Ultimate Melbourne Cup form guide: Expert verdict on every runner and predicted top four
- by Admin
- November 2, 2024
It’s here again, not just Australia’s greatest race but our greatest and most enduring cultural institution – the Melbourne Cup!
As always, at 3.00pm on the first Tuesday of November the nation will stop what it’s doing and watch the huge field contest the 3200m (or two miles in the old) staying test, which has not only grown in its international era into the world’s best handicap, but one of the major races on the planet.
The story of the Cup is well known – first run in 1861 when won by the mighty Archer, and a grand stage for some of all-time greats such as Phar Lap (1930), Carbine (1890), Rising Fast (1954) and Makybe Diva, the only horse to win three, from 2003-05.
Its history is wrapped up with the folklore of the country, its handicap conditions not just making an intriguing punting puzzle but summing up the nation’s egalitarian spirit.
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In keeping with modern times, when tight new veterinary checks help ensure horse safety and have the effect of keeping a lot of internationals away, the 24-horse field for the $8 million race is dominated by locally-trained horses, with only five prepared abroad (as in Europe and Japan, not New Zealand).
But also in keeping with the fact the Europeans breed better stayers than speed-obsessed Australia, only four runners are Aussie-bred: decent place chance The Map, rhyming roughies Knight’s Choice and Manzoice, and highly-rated mare Zardozi, who was conceived in England of English parents but born here and that’ll do.
Four were bred in New Zealand, one is Japanese, and the rest are from Europe – most of them imported by Australian trainers a while ago, the rest flown in for the grand Cup escapade.
There’s still a good bit of intrigue around some European form less familiar to those who’ve been following the lead-ups in Australia. This includes the pair trained by wily Willie Mullins, an Irishman obsessed with winning the race: Vauban dudded as favourite last year but is back for another crack, and may start favourite again. And Absurde upstage him last year and is here for another go, three starts after winning a 3400m hurdle race in England!
Fine weather is forecast, so you shouldn’t need to consult wet track form, but then again, it is Melbourne. Also don’t be too put off by the comparatively low prizemoney of the English and Irish visitors. Prizemoney is pretty poor there.
Let’s dive right in.
Flemington, Tuesday, November 5
Race 7, 3.00pm
1. VAUBAN
55.5kg (11)
$7/$2.50
7yo gelding
$1,425,993
T: Willie Mullins; J: William Buick
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 3319m, Lonsdale Cup (Gr 2) York, UK, August 24. 1st 2816m, Royal Ascot benchmark 105, June 2023.
Tough Irish-trained stayer who has plenty of runs on the board at home and in England, with eight wins in 20 starts. Ran fourth over 4023m in the Royal Ascot Gold Cup (Gr 1) in June, and won the Lonsdale two starts ago, so you know he can run the trip on his day. Last run was a decent 2.3 length second in the Irish St Leger (Gr 1) over 2816m, so is in decent form. Trained by a master in Willie Mullins and has a top international jockey in England’s William Buick. Proven in all going, and is so consistent he’d only finished worse than fourth once in his career. However, that was in last year’s Melbourne Cup, when he was sent out favourite, had every chance in the run, but weakened badly to run 14th. Still, Ireland’s Twilight Payment ran 11th in his first Cup of 2019 and won it a year later, so the experience probably helps. And perhaps Vauban didn’t like the heat last year, and it’s said Mullins has changed things around with his prep this year. Decent middle barrier, but you’re still taking a leap of faith to think he’ll do it any better in this big field this year, with 0.5kg more weight too. Each way.
2. BUCKAROO
54.5kg (21)
$5/$2
6yo gelding
$2,074,648
T: Chris Waller; J: Joao Moreira
Track: 2: 0-1-0
Best long-distance form: 2nd, 2400m, Caulfield Cup (Gr 1) Oct 2024; 5th, 2400m, Rosehill Tancred Stakes (Gr 1) March 2024.
