Former England captain Michael Vaughan said the events of late November in Perth and Christchurch have boosted his hopes that his home nation can reclaim the Ashes next year.
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While Australia suffered a demoralising 295 run loss in Perth to India, England overcame a tricky position to win in New Zealand, in the process unleashing a couple of potential stars.
It has boosted the enthusiasm of Vaughan, who said the Second Test in Adelaide beginning on Friday is critical for Australia as it seeks to reclaim the Border Gavaskar Trophy.
Australia is still to settle on a replacement for injured fast bowler Josh Hazlewood, who was arguably the nation’s best performing player in Perth, but Vaughan said that could prove a positive with a view to both the remainder of the series and also the Ashes next year.
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“I genuinely think England will have a great chance,” he said on Fox Cricket’s podcast The Follow On.
“I’ve looked at England teams that have come to Australia since 10’ or 11’ and every time they’ve come, I’ve gone … I’m not too sure. I just don’t think they can get anything. I just think Australia has been too good, too powerful.
“This Australian team is beatable. I genuinely think that they are beatable because of the lack of quality in the batting department. I think the bowlers are exceptional at the right times, but they’re all over 30 years of age in a five match series (and) you’re going to have to rotate somewhere.
“Maybe the missing out of Josh Hazlewood this week, maybe that’s not a bad thing for Australia to get Boland in, or whoever, and give someone else a go in that bowling department, because I think in a year’s time, I think they’re going to have to rotate.”
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England have not won a Test on Australian soil since they triumphed by an innings and 83 runs at the SCG to seal a 3-1 victory in 2010/11.
The three series since in Australia have been 5-0, 4-0 and 4-0 to the hosts, but Vaughan is confident that Ben Stokes’ side demonstrated the capacity with bat and ball in the first Test in New Zealand to suggest they are capable of overcoming their dire recent history down under.
Although, he warned that England are less proficient against spin bowling, as they showed in a 4-1 loss in India and a 2-1 loss in Pakistan earlier this year.
He identified Nathan Lyon, who missed the last three Tests of the most recent Ashes series in England due to injury, as a key.
Australia lost two of the Tests and drew another courtesy of the Manchester rain without Lyon in the team.
The prodigious off spinner also boasts a formidable record against England at home with 56 wickets at 27.38.
But Vaughan said England possesses a battery of fast bowlers capable of wreaking havoc in Australian conditions.
They have chased pace following the retirements of Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad, and Vaughan believes that Brendon McCullum has unearthed several seamers who can make the Australians hop around.
“This England side with Brydon Carse, Gus Atkinson, if Mark Wood can be fit, Jofra Archer, Ollie Stone, Josh Tongue, England will arrive down here with a bit of pace. They really will. They’ll have a bit of gas with them. And I think that’s what gives me a little bit of hope,” he said.
“Also, the batters play well against the Kookaburra ball (because) the ball doesn’t do a great deal here. So players that like to throw their hands at the ball, you get away with it a lot more in Australia and I just think it’ll be nicely suited to the way that England play their cricket.
“If the ball spins, Australia will win. But it doesn’t spin that often in Australia.”
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Vaughan acknowledged centurion Harry Brook was fortunate in New Zealand given the amount of lives he received from the hosts.
The 25-year-old was put down on five occasions by Black Caps fielders on his way to 171 in the first innings.
It was Brook’s seventh hundred in 22 matches, and it was his sixth away from home.
Vaughan was delighted that Brook and several other England players in the early phases of their careers, including debutant Jacob Bethell, performed with distinction against the Kookaburra.
Bethell was picked to bat at first drop, as Ollie Pope slid down the order to compensate for taking the gloves, despite never having made a first-class century and possessing an average of 26.60.
The 21-year-old rose to prominence in white ball cricket earlier this year however, and Vaughan believes the attacking instincts of England’s new generation will suit them in Australian conditions.
“I mean Harry Brook is a wonderful player. New Zealand are usually a safe pair of hands in the field, but they dropped lots of chances,” he said.
“England threw in Jacob Bethell in at number three and he gets a 50 in the second innings. Ollie Pope dashed nicely at number six, and then Brydon Carse gets 10 in the match. So they’re unearthing players that are doing well (who are) pretty much straight at the start of their Test careers, which tells you that the culture around the team is very, very good.
“England are a very, very dangerous team. They’re very hard to play against because they play high risk cricket, highly intense cricket, particularly with the bat in hand.
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“They pretty much work out that they don’t look to bat 120 to 130 overs. They get their runs in 70 to 80 overs and score quickly, so you have to find a way of getting them out quite quickly to nullify their score being big.
“But if I was Australia, I’d be focusing purely on this week. I think it’s a big week in Adelaide. They know that they’re going to have to respond. They’re going to have to play better cricket, and I think the call at the toss is going to be quite important, because batting first is going to be crucial for both teams.”
And the Fox Cricket expert is adamant that an army of English supporters will travel to Australia for the series convinced they are capable of wresting back the famous Urn.
“I reckon next year in Perth, I would think there’ll be 20,000 Brits for that first game and they’ll stay,” he said.
“They couldn’t come to the last Ashes because of COVID times, you know, and England always get a huge amount of people following (them). In particular this team, they’re a team that people like to watch. They’re very enjoyable to go down to the cricket and watch, because they play an expansive game. (And they are a) very likeable group of players. I think they’re very, very good with England supporters, the England players. They’re very close to them. They go and give a bit of their time.”