Melbourne Cup cheat sheet: Why every horse can — and can’t — win the great race
- by Admin
- November 4, 2024
On Tuesday, 24 horses will line up for battle over 3200 metres around Flemington for the Melbourne Cup.
Here’s why every horse can – and can’t – win the big race.
Flemington, Tuesday, November 5
Race 7, 3.00pm
1. VAUBAN Barrier (10), Approx Odds: $6/$2.70
FOR: Master Irish trainer in Willie Mullins who’s been here several times and is hellbent on winning the Cup. Top international jockey from England in William Buick. The horse is a tough stayer who’s won up to 3319m and ran fourth over 4023m, so you know he should get this 3200m trip. Good middle gate from which to take up a decent position in the run. The No.1 saddlecloth has been solid too, with 10 wins in race history, ranking third-best. This horse has only finished worse than fourth once in his 20-start career. Was here last year so that experience will help. Has had two fairly recent runs whereas last year he hadn’t raced since August. So he’s perhaps a bit fitter for his task. He’s also had his coat clipped, whereas last year he was more woolly and got warm.
AGAINST: That run here last year. He was sent out as favourite, had a beautiful run in transit, then gave nothing in the straight to weaken out to 14th. You’d have to try to forgive that run and hope he improves this time. But this day can get to a horse, especially the Europeans not used to the noise and hoopla, or running in big fields. You’ll have to hope his trainer learnt lessons from last year. Also, the horse will likely start favourite – again – and only one of those has won since 2006, and that was back in 2013 with Fiorente.
Watch every ball of Australia v Pakistan ODI Series LIVE & exclusive to FOX CRICKET, available on Kayo. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1. Limited time offer.
2. BUCKAROO (20) $7/$2.80
FOR: Is with Australia’s most successful modern trainer in Chris Waller, and has a super international jockey in Brazil’s Joao Moreira aboard, who’s very keen to win this having run second twice. Is a classy horse whose latest form is first, first, second, second. Two starts back ran second to Via Sistina who then won the Cox Plate by eight lengths. And last start flew home for second in the Caulfield Cup for possibly the best run in the race (since the winning jockey’s ride probably won it). Is in a sweet demographic as a 6yo gelding. Since 1992 – the year before the race became international – 6yos have provided 41% of the first three finishers (the most of any age), and geldings 50%, the most of any gender. Is possibly the classiest horse in the field and class takes you a long way.
AGAINST: Two bigs things: distance doubt and wide barrier. He’s never been beyond that 2400m of the Caulfield Cup, and the extra 800m at the end of this gut-buster is a loooooong way. And barrier 20 is a killer. Moreira is known as “the magic man”, but he’ll need all his wizardry to get a good spot from there. He did run a close second on Heartbreak City from gate 23 in 2016, but that horse had won up to 3319m, so there wasn’t that distance doubt.
3. CIRCLE OF FIRE (23) $34/$10
FOR: Tough, English-bred stayer. With top trainer and importer in Ciaron Maher, who won this with another European import two years ago in Gold Trip. Has Mark Zahra in the saddle, who’s won the past two of these. Proven at the distance with an easy win after doing it tough in the Sydney Cup in April. Fitter for three runs this preparation. Bred by the Queen! AGAINST: Shocking barrier. Zahra will most likely have to go back a fair way, and while the horse could sit wide and win the Sydney Cup, this is a tougher proposition. Could Zahra win three in a row? That would be stunning. Most of all though, the horse’s form hasn’t been great. Last start was disappointing 10th, beaten 14 lengths, in the Caulfield Cup. Doesn’t look the same horse as last autumn.
MORE MELBOURNE CUP NEWS
FORM GUIDE: Expert verdict on every runner and predicted top 4
JIM CASSIDY’S FORM GUIDE: Legend’s verdict on every runner
EXPERT TIPS: Who those in the know are backing
BIGGEST BETS: Where the money is going on Cup day
4. WARP SPEED (2) $28/$9
FOR: He’s a stayer from Japan and they make them tough there. Is proven at the distance having run fourth over 3600m and third over 3400m in his past four starts. Great inside barrier, and if you’re superstitious he’s got the best saddlecloth number there is in this race, with No.4 having scored 13 times, two more than second-best. Right age at 6yo, and he’s a stallion, which is the second-best demographic in this race, accounting for 36% of the first three in Melbourne Cups since 1992.