Classy animal who’s beautifully bred. He’s from Britain, but his sire was Australian stallion Fastnet Rock (who used to shuttle between hemispheres to service mares). In the hands of great trainer-jockey combo, with Brazilian master Moreira having been runner-up twice in this race, on Soulcombe last year – for the same trainer and owners – and Heartbreak City in 2016. The horse has won five of 22, works on wet and dry, and has really hit his straps in this his third Australian preparation after coming from Europe, and looks to have settled right in. Has two wins – including the Gr 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield – followed by two fighting seconds in his past four starts. Two starts back, finished 0.2 lengths behind Via Sistina in Flemington’s Turnbull Stakes (Gr 1, 2000m) and she’s since destroyed the Cox Plate by eight lengths in record time. Then he ran a 1.25 length second in the Caulfield Cup, in his best run yet at 2400m. Has same weight in this. He’s likely to start Cup favourite and his class will take him a long way. But the big doubt is distance, since he’s never been beyond 2400m, and there’s no more taxing 800m than the last half mile of this race, and he’s drawn badly out wide. Still, class will take him a long way, and you wouldn’t put anything past Waller, especially at the moment. Each way.
3. CIRCLE OF FIRE
54.5kg (24)
$26/$7.25
5yo stallion
$1,713,187
T: Ciaron Maher; J: Mark Zahra
Track: 3: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 3200m, Sydney Cup (Gr 1) April 2024. 4th, 2816m, Royal Ascot, Queen’s Vase (Gr 2) June 2023.
Interesting runner bought from England last year by master trainer and canny importer Ciaron Maher on the back of that Royal Ascot run, where he was close up behind some good young stayers, including the second-placed Saint George, who’s joined Maher now and is in this field too. Looked like a superstar in winning the Sydney Cup after travelling wide, and by more than two lengths, in April, after winning over 2600m, also at Randwick, a week earlier on a heavy 9. However, hasn’t really landed a follow-up punch in this, his second Australian preparation. Last start was disappointing when 10th, beaten 14 lengths, in the Caulfield Cup. Plus Saint George hasn’t done a lot to validate that Royal Ascot form. Has won on heavy and good, but not soft. At least does have the outstanding Mark Zahra aboard, who’s shooting for three of these Cups in a row. Maher also knows what he’s doing and might have seen the Caulfield Cup as a good stroll to keep the horse ticking over for this. However, he has a poor gate and he needs to lift.
4. WARP SPEED
54.5kg (3)
$28/$9
6yo stallion
$1,515,917
T: Noboru Takagi; J: Akira Sugawara
Track: 0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 3000m, Kyoto handicap, Oct 2023; 5th, 3200m, Kyoto Tenno Sho (Gr 1) April, 2024.
Japanese stayer and they make them tough. Has some impressive form over marathon trips back home, including a fourth over 3600m and a third over 3400m in his past four starts. His last start before coming here was that fifth in the Tenno Sho, which is always a classy affair. However, he looked very ordinary in the Caulfield Cup, when 13th, 16 lengths behind the winner. Sometimes the really long-distance horses bowl along in that race and appreciate the extra trip here, but he’d have to improve a lot off that run. Also, in case it rains, he’s 3: 0-0-0 on wet tracks. Drawn well, but no thanks.
5. KOVALICA
53.5kg (17)
$17/$5
5yo gelding
$3,155,000
T:Chris Waller; J: Damian Lane
Track: 0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2400m, Eagle Farm Queensland Derby (Gr 1) May 2023.
Is actually the highest earner in the field, but a lot of that came early. Put the Cup in his sights by becoming a Derby winner in Brisbane in June last year, but that’s still his latest win, 15 starts later. Has mostly been fancied at around 1600m since then, but finds himself in this Cup field at his first go beyond 2400m. Last start sixth in the Cox Plate, making a little ground from ninth at the 400m, but still ending 11.8 lengths off the winner. Has form in all conditions at least but drawn badly and prefer others.
6. SHARP ’N’ SMART
53.5kg (15)
$71/$18.50
5yo gelding
$2,968,806
T: Graeme & Deborah Rogerson; J: Michael Dee
Track: 2: 0-1-0
Best long-distance form: 3rd, 2500m, Moonee Valley Cup (Gr 2) Oct 2024; 2nd, 2500m, Flemington VRC Derby (Gr 1) Nov 2023. 1st, 2400m, New Zealand Derby (Gr 1) March 2023.
Classy NZ-bred five-year-old but perhaps not living up to the promise he showed at three. Followed a 13th in the Turnbull Stakes with a much improved third in the Moonee Valley Cup. Slightly strange run that day, when needed a few cracks with the whip while dawdling towards the home turn, came with a run and looked like running second before fading again late. Goes in wet or dry, has a strong big race rider aboard and trainer Graeme Rogerson won this race in 2007 with Efficient. Tricky gate, and a big rise in class from Moonee Valley. Not for us.
