The U.S. Solheim Cup team travels to just outside Washington, D.C., on an historic cold streak, winless in the biennial match-play event in the last three meetings. American assistant captain Angela Stanford has had enough of it. The fiery six-time Cup veteran as a player was definitive when asked what was on the line in this year’s competition.

“There’s only one way this can go,” Stanford proclaimed. “I mean, we have to win.”

The only thing stopping Stanford from pushing this mantra onto the team? Her captain, Stacy Lewis, asked Stanford to reel it in until they reached Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Gainesville, Va., this week for the three-day Solheim Cup that begins on Friday. With a second playing of the Cup in 12 months as the competition moves to even-numbered years to avoid going up against the Ryder Cup, the Europeans are coming off a 14-14 tie in Spain in 2023 that allowed them to retain the Cup.

Both rosters are much the same as a year ago—19 of the 24 players return, along with Lewis and European captain Suzann Pettersen. Here’s a look, then, at what’s on the line at the 2024 Solheim Cup:

What happened last year?

Team Europe captain Suzann Pettersen celebrates with the Solheim Cup after her team retained the trophy with a 14-14 tie.

Stuart Franklin

A simple question that, oddly, would get you a different answer from each of the team captains. The 14-14 tie at Finca Cortesin was a first in Solheim history and a chance to set a precedent. The Ryder Cup has had two 14-14 finishes that counted as ties in the record book, with the previous winning team “retaining” the Cup. The Solheim didn’t deviate from the Ryder, so the Europeans kept the Cup in ‘23, thanks to their win in 2021.

Pettersen refers to this week as a chance for a Euro four-peat. Lewis mentions trying to get the Cup back for the first time since Europe started its streak in 2019, opening and closing her press conference for the Americans captain’s picks with the unofficial slogan of “unfinished business.”

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Only one other time have captains met for a second straight time, with a caveat that on the first go-around one of them didn’t finish. Going back to 1990 and 1992, Kathy Whitworth and Mickey Walker led the U.S. and European teams, respectively. But Whitworth left Dalmahoy Country Club in Scotland, the day the Americans arrived after getting the news her mother passed away. In those yars, both teams ended up winning at home.

What’s the longest a team has kept the Cup?

A threepeat, which the American team has done twice in its history, winning in 1994, 1996 and 1998, as well as 2005, 2007 and 2009. The European team is currently holding the Cup for three straight Solheims for the first time. A victory this week would make Europe’s current run the longest time a Cup has ever been held by either team.

The Europeans can make history. How did they get here?

Through some mostly thin margins since 2019. The Europeans doused the Americans attempt to win three in a row with a 14½-13½ victory at Gleneagles, with then-World No. 632 Pettersen holing the winning six-footer to walk off into retirement. The Europeans won for their second time ever on U.S. soil in 2021 at Inverness Club, 15-13, holding off the Americans who rallied to win four of the last five singles matches.

Last year’s tie came to be after a heroic late Sunday stand by Europe’s Caroline Hedwall, who only played one team session, winning five of the last six holes to beat Ally Ewing. Fittingly, Spaniard Carlota Ciganda beat Nelly Korda on Nos. 16 and 17 to secure the 14th point in her homeland.

How much pressure is Team USA under this week?

World No. 1 Nelly Korda has yet to add a Solheim Cup win to her impressive resume.

Angel Martinez

An immense amount. Beyond losing once again being the on-paper favorite, with the team averaging 26.8 in the Rolex Women’s Rankings compared to the Euros at 40.5, the winning drought has already had a pervasive effect on the American program. The team is running out of past Solheim winners. The only two returning veterans who have won are Lexi Thompson, competing in her seventh Solheim, and Alison Lee, who won in her rookie Solheim in 2015 and hadn’t played on the team since.

If the U.S. doesn’t take the Cup back this year, they could conceivably field a team with no past Solheim winners heading to the Netherlands in 2026. There are no clear corrective steps for the team to take after this year either. Lewis already pulled the lever of bringing analytics into her pairings decisions, thanks to having KPMG Performance Insights lead analyst Justin Ray run statistics to maximize the on-paper odds.

One could argue for more captain’s picks, with the women’s American program only using three compared to the men’s six, but there isn’t a fair roster construction philosophy question to really answer because of the lack of American depth. The only real decision Lewis faced was choosing between three-time Solheim veteran Angel Yin and Sarah Schmelzel. If there was a Justin Thomas equivalent (17-7-4 combined team record), he would never be left off the women’s roster like he was for the President’s Cup.