AGAINST: The big obvious is his ordinary run in his only Australian start – a 13th in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 16 lengths off the winner, Sure, he’ll appreciate this longer trip, but you’d like to have seen more. A bit of a mystery bag who would have to lift his game.
5. KOVALICA (16) $23/$6
FOR: Master trainer in Chris Waller and fine big-race jockey in Damian Lane. Announced his Cup credentials in winning the Queensland Derby (2400m) last year. No.5 has a fair record in this with eight wins, ranking sixth. Highest prizemoney earner in the field.
AGAINST: While punters continually back him, he hasn’t won since that Queensland Derby, 15 runs ago, despite a few placings. You get the feeling he’s scared of the winning post. Last start pretty plain sixth in the Cox Plate (2040m), going past a couple of tiring runners in the straight. Worse still, has a bad barrier out wide, and he’s untried at the trip having not gone past that 2400m of the Queensland Derby, way back in May 2023.
6. SHARP ’N’ SMART (14) $51/13
FOR: If you’re fond of Kiwis, or you are one, or both … He’s from there, as are his trainers and his good big race jockey Mickey Dee. Co-trainer Graeme Rogerson has won this before with Efficient in 2007. The horse is an NZ Derby winner over 2400m, ran second at this track in the VRC Derby (2500m) a year ago, and was third last start in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). No.6 goes well in this with nine wins (equal fourth). Not too bad a gate in 14. It’s hatched a fair few winners, including Makybe Diva in 2005.
AGAINST: A bit like Kovalica, hasn’t won since that NZ Derby, in March last year. Was amongst the placings last start but did fade out a touch late, and this is a taxing 700m further.
MELBOURNE CUP TALKING POINTS: The big storylines to follow
7. JUST FINE (12) $51/$13
FOR: Top stable in Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Waterhouse won this with Fiorente in 2013. This horse will likely go to the front and he has top jock Jye McNeil aboard, who led all the way in a superbly judged ride to win on Twilight Payment in 2020. Horse is one-from-one at this track, having led throughout to win The Bart Cummings (2520m) two starts back. Barrier 12 isn’t bad. Gold Trip won from there two years ago.
AGAINST: Turned in a shocker last start in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). He led like he did in The Bart Cummings, but then went like a pricked balloon in the straight and ran last of 10. Hence he’s a long shot here. This race is rarely won from go to whoa, and if he faded out like that over a race that’s 700m shorter than this one …
8. LAND LEGEND (17) $12/$4.20
FOR: Top trainer in Chris Waller and great jockey in Hong Kong-based Aussie Zac Purton. Has come in for strong support in the betting in the past two days. Looked like a good Cup stayer when he won The Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick two starts back. Then turned in a solid run when third in the Caulfield Cup over the same trip, after working hard in the run. No.8 has a solid record with nine wins in this (equal fourth-most).
AGAINST: Did fade a touch late on in the Caulfield Cup, and while he was probably entitled to after working hard in the run, you’d like to have seen a bit more at the end, and he was beaten by 6.25 lengths. Worst part though is his wide barrier. Will be tricky for Purton to find a good spot from there, and while this horse has won at 2600m, he hasn’t been tested beyond that. He’ll either have to cover extra ground or come from the rear with a big finish over 3200m to prove his doubters wrong. Plus gate 17 is tough.
9. ABSURDE (6) $9/$3.30
FOR: Canny Irish trainer in Willie Mullins and a top Australian jock in Kerrin McEvoy who’s won this race three times, so knows his way around. Great barrier from which to take up a good position. Conversely, he had to do it tough in this race last year but ran superbly despite that, hanging on to be just nutted out of sixth spot on the line. Will be better for that experience. Distance is no worries – he’s won a hurdle over 4023m in Ireland. And is in great form winning two of past three, the latest over 2916m at Chester, England, when he looked very good and won with 61kg. He’s got only 52.5kg in this, and that’s a massive drop. AGAINST: Not a huge amount, but stats/superstitions aren’t great. No.9 doesn’t figure among the best saddlecloth numbers. But this tough English stayer is the type would could well defy that history. If you’re scraping for knocks, he hasn’t had a run in this country yet on this visit, but that didn’t stop him running a big race last year.