7. JUST FINE
53kg (13)
$51/$13.50
7yo gelding
$1,057,055
T: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott; J: Jye McNeil
Track: 1: 1-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2520m, Flemington, The Bart Cummings (Gr 3) Oct 2024; 1st, 2400m, Randwick, The Metropolitan (Gr 1), Sept 2023.
Was looking half a chance for this when he led all the way in The Bart Cummings to earn his ticket to this, backing up strong form of last spring when he scored a winning hat-trick at Randwick fresh off the boat from England. However, his last run in the Moonee Valley Cup was atrocious, leading again but fading out alarmingly to come last of 10. Waterhouse was puzzled, offering that he maybe didn’t like the track and running under lights, and that Flemington would suit him better. Still, it’d be a massive leap of faith to ignore that last run, and he did just hang on in The Bart Cummings and this is 700m further. Looking elsewhere.
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8. LAND LEGEND
53kg (18)
$15/$4.50
5yo gelding
$1,116,807
T: Chris Waller; J: Zac Purton
Track: 0
Best long-distance form: 3rd, 2400m, Caulfield Cup (Gr 1) Oct 2024; 1st, 2400m, Randwick, The Metropolitan (Gr 1) October 2024; 1st, 2600m, Randwick, St Leger, Oct 2023.
Tough French-bred stayer who turned in a fair run when third in the Caulfield Cup, beaten 6.25 lengths. Was asked to sustain a run from wide out for a long way that day though, so was entitled to get tired late. That still doesn’t augur particularly well for 3200m around Flemington where the pressure is likely to be on because of the big field. But he does look a progressive type, with three wins and three placings from just 13 starts. Proven in soft and good tracks. Distance looks a risk and drawn badly, but he’s a place hope.
9. ABSURDE
52.5kg (7)
$11/$3.50
7yo gelding
$1,052,151
T: Willie Mullins; J: Kerrin McEvoy
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 4023m, Killarney hurdle, Ireland, May 2023; 1st, 3419m, Chester hurdle, UK, March 2024; 1st, 2916, Chester Stakes (Listed) UK, August 2024; 1st 2816m, York UK, Ebor Handicap, August 2023.
Another by Fastnet Rock who kicked off in France and has an awesome record of six wins and eight placings from 21 starts. Is as tough as they come, shown by his wins in hurdle and flat marathons, has a top trainer and a superb experienced jockey who’s won three of these things. Ran a good race here last year when seventh. Looked a possible winner early in the straight but tired late on after having a fairly tough run, forced to cover extra distance – and this after getting a good bit worked up before the race amid the Cup day atmosphere. Tuned up with an imposing win in the Chester Stakes last start, when burst through a gap late on looking extremely fresh despite the 2916m distance. Proven on good and heavy, though on soft he’s only 5: 1-0-0. Great barrier, classy stayer who’ll run all day and will be in this for a long way. If he doesn’t get too worked up before the race, he’s a top chance.
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10. ATHABASCAN
52kg (2)
$51/$13.50
6yo gelding
$1,264,252
T: John O’Shea and Tom Charlton; J: Zac Lloyd
Track: 2: 0-1-0
Best long-distance form: 2nd, 3200m, Randwick Sydney Cup (Gr 1) April 2024; 1st, 2600m, Randwick St Leger, Oct 2024; 1st, 2400m Randwick (twice): Tatts Cup (Listed) Colin Stephen Handicap (Gr 3) both in Sept 2023; 2nd, 2500m, Flemington, Archer Stakes (Gr 3) Nov 2023.
French import who’s shown some decent staying form out here, including last spring when he nearly earned a Cup start when second in the Archer Stakes. That’s not the strongest form race for the Cup though. Did show his class with a two-length second in the Sydney Cup when beaten by a good one that day in Circle Of Fire. Had been ordinary in three Sydney runs third prep before last start win in the 2600m St Leger, when he was tough to the line. Didn’t beat much that day, however, and this is far tougher. Some rain would help, as he loves soft going. Good gate but rough place only.
11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE
51.5kg (6)
$201/$51
5yo gelding
T: John Symons and Shiela Laxon; J: Robbie Dolan
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2000m, Doomben handicap, December 2023; 3rd, 2400m, Eagle Farm (Gr 3) June 2024.