Lewis feels there is a drag on the American team with the lack of winning. A Solheim victory celebration is a great motivator, and Lewis hopes raising the Cup again reinvigorates her players energy for one of the LPGA’s biggest tournaments.

“Do I think we need to win one? I do,” Lewis said. “I think these players need to win one, just more for them and kind of their psyche and their just excitement about the event.”

How will the Americans end their drought?

Rose Zhang could give the American team a big lift if she returns to the match-play form from her amateur days.

Angel Martinez

They’re formidable at home with a stout 7-2 record in matches played stateside. The Americans also have the best players in the game, on paper. Korda, in the midst of a six-win season and a World No. 1 ranking, takes her talents to D.C., with a Solheim being one of the few things she has yet to win. She is backed up by a finally healthy World No. 2 Lilia Vu and an emerging Lauren Coughlin, a 31-year-old Solheim rookie who has won twice this season and playing in her native Virginia. Those three combined for 10 of the 11 American 2024 LPGA victories on the Solheim roster, one of their most overwhelming edges compared to the Euros, who have no LPGA wins this season.

They should also expect a regression to the match play mean for Rose Zhang, who earned only half a point over three matches in her Solheim debut last year. One of the greatest amateur players in golf history was 8-2-2 in her final three amateur team-match-play events, including a commanding 4-0-1 run in the 2021 Curtis Cup.

Lewis gets to use a refined analytics department after working with Ray as a stats guru for the first time at last year’s Solheim to help make pairings selections. It proved effective from the jump in 2023, with the U.S. getting off to a 4-0 start in the opening foursomes, the first time the American team swept a Friday morning session. The charge fueled the Americans winning foursomes overall 6-2, beating Team Europe in the format for the first time since 2007.

Of course, the Solheim is not played on a spreadsheet, a reminder Lewis will impart to her 12 players.

“I will tell the team, on paper, we’re supposed to win,” Lewis said. “But that’s not what wins this thing. What wins this thing is the attitude, is the fighting through the hard times, it’s the adversity, that’s what wins the Solheim Cup.”

Why should the Europeans win?

Leona Maguire celebrates winning her singles match in the 2023 Solheim Cup.

Stuart Franklin

They have ironwoman Leona Maguire, who changes from a tour-winning-level player on the week-to-week grind of the LPGA to a top world talent in the Solheim (Think Ian Poulter in the Ryder Cup). Maguire has played in every session the last two Cups and has a 2-0-0 singles matches record. In the nine other instances since 2007, the European team has had a player go all five sessions and they’ve struggled to a combined 2-8-1 in singles. The 29-year-old Irishwoman is an all-around Solheim titan with an impressive 7-2-1 record.

Despite the Europeans’ paltry overall win-loss record in the U.S., they’ve won two of their last three road Solheim matchups by an average of five points. They stomped the U.S. 18-10 in 2013 in Colorado, the largest margin of victory in Cup history, and won the 2021 match by two in Iowa.

The foursomes sessions should regress to a closer affair than the four points the Americans beat the Euros by last year. Over the last 10 Cups, the average foursomes score is 4½-3½, with the Europeans winning the format six times along with two ties.

They also overwhelmingly hold the experience advantage, having a combined 38 past appearances compared to the Americans’ 22, giving Pettersen more historical data on which pairings from her 10 returning players have worked well versus not in the past.

Maybe most simply, but not least importantly, the Europeans have won more often over the last 13 years. They are 4-2-1 since 2011.

Who will win?

Last year, I predicted a 15-13 European victory. It felt like the Euros having home course advantage and taking on five American rookies would prove to be too much for the U.S. This time, I’m flipping the score, going with a 15-13 win for the Americans, thanks to an improved roster compared to the Euros.

Both team’s newcomers are talent additions from last season. Consistent Albane Valenzuela and Olympic silver medalist Esther Henseleit join the Euro ranks, but Coughlin for the U.S. is far and away the best Solheim rookie. Despite the Americans losing 4½ points from last year with Danielle Kang and Cheyenne Knight not returning, Coughlin’s emergence as a steady-handed force is the tipping point factor to give the advantage to the Americans.

This Solheim Cup should remain close, whatever the outcome. Four of the previous six have been decided by two points or less. By contrast, the Ryder Cup has had a decade filled with blowouts, with the last five matchups since 2014 won by at least five points. In any scenario, there should be plenty of suspense come Sunday.

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com