The form guide

Australia have won seven of their past 10 Tests, with the only draw in that period coming in Brisbane earlier this week. England have been victorious in six of their last 10 fixtures, with losses to Sri Lanka and two against Pakistan.

Since last year’s Ashes finished 2-2, with Australia retaining the urn, England have lost away series to India (4-1) and Pakistan (2-1) but won at home against the West Indies (3-0) and Sri Lanka (2-1).

When it comes to World Test Championship standings, Australia are well ahead. Cummins’ side are sitting second (58.89 per cent), behind South Africa (63.33 per cent), while England (43.18) are in sixth place and out of the running to make June’s WTC final at Lord’s.

Both teams are performing steadily. Neither is dominating opponents, but there are certainly no crisis talks in either camp.

However, beating Australia in Australia would be an enormous achievement – even for an England side with renewed enthusiasm under coach Brendon McCullum. The last England team to do it was Andrew Strauss’ side of 2010-11.

While recent Ashes scorelines in Australia have been emphatically one-sided in Australia’s favour – 5-0 (2013-14), 4-0 (2017-18) and 4-0 (2021-22) – Botham scoffed at the suggestion some young England players might be overawed by the occasion.

“Overawed by what? They won’t be. Quite the opposite. I think they’ll be pumped up,” Botham said. “England are in a good position. They won’t be rabbits in headlights, I can assure you of that. They’re ready for it.

“I think they’ll come here to win. All they do is think about winning. That’s a good attitude to have.

“You want to play against the best and Australia is right up there. They’ve got quite a bit of Test cricket to come before they get here, so I think they’ll be in good nick.”

Age profile

Nathan McSweeney, axed for the Boxing Day Test, was the only member of Australia’s side in Brisbane under 30.

Meanwhile, eight of England’s 11 players from the third Test against New Zealand are in their 20s – opener Zak Crawley (26), No.3 Jacob Bethell (21), the world’s No.2 ranked batsman Harry Brook (25), No.6 Ollie Pope (24), plus all four bowlers Gus Atkinson (26), Brydon Carse (29), Matthew Potts (26) and Shoaib Bashir (21).

“They’re young and they’re learning. England are regrouping and growing quickly,” Botham said.

Australia have an ageing team, some of whom might not even make it to next year’s Ashes. Usman Khawaja says he wants to feature in the opening Test against England in Perth on November 21 next year but an average of 24.07 in 2024 might take that decision out of his hands.

Steve Smith, 35, is also low on runs in 2024, averaging 28.08 from eight Tests, despite a fighting century in Brisbane.

The average age of Australia’s team at the Gabba was 32.6. England, by comparison, fielded a side with an average age of 26.9 in the third Test.

Botham is not bothered by the age of players but is concerned about the future of Josh Hazlewood following news that a calf injury will rule him out for the series against India. Hazlewood has the most wickets for Australia this year, with 35 at 13.6.

“Josh Hazlewood has another injury … so that’s going to be a concern,” Botham said. “It’s quite remarkable that – we found out in commentary – in the last three years Australia’s played 34 Tests and Josh has only played 16. He’s been unfit for 18 Tests.

“I hope that he is fit and well, because I want to see the best of the best. He is one of the best bowlers around. Age isn’t a factor. Look at Mitch Starc. He’s bowled as well in these last few Tests as I’ve ever seen from him.”

England also have stars up their sleeve, with fast bowlers Jofra Archer and Mark Wood also likely to bolster their XI if fit. Atkinson (52 wickets at 22.15) and Bashir (49 wickets at 40.16) sit second and third, respectively, on the leading wicket takers list for 2024.

“We have three bowlers that can bowl around 140 to 150km/h,” Botham said. “If they all stay fit, they’ll be a three-pronged attack and one [Stokes] that’s a bit slower at about 140. England have got the quality pace and spin.”

The batting

Joe Root has been in phenomenal touch this year, scoring 1556 runs at 55.57, including six centuries. On numbers alone, he is comfortably the best Test batsman in the world, and No.1 according to the ICC’s rankings. However, Root has never scored a Test century in Australia.

Brook, who debuted in September 2022 for England, has never played a Test in Australia. His explosive style and career strike rate of 88.37 in Tests makes him a real threat, according to Botham, who loves watching England’s bold approach.

“You’ve got Travis Head and we’ve got about six of those,” Botham said. “They all tee off and it will work a lot of the time.

“I haven’t seen a great deal of [Brook] live but he has an abundance of talent. He rises to the challenge. The bigger the game, the better he gets. Ben Stokes is there. Bethell is just coming into the side. These guys are all hungry.

“Sometimes it doesn’t work, but they’re very aggressive. They score quickly. They put bums on seats and people come to watch Test cricket. They’re drawing bigger crowds in India, New Zealand, England and Australia. Boxing Day next year is already sold out.”

During the interview, Australian spinner Nathan Lyon walked past and wished Botham a Merry Christmas.

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“You get out of that croc water OK?” Lyon asked, referring to Botham’s recent fall into crocodile-infested waters in Darwin while on a fishing trip with Merv Hughes.

“Ha, yes, thanks mate,” Botham said with a grin. “That was lucky.”

Provided all things go smoothly, Lyon is approaching his seventh Ashes series. He has taken on Glenn McGrath’s job as the Australian player to cheekily declare a series whitewash before each summer.

Botham isn’t convinced, but there is a lot of cricket to be played between now and then.

“England have always got a chance against Australia, don’t worry about that,” Botham said. “You might be surprised by what you see.”

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