One for the Aussies but unlikely to do us that proud. Ran 14th in the Caulfield Cup, beaten more than 16 lengths, after coming 16th in the Turnbull (2000m) and ninth in the Underwood (1800m). Is co-trained by Sheila Laxon, who won the Cups double with Ethereal in 2001, but looks well under the odds at $201. Not for us.
12. OKITA SOUSHI
51kg (10)
$21/$6
7yo stallion
$699,538
T: Ciaron Maher; J: Jamie Kah
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2500m, Moonee Valley Cup (Gr 2) October 2024; 1st, Dundalk synthetic, Ireland, 3219m, February 2023; 1st, 2414m, Royal Ascot benchmark 105, June 2023.
Talented Irish import, by the great sire Galileo, who’s been warming up nicely for this. Arrived as an Irish raider last spring and made ground without threatening in the Caulfield and Melbourne cups. Worked home well in the latter, having been 21st at the 800m mark, to finish 11th, beaten 8.4 lengths, in the first half of a field split into two clumps by the end. Has since been transferred to Ciaron Maher and has warmed up nicely for this, with a second in Caulfield’s Herbert Power (Gr 2, 2400m) followed by a strong victory in the Moonee Valley Cup (Gr 2, 2500m). Perhaps didn’t beat much that day but drops 4kg for this, and has super jockey Jamie Kah going on and good middle gate. Proven in soft and good. Each-way chance at juicy odds.
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
51kg (12)
$8/$2.75
7yo gelding
$741,666
T: Brian Ellison; J: Craig Williams
Track: 0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 3319m Newcastle synthetic UK, Northumberland Plate, June 2024; 1st, 2400m, Geelong Cup (Gr 3) Oct 2024;
American-bred English raider in great form. Won the Northumberland Plate over 3319m at Newcastle four runs back, by 2.5 lengths. While that was on a synthetic track, the race is a reasonably prestigious staying test. Then ran a fair seventh in the key Melbourne Cup pointer of the Ebor Handicap (2816m) at York, making ground from the rear, but announced his Cup credentials with an ultra impressive win in the Geelong Cup last start. Settled worse than midfield, sat four wide without cover from the 600m, but scooted to the lead in the straight like he’d just joined in and won by 2.25 lengths, beating quality opposition with Interpretation second. That race has long been a reliable pointer to this one. It was his first win in eight starts on turf, not synthetic, tracks, but he seemed to relish it. Doesn’t have a lot of wet form, so rain might pose some questions. Did have a minor health scare with a cut heel late last week but was passed fit on Saturday. Drops 3kg from Geelong to 51kg here, Craig Williams got acquainted with him at Geelong. Good middle gate, and he looks like one of those tough British stayers who’ll take a power of beating under a tiny weight. Top chance.
14. ZARDOZI
51kg (4)
$21/$6
4yo mare
$1,793,300
T: James Cummings; J: Andrea Atzeni
Track: 4: 2-1-0.
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2500m, Flemington VRC Oaks (Gr 1) Nov 2023; 2nd, 2400m, Randwick (twice) ATC Oaks (Gr 1) April 2024; The Metropolitan (Gr 1) Oct 2024.
Well performed Australian staying mare (of English parents) from the powerful combination of the Godolphin racing empire, their trainer James Cummings, and Hong Kong-based Italian jockey Andrea Atzeni, who flew out to win the Sydney Cup over this distance in April on Circle Of Fire. The mare won the VRC Oaks for 3yos last spring, which automatically sets minds towards this race a year later. Goes in wet and dry, and she looked in good nick when a nose second – and protested unsuccessfully – in The Metropolitan two starts back. Then turned in a fourth in the Caulfield Cup. While she beat 14 home, she was 8.5 lengths off the winner and just plodding towards the line. Would like to have seen more that day, but she did turn in an eye-catching run when flying home from the back for fifth in Saturday’s Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) at Flemington. Does have to back up quickly from that run, however, but drawn well. Place only.
15. SEA KING
50.5kg (1)
$9/$3.00
6yo gelding
$450,266
T: Harry Eustace; J: Holly Doyle
Track: 0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2400m, Bendigo Cup, Oct 2024; 1st 2639m, Ayr, Scotland, benchmark 95, July 2024; 1st, 2414m, Ripon, England, benchmark 100, April 2024.
