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No.1 scenarios: Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff battle for top spot in Melbourne

No.1 scenarios: Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff battle for top spot in Melbourne

World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka will look to hold off No.2 Iga Swiatek and No.3 Coco Gauff to leave the Australian Open in the top spot on the PIF WTA Rankings.

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A two-time defending champion at Melbourne Park, Sabalenka is defending a full 2,000 points over the next two weeks. No.3 Gauff, who lost to Sabalenka last year in the semifinals, is defending 780. Swiatek lost in the third round to Linda Noskova last year. The former No.1 is defending the fewest number of points of the Top 3 with 130. 

Here’s what Sabalenka, Swiatek and Gauff need to do to leave with the No.1 ranking:

No.1 Sabalenka must reach the quarterfinals to have a chance at staying No.1, although that marker could move as Swiatek progresses through the tournament. If Swiatek returns to the third round, then Sabalenka must reach the semifinals. If Swiatek reaches the semifinals, then Sabalenka must reach the final. Should Swiatek and Sabalenka meet in the final, the winner would leave Australia with the No.1 ranking. 

No.2 Swiatek is defending only 130 points at the Australian Open, compared to Sabalenka’s 2,000 championship points. She could retake the No.1 ranking in the early stages of the tournament with early exits by Gauff and Sabalenka.

No.3 Gauff is looking to ascend to singles No.1 for the first time in her career. Her only path to the top spot is to win the title AND with Sabalenka before the semifinals and Swiatek not advancing to the third round.

How we got here: Swiatek first ascended to No.1 after Ashleigh Barty’s sudden retirement in April 2022. The Pole held the top spot for 75 consecutive weeks until Sabalenka unseated her in September of 2023. Sabalenka’s first stint at No.1 lasted for eight weeks, with Swiatek overtaking her by winning her last 11 matches of 2023 to finish the season as year-end No.1.

Swiatek’s second reign at No.1 lasted for 11 months. In 2024, Sabalenka slowly reeled her in with the best season of her career, which included two Grand Slam titles and the WTA 1000 titles in Cincinnati and Wuhan. Sabalenka overtook Swiatek in October and finished the season as the year-end No.1 for the first time. She opened her new season by rolling to the WTA 500 title in Brisbane. Swiatek also enjoyed a strong start to the year, going 4-1 at the United Cup, including wins over Elena Rybakina, Karolina Muchova and Katie Boulter, to lead Poland back to the final. 

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As Sabalenka surged, so did Gauff. The 20-year-old American has been nearly unbeatable since the start of October, compiling a 17-2 record since the US Open. During that run, she won the WTA 1000 in Beijing, the WTA Finals Riyadh, and started the 2025 season with an undefeated turn at the United Cup, where she beat Swiatek along the way.

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The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam of the 2025 season. Main draw play begins on Sunday, Jan.12.