Is Anthony Albanese’s government about to be smashed by the freight train of voter anger about inflation that has wreaked havoc and destroyed governments across the world?

There’s one statistic that can give us a hint — and depending on how you read it, it is both good and bad for the government. How can it be both? Stay with me.

In the United States, as pollsters kept telling us the race was neck and neck, tied, within the margin of error, ultimately there was really only one thing that mattered.

Voters were overwhelmingly telling pollsters they believed the country was headed in the wrong direction. And if you think the country is headed in the wrong direction, it’s a pretty strong sign that you might be in a mood to sack the people in charge of that direction.

And this is where it gets super interesting.

New research shows dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at the same level as it was just before the Morrison government lost the election, in an ominous sign for the government.

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Better shape than overseas

Using data from a nationally representative sample of more than 3,500 Australians, the ANU study explores satisfaction with democracy, trust in institutions, political attitudes, and voting intentions ahead of next year’s federal election.

And while it shows dissatisfaction is at the level it was at when Scott Morrison was given the boot, it also shows that we are in much better shape when it comes to people’s trust in the direction of our country than people in the UK or America.

Leading up to our election, in comparison to voters leading up to the UK, Europe