Lightly-raced six-year-old who screamed his Cup credentials on his Australian debut last Wednesday by strolling home with the Bendigo Cup. Settled midfield, took off at the 900m mark and pulled his way to the front, and bolted away to win by 3.75 lengths. That gave him three wins in his past six starts, including over his longest trip – 2639m – at Ayr. Start before Bendigo he ran a fair sixth in the Ebor Handicap at York in England, a traditional lead-up to this. Has won six from 19, which is a good strike rate for a stayer. Goes on soft or good, drops 4kg from Bendigo Cup, has a fine jockey in Holly Doyle who’s flown out to ride him. Drawn well in the inside gate, and looks one of these tough English stayers who’ll be fresh at the end. Strong chance.
16. VALIANT KING
50.5kg (22)
$51/$13.50
5yo gelding
$322,472
T: Chris Waller; J: Craig Newitt
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2011m, Navan, Ireland, maiden, May 2023. 2nd, 2414m, Royal Ascot UK, benchmark 105, June 2023.
Has only had 11 starts for one win in an Irish maiden, is the second lowest earner in the field and more than a third of his earnings came last start in the Caulfield Cup. That sounds better than it is, because he came ninth, beaten 13 lengths, but still got $120k. Made a little ground that day but was beaten a long way. Is proven in all going but can’t see him troubling these.
17. FANCY MAN
50kg (19)
$101/$26
7yo gelding
$526,574
T: Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald; J: Ron Stewart
Track: 0
Best long-distance form: 6th, 2400m, Caulfield Cup (Gr 1) Oct 2024; 1st, 2400m, Eagle Farm (Listed) Oct 2023; 1st, 2414m, Lingfield synthetic, Sept 2021.
This is a decent punt for longshot backers based on his Caulfield Cup run. Didn’t shoot the lights out but was quietly making ground in the straight, keeping on coming when others were taking the gas, and giving the impression he’d been trained for, and would appreciate, much further. That was third run this campaign, following two sound runs when fifth over 2000m at Caulfield and third in the Herbert Power (2400m), when the second horse home was subsequent Moonee Valley Cup winner Okita Soushi. A little rain wouldn’t hurt as he’s proven on soft and good. There are many classier horses in this field, and the wide barrier is tough, but with his tiny weight this bloke looks like one of the best longshots with good place odds.
18. INTERPRETATION
50kg (14)
$18/$5.25
7yo gelding
$856,850
T: Ciaron Maher; J: Teo Nugent
Track: 11: 0-0-1
Best long-distance form: 6th, 3200m, Flemington, Melbourne Cup (Gr 1) Nov 2023. 1st, 2816m, Leopardstown, Ireland (Listed) Aug 2021. 1st, 2400m, Bendigo Cup (Gr 3) Nov, 2023.
Impressive former Irish stayer who’s shown a lot of promise since being spotted and bought by master trainer Ciaron Maher, a man with a great eye for a European stayer. Turned in a great run in last year’s Cup in powering home from 19th at the 400m to be sixth. Was beaten 5.35 lengths but had to settle way back in the run from a wide gate. And that was only six days after winning the Bendigo Cup. Had a long break after that but has come back in good touch, working his way nicely up to this with six runs since June. Last start second in the Geelong Cup was full of merit, surging home out wide after travelling at the back, and showing he was after more ground. Had a minor injury scare when vets were worried about his gait late last week, but was passed fit. OK gate, Drops 3kg from Geelong and rates as a strong chance.
19. MANZOICE
50kg (8)
$101/$25
5yo gelding
$1,632,050
T: Chris Waller; J: Tyler Schiller
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2500m, Flemington, VRC Derby (G1, 2500m), Nov 2022.
Winning the Derby tends to earmark a horse for the Cup, and he’s got here two years later. Sadly, the Derby remains his last win, his second among 21 starts, and his recent form justifies his triple figure odds in this. Last start seventh in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) when up on the pace but fading in the straight. Decent gate, but not for ours.
20. MOSTLY CLOUDY
50kg (16)
$101/$25
6yo gelding
$516,922
T: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young; J: Karis Teetan
Track: 9: 1-2-2
Best long-distance form: 2nd, 3200m, Eagle Farm, Brisbane Cup (Gr 2), June 2024; 2nd 2800m, Flemington, The Andrew Ramsden (Listed), May 2024; 1st, 3318m, Doncaster UK, benchmark 85, July 2022; 1st, 3209m, Ascot UK, benchmark 90, July 2022.
