who is losing 2.5 strokes per start with the flat stick while Rai is gaining 3.5 with his putter. Take the recent tour winner in this tournament matchup.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (+125) over Scottie Scheffler (Bet365) — The RickRunGood.com head-to-head predictor actually makes Xander a slight favorite over Scottie over the past 36 rounds. I’ll go with my pick to win over Scottie, who’s still looking shaky on the greens.

Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (+110) over Russell Henley (Bet365) — Henley’s consistency is why he’s the favorite here, but I’m happy to take a shot on a potential JT ceiling week after seeing how well he struck it in Memphis.

Lack: Viktor Hovland (+105) over Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as I have already sung Viktor Hovland’s praises as my top-10 lock (below), while Hideki Matsuyama is a fade. Hovland possesses the power off the tee to dominate Castle Pines, while Hideki typically does his best work on accuracy over distance courses.

Matchup Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Hoge (-110) over Homa); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Hoge (-110) over Homa); Lack: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 20-11-2 (up 6.56 units); Caddie: 20-12-0 (up 6.29 units); Gdula: 18-12-3 (up 3.83 units); Hennessey: 17-12-4 (up 3.45 units); Powers: 16-14-2 (up 1.66 units); Mayo: 17-15-1 (up 1.61 units); Stewart: 13-19-1 (down 6.96 units)

BMW Championship picks 2024: Top 10s 

Caddie: Ludvig Aberg (+162, Bet365) — This guy is a machine. Perfect swing, beautiful ball-striker and loads of confidence. Deadly combination. With a field of only 50 I see him top-tenning easily.

Mayo: Wyndham Clark (+162, Bet365) — A Colorado local, Clark will be familiar with the fairways and greens, and while he gets piled on for his struggles in majors this year, he’s actually been great recently with three top 10s in his past four starts with four top 10s (including a win) in in past seven signature event starts. While this isn’t a signature event is the same basic concept except with a smaller field.

Gdula: Tony Finau (+230, FanDuel) — Finau’s golfing at a top-five rate over the last three months among this field, and his irons are really on point. He’s a better bentgrass/poa putter than he is on Bermuda, and should be accustomed to the elevation.

Stewart: Eric Cole (+700, BetRivers) — Watch out when Eric Cole gets going. The 2023 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year closed 2023 with four top-four finishes in five starts. With three top 10s in his last six starts, I see Cole continuing to play well. Cole gains an average of six strokes per week with his irons, wedges, and putter. At elevation, his length off the tee won’t hold him back. Castle Pines is going to yield tons of sub-par scores. After a Sunday 63 at St. Jude there’s no doubt Eric can go low right now.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tony Finau (+230, FanDuel) — The Utah native is very used to playing at extreme altitude and adjusting for distance control. And Finau’s been on a tear with top-10s, so this is a great price in a small field.

Powers, Golf Digest: Nick Dunlap (+375, Bet365) — Playing the “he needs a big finish to make it to the Tour Championship” angle rarely works, but I feel it’s a fair angle to play for this up-and-coming stud. He belongs there already but didn’t get the points for his win as an amateur, which is nonsensical. Instead of complaining, though, he responded with a huge T-5 last week to sneak into the BMW and I’m betting on a repeat of that performance to sneak into East Lake. The vibes should be very positive for Dunlap in Colorado, the same state he won his U.S. Amateur in.

Lack: Viktor Hovland (+150, DraftKings) — Viktor Hovland recorded his best finish of the season last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and he did it in a sustainable way. When Hovland is at his best, he’s an elite ball-striker, a plus putter, and neutral around the greens. The young Norwegian’s stat line last week mimicked vintage Hovland, and I’m expecting another showing in Colorado.

Top-10 results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Everybody: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 11 for 33 (up 67.35 units); Mayo: 6 for 33 (down 5.5 units); Powers: 6 for 33 (down 5.6 units); Caddie: 6 for 32 (down 7.55 units); Stewart: 6 for 33 (down 8.42 units); Gdula: 5 for 33 (down 8.9 units); Lack: 6 for 33 (down 12.55 units)

About our experts 

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. 

Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. 

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports 

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com