ATLANTA — The Scottie Scheffler Express keeps rolling along, and only a slip in the shower, a mysterious disappearance of his equipment 30 seconds before his tee time, or ahem, some freak traffic incident entering the grounds of East Lake Golf Club can prevent him from his appointed $25 million payday in the Tour Championship.

Building on the head start he was granted at the outset of this playoff finale, Scheffler is in firm control and poised to win the FedEx Cup title and the richest first prize in PGA Tour history. With three closing birdies to cap a third-round five-under 66 on Saturday, Scheffler stands at 26 under par, five clear of his nearest pursuer, Collin Morikawa. Sahith Theegala, who called a two-shot penalty on himself on the third hole, is next, nine behind, while Xander Schauffele is 10 back.

Morikawa, after a 67, still holds the edge in raw score at 17-under 196, one better than Scheffler, so make of that what you will—and we’ll get there momentarily. Theegala has posted 199 through 54 holes, thanks to a remarkable bounce-back on the inward nine in which he birdied seven of his final eight holes, including the last five, to shoot 66.

So, here’s what we make of the fact that Scheffler for the third year in a row arrived at East Lake with the lowest score in the staggered-start format: He earned it. With six wins, including the Masters, he’s been the dominant player this season, and you can be willfully blind to the fact he is the No. 1 player in the world by a wide margin and still know this.

Sure, his five-stroke lead has been built artificially, but his quest for the tour’s season-long title has fallen short the previous two years—including 2022 when he fumbled a six-shot lead in the final round and lost to Rory McIlroy.

Could it happen again? Well, it’s golf, boys and girls. Anything can happen. Will it? Um, we have our doubts. Also the winner of the Olympic golf medal, Scheffler sounds pretty comfortable.

“Keep doing what I’ve been doing, staying in the moment, staying patient out there,” Scheffler said of his strategy for Sunday’s final round, which begins earlier because of the threat of inclement weather. “I’ve bogeyed the first hole two of the last three days, and both times when I bogeyed the first hole I didn’t make any bogeys after that, so that’s kind of good momentum for me.

“I feel like I’ve done a lot of stuff well and played solid, so I’m looking forward to the challenge of trying to finish off the tournament tomorrow and continuing to do that.”

Collin Morikawa watches his shot from a bunker on the 16th hole.

Ben Jared

It’s really just a two-man race, and for the sake of granting that unpredictability is a predictable facet of golf, Morikawa has to enter the final round not conceding anything. “It’s going to be very hard, but I believe in myself that I can do it,” the California native said. “Five shots is a lot, but two-shot swings happen. I think I’ve seen a couple over the past few days.”

He saw some swings Saturday he probably didn’t like.

A tee shot to three feet at 15 to set up a birdie helped Morikawa shake off a swing of emotion at the par-5 14th hole, where he three-putted for par from 60 feet while Scheffler buried a 20-footer for birdie after driving into the rough and being forced to lay up.

This is why it’s difficult to see Scheffler losing

At the par-4 17th hole, Scheffler pushed a drive that was almost up against a tree and sitting on wood chips. Lucky break, actually. “It was nice that the ball there ended up in the mulch,” said the native Texan. “I had a clean lie in the mulch, and so kind of an uphill, right-to-left lie, which can be challenging with the right pin. Did a good job of hitting it in there left of the pin and we did a good job of judging the distance.”

Indeed, he hit it to 10 feet and sank the putt to counter Morikawa’s birdie from six feet.

This is why it’s difficult to see Scheffler losing

There’s considerably more pressure in a final round when it’s your tournament to lose, but the way Scottie Scheffler has played this year, every tournament seems like it’s his to lose.

Which is why it’s difficult to see him losing.

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com