My condolences to those who didn’t skip Keith Mitchell last week. He held your optimism until the very end. In many ways, there’s a lesson inside that bitter disappointment: Favorites seldom win in regular season PGA Tour events. Sure, the signature level tournaments were all sealed up by Scottie Scheffler, but when the rank and file compete, we see a much broader spectrum of results. Prior to Mississippi, Mitchell’s previous week playing with the lowest odds was the Barracuda Championship in July. Keith started the week there at 16-1 and missed the cut.

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Remember the beginning of the betting year? Nine straight winners with odds longer than 80-1 won. Nine straight! Kevin Yu entered the Sanderson Farms in the triple digits on the betting board. Now we have a brand-new event to handicap, as we explore the 2024 Black Desert Championship odds. Black Desert is a resort venue with 50 acres of fairway set on the lava fields of southwest Utah. The course looks stunning, and I believe the players will give us endless entertainment in front of this amazing backdrop.

More from Golf Digest The road less traveled The improbable story of the PGA Tour and LPGA landing in the lava fields of Utah

I will begin the betting week again with a similar sentiment to the Sanderson. Golf Digest experts Christopher Powers, Steve Hennessey and I are all staying away from the top of the board (below). Watch the attached video, and you’ll see we all would rather gain some value than live with the uncertainty of an ill-timed three putt at very short odds. This Utah birdiefest will be won by a powerful player who can capitalize on a scorching hot putter. The randomness of predicting the winner should lead you into the middle of the board as the best in the field just aren’t that much better than their competition.

Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we’re fading for the 2024 Black Desert Championship:

Sitting at 35-1 to start the week is Michael Thorbjornsen. PGA Tour University’s top-ranked player of 2024, Thorbjornsen has his tour card for the remainder of 2024 and all of 2025. The Stanford star has incredible ball speed and plenty of experience for 23 years old. The New England native has played in 17 PGA Tour events. Black Desert’s Championship layout sits at 3,000 feet above sea level. Michael’s length will be a huge advantage in the Utah hills and give him a wedge into most greens.

Complement his power with a very hot putter this fall, and my outright betting card starts with Thorbjornsen. The elite players leaving college are so well prepared for the PGA Tour. Thorbjornsen’s skill set is well refined and ready to throw down a set of very low scores in this event. Join me and tail Thorbjornsen right to the betting window.

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.

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