Started in England where he won five in a row ending in that Ascot win before being imported. Has threatened to do more here than just the one win in 14, but at least that was at Flemington, over 2500m last September. He since performed well in a couple of two-milers with a sixth in the Sydney Cup (Gr 1) and second in the Brisbane Cup. However, hasn’t raced since October 5 with a poor 12th of 13 in The Bart Cummings (2520m). Goes on soft or dry, so the soft 6 that day was no excuse. Hard to have on that run.
21. POSITIVITY
50kg (20)
$101/$25
4yo mare
$477,095
T: Andrew Forsman; J: Winona Costin
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2500m, Adelaide SA Classic (G3), May 2024; 1st, 2000m, Caulfield Naturalism Stakes (G3), Sept 2024.
Kiwi mare who was shaping up as seomthing when she was three – running second in the NZ Oaks (G1, 2400m). Then won two of her next three in those Adelaide and Caulfield runs, and looked on the rise but her two runs since have been moderate. Plugged away like a two-miler when seventh in The Bart Cummings (G3 2520m) here on October 5, but then was poor in the Moonee Valley Cup (G2 2500m) last start when sat up on the pace and weakened out to run eighth of 10. Goes on soft and good but needs to lift on that run and drawn badly. Prefer others.
22. SAINT GEORGE
50kg (9)
$51/$12
5yo stallion
$225,972
T: Ciaron Maher; J: TBC
Track: 1: 0-0-0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2916m, Doncaster UK, 3yo handicap, June 2023; 2nd 2816m, Royal Ascot UK, Queen’s Vase (G2), June 2023; 5th, 2500m, Moonee Valley Cup (G2), Oct 2024.
Another British stayer imported by Ciaron Maher but hasn’t hit his straps like some of his others. Go on his 2len long distance win at Doncaster. Came home fairly when fifth in the Moonee Valley cup, and drops 5kg to this. Lowest earner in the field, and would have to improve a lot but will have been trained right for this. Could sneak a place but is a very rough place hope only.
23. THE MAP
50kg (23)
$51/$13.50
6yo mare
$865,175
T: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray (Murray Bridge); J: Rachel King
Track: 3: 2-0-0
Best long-distance form: 2nd, 3200m Adelaide Cup (Group 2) March 2024; 1st, 2800m (twice) Flemington Andrew Ramsden (Listed) May 2024, and benchmark 96 handicap, November 2023.
Very consistent mare with nine wins from 32 starts, and one for the locals as she’s Australian through-and-through. She loves to stay, loves Flemington, and is thrown into this with a tiny weight. Won the Ramsden to qualify for this, and while that’s a lower class affair she carried 56.5kg that day and she’ll appreciate 6.5kg less in this. Won here on Cup day last year so the occasion won’t get to her. Beaten a nose into second over this trip in the Adelaide Cup, carrying 53kg, so you know she’ll get the distance. Should be at peak fitness following four runs this campaign, and the latest one was very good when sixth in the Geelong Cup (2400m) after being unlucky in the straight when blocked behind other runners. Has won on soft and good going, her South Australian trainers have done an excellent job with her throughout her career, and has an accomplished lightweight jockey aboard. Bad gate, however. Rough place chance.
24. TRUST IN YOU
50kg (5)
$101/$25
6yo gelding
$340,729
T: Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley; J: Mark Du Plessis
Track: 0
Best long-distance form: 1st, 2400m (twice) Pukekohe, New Zealand: handicap and QEII Cup (G3), Dec 2023 and Jan 2024; 6th, 3200m, Auckland Cup (G2), March 2024; 4th, 2400m, Randwick, The Metropolitan (G1), Oct 2024.
Kiwi gelding who’s been plodding along just behind them in some distance races of late, and so may have been lucky to sneak into this field. Still, wasn’t beaten far (3.6 lens) in his first go at 3200m in the Auckland Cup, and made good ground for his fourth in The Metropolitan. At his one start since, however, he was a modest fourth in Randwick’s St Leger (2600m) when he faded out after hitting the lead early in the straight. This is much tougher, but does drop 7.5kg and has drawn well. Very rough place hope only.
TIPS: 1. Onesmoothoperator; 2. Sea King; 3. Absurde; 4. Interpretation.
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