MORE MELBOURNE CUP NEWS
FIND THE WINNER: All the key lead-up runs you need to see
ODDS: Latest market for the 2024 Melbourne Cup
LLOYD WILLIAMS: Cup king delivers ‘confident’ verdict
10. ATHABASCAN (2) $51/$12 — SCRATCHED
11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE (5) $101/$25
FOR: Co-trained by expat Kiwi Shiela Laxon, who won the Cups double in 2001 with Ethereal, so knows what it takes. Good inside barrier. Made some ground last start when fifth in the Bendigo Cup (2400m).
AGAINST: Everything else, including form. Ran 14th in the Caulfield Cup, and before that was last of 16 over 2000m. Was a hot 3yo but hasn’t trained on, and looks well under the odds at $101.
12. OKITA SOUSHI (9) $13/$4.40
FOR: Master trainer in Ciaron Maher. Top jockey in Jamie Kah, who’s in form after winning the VRC Derby on Saturday. And this horse’s dad was one of the world’s all-time great sires in Galileo. Form is terrific, with a last-start win in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) when finished well. Drops 4kg for this to a tiny 51kg. Proven at this trip, having won over it in Ireland last year. When he came out for last year’s Melbourne Cup, had to go way back from gate 20, but made good ground from 21st at the 800m mark, to finish 11th, beaten 8.4 lengths. Has a great middle barrier. And saddlecloth No.12 has a very strong record in this with 11 wins. AGAINST: Not a huge amount. Perhaps hasn’t really shone in top class races, but that hasn’t stopped plenty of Cup winners in the past. He’s a hard horse to knock.
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (11) $9/$3.40
FOR: English raider who looked stunning in winning the Geelong Cup last start, by 2.25 lengths. Finished off with a spring in his step, looking like he’d just joined in at the home turn. The Geelong Cup has proven a great trial for this race over the years, hatching winners and placegetters galore. He’s also proven at this longer trip, having won over 3319m in England in June. Canny English trainer in Brian Ellison, and leading Australian rider in Craig Williams, who won this in 2019 on Vow And Declare. Tiny weight with 51kg, and while inexperienced young jockeys are often found to make that weight, Williams is a highly successful veteran who can make it. Good middle barrier. In fact, barrier 11 is THE most successful since automatic starting stalls were introduced for the great race in 1958, with seven winners
AGAINST: Not a lot. One slight doubt is most of his form in England has been on synthetic tracks, which is lower class racing. That didn’t seem to bother him on the turf of Geelong. Barrier 12 looks OK, but it’s only hatched one winner of this since the modern starting gates were introduced in 1957. Another slight worry is he came in for veterinary attention only last Friday when he was found to have a cut on his heel. But that was minor and he was passed fit the next day.
14. ZARDOZI (3) $11/$3.90
FOR: The name says it all. Not Zardozi, but Cummings, James Cummings, this mare’s trainer and the grandson of the late great Bart Cummings, the master who won a phenomenal 12 Melbourne Cups. James used to work with him, so will have picked up a tips on preparing a horse for this race, and is an extremely good trainer in his own right. The mare turned in a nice trial for this when flashing home for fifth over 1600m at Flemington on Saturday. That was only half this distance of course, but Cummings will have thought she just needed that top-up run. Tiny weight, and has won twice at this track, including last year’s Group 1 VRC Oaks (2500m). In decent form with a second, fourth and fifth in past three starts. Superb jockey in Hong Kong based Italian Andrea Atzeni, who flew out to win the Sydney Cup over this trip last April for some Australian experience.
