Australia

Mon: Inflation gauge (Dec), Job ads (Dec)

Tue: Consumer confidence (Jan)

Wed: Construction work (Q3)

Thu: Labour force (Dec), Rio Tinto operations (Q4)

International

Mon: CH — Trade balance (Dec)

Tue: US — Producer price index (Dec), small business optimism (Dec)

Wed: US — Consumer price index (Dec)

              UK — Consumer price index (Dec)

Thu: US — Retail sales (Dec), NAHB housing index, jobless claims

Fri: CH — GDP (Q4), retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment (Dec)

         US — Housing starts, industrial production (Dec)

          EU — Consumer price index (Dec)

Thursday’s labour figures are the main interest of the week.

The jobs’ market remains tight with November’s unemployment rate falling to 3.9% from 4.1%.

There may be a bit of seasonality in that result which accounts for a consensus call that unemployment will edge up a notch to 4% and 15-thousand new jobs created in December, down from 36-thousand the month before.

Offshore, the key data will be US inflation on Thursday, particularly after last week’s stronger than expected jobs numbers dialled back expectations on the Fed’s rate cutting plans and caused a bit of a conniption on the markets.

Higher than expected inflation may well result in another sell-off on equity markets.

US core inflation is still stuck just above 3%.

A month-on-month increase of 0.2% would maintain the status quo; anything higher won’t make the Fed, or for that matter, the markets happy.

Friday is a busy day for China’s National Bureau of Statistics with fourth-quarter GDP to be tabled along with the important monthly data on retail sales, industrial production and infrastructure investment (FAI).

After much handwringing over the past few quarters, in now appears likely China will hit its 2024 GDP of 5%.

Three months ago, GDP growth came in at a disappointing 4.6%.

However, a final quarter pick-up, particularly in the services sector, and stronger property sales should be enough to deliver GDP growth across 2024 right on the 5% target triggering a wave of high fives and back slapping among Politburo members.

As for the December data, retail sales are expected to tick up a bit to a still modest 3.4% growth.

It’s likely to be a similar story with industrial production and fixed asset investment (aka infrastructure and construction) — a marginal increase, but still sub-trend.