AGAINST: Ran fourth in the Caulfield Cup but could have finished that 2400m race a bit better, fading late and beaten 8.5 lengths. Is a 4yo mare, and they don’t shoot the lights out so much in this tough race. The last one to win was the great three-time winner Makybe Diva, with her first in 2003. Zardozi’s a fine mare, but she’s not Makybe Diva. In fact, not a lot of mares win this race, and only 13% of its first three since 1992 fitting that description. Only one mare has won it since Makybe’s third victory in 2005, and that was the also special Verry Eleegant in 2021. Also, hasn’t raced beyond 2500m, and until they’re proven at it, there’s always doubt about them running a strong 3200m, especially inexperienced 4yo mares.
15. SEA KING (1) $12/$4
FOR: Debuted in Australia with a brilliant win in last Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup (2400m), when he pulled his way towards the front 900m out, and bolted away from them by 3.75 length looking every bit the strong English stayer who’ll be suited in the Big Cup. Top trainer in Harry Eustace and leading jockey Hollie Doyle has flown out to ride. Has barrier one so should be able to save ground. Has won up to 2639m and while noone’s proven until they’ve done 3200m, if any horse looks like he can make it first go, it’s this one. Is also in the right bracket as a 6yo gelding.
AGAINST: Not a great deal, but not many Bendigo Cup winners go on to win this. In fact, the last time a horse won that double was 1869! There’s also that unproven-at-the-distance doubt, but again, he looks like one of these tough British stayers who’ll get it. From barrier one he could encounter a bit of traffic in the straight if he gets a long way back, but the gaps usually appear in a Melbourne Cup home straight.
16. VALIANT KING (21) $101/$22
FOR: Err, trained by Chris Waller and has a tiny weight, and has made it into the field, and there’s that old saying about not being able to win a race if you’re not in the field.
AGAINST: A whole lot, like his modest ninth in the Caulfield Cup last start, after two poor runs before that. If that’s not enough, he’s drawn gate 21, and hasn’t won beyond 2011m, and that was in a lowly maiden in deepest, darkest Ireland. He’s not 100-1 for nothing.
MORE MELBOURNE CUP NEWS
DUMMIES’ GUIDE: How to place a bet on the Melbourne Cup
ULTIMATE GUIDE: How much winner gets and the horses punters are backing
17. FANCY MAN (18) $101/$24
FOR: Turned in a very decent run in at big odds in the Caulfield Cup, when sixth. Didn’t tear the house down, but it was one of these quiet ground-making runs in that key lead-up which suggests he’ll love the extra 800m here. Is a tough and honest gelding who showed he can still do the business by winning over 2400m at Eagle Farm five starts back, his first win since 2022 in England. He’s unlikely to win, but also in his favour is that there’s always some bolter with a tiny weight bob up to run a place or first four in the Cup. With just 50kg, he could be it.
AGAINST: Bad alley, in 18, which will make it hard to get a good spot in the run. It’s has hatched only one winner of this race, although it was only three years ago in Verry Elleegant, so maybe the curse is now broken. Trainers Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald have called on 41-year-old jockey Ron Stewart to make the weight – not a noted big race rider.
18. INTERPRETATION (13) $19/$6
FOR: Brilliant trainer in Ciaron Maher and fine young lightweight jockey in Teo Nugent. Former European who’ll get the trip, having come a very good sixth last year, powering home from 19th at the 400m mark. He had to go back from barrier 17 that day but has a bit better 13 this time. Looks in good form with a last start fast-finishing second in that key trial for this, the Geelong Cup, after also making ground when sixth in The Bart Cummings (2520m). Drops 3kg from his Geelong handicap to just 50kg this time.
AGAINST: Not a huge amount. Record at the track isn’t great, at 11: 0-0-1. Doesn’t win often, with one success in his past 19 starts. Had a minor injury scare when vets were worried about his gait late last week, but was passed fit.
19. MANZOICE (7) $101/$25
FOR: Has the Chris Waller touch again and has already won a big race at Flemington, taking the VRC Derby (2500m) two years ago, one of his only two starts at the track. Good inside barrier, which has hatched a fair few winners including Viewed in 2008.
AGAINST: Is definitely from Waller’s B-Team. That 2022 Derby remains his last win, his second among 21 starts, and his recent form is poor. Last start seventh in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) when up on the pace but fading in the straight. Plus, barrier 7 has had only one winner of this race.
20. MOSTLY CLOUDY (15) $101/$24
FOR: Is in the field, etc. Has a tiny weight and a very good lightweight jockey in the Hong Kong based Karis Teetan. Is proven at the trip having run second in the Brisbane Cup (3200m) in June, and winning at 3318m in England before he moved here.
AGAINST: Everything else. Wide barrier, and hasn’t raced since October 5. That’s not unusual for Europeans, but he’s a local now, so you wonder if something went wrong. And that last start was dead ordinary too, a 12th of 13 in The Bart Cummings (2520m).
21. POSITIVITY (19) $101/$25
FOR: Hardy New Zealand mare who has sometimes looked like an out-and-out stayer who’ll run all day, such as when seventh in The Bart Cummings (G3 2520m) here on October 5. Has won to 2500m. Competent trainer in Andrew Forsman.
AGAINST: While her Bart Cummings run was encouraging, she reversed it last start when a fading eighth in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). Hard to have her on that, and then she’s gone and drawn gate 20. She’s also a 4yo mare (Read Zardozi), and she’s no Makybe Diva. Or Zardozi. Has a wide gate, but then again, it’s had a few winners including Cross Counter in 2018.
22. SAINT GEORGE (8) $26/$8
FOR: British import with master trainer and importer Ciaron Maher. Has won at 2916m in Britain and tuned up nicely with a 5th in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m), making ground at the end to suggest he’ll fancy the 3200m. He drops 5kg for this, which is significant, and has the tiny 50kg. Good inside-ish barrier.
AGAINST: Hasn’t quite fired like a lot of Maher imports, and he’s earned the least prizemoney of any horse in the field. Has had one run at Flemington for a fading ninth in The Bart Cummings (2520m) two runs back.
MORE MELBOURNE CUP NEWS
FINAL FIELD: Who made the cut in 2024?
WEATHER FORECAST: What is the weather forecast for the 2024 Melbourne Cup?
BARRIER DRAW: Race blown open after favourite shocker
23. THE MAP (22) $51/$14
FOR: Proven at the trip with 2nd in Adelaide Cup (3200m) in March and has won two from three at Flemington, both over 2800m, so you know she’ll get the distance. Carried 56.5kg in one of those Flemington wins and is down to just 50kg in this. Is a mare (one winner since 2005) but at least she’s a hardened six-year-old. Tuned up well with last start sixth in the Geelong Cup (2400m) after being unlucky in the straight when blocked behind other runners. Accomplished rider in Rachel King.
AGAINST: Rotten barrier. Will likely get a long way back and have to produce a big finish. Perhaps a bit of a class question. She’s an Australian-bred stayer, but we’re a bit inferior to those European-bred stayers. We do the sprinters; they do the stayers.
24. TRUST IN YOU (4) $101/$24
FOR: Has drawn a good gate, has a tiny weight and a strong lightweight rider in Mark Du Plessis. Ran 6th over this distance in the Auckland Cup last March, suggesting he’ll get the trip.
AGAINST: Recent form doesn’t scream out “Melbourne Cup winner”. Made OK ground for his fourth in The Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick two runs back, but was then a modest fourth in average company in Randwick’s St Leger (2600m) when he faded out after hitting the lead early in the straight.
TIPS: 1. Onesmoothoperator; 2. Sea King; 3. Absurde; 4. Interpretation.
Best longshot: Fancy man.
The Latest News
-
November 26, 2024Leishman’s major lure driving his Australian Open push
-
November 26, 2024Making the Australian Open great again
-
November 26, 2024‘I’ve got a lot better’: Meet the Aussie who’s followed Tiger’s path to the top ahead of his Aus Open homecoming
-
November 26, 2024Predicting the jobs of tomorrow – Mining Magazine Australia
-
November 26, 2024How to avoid the middle seat on a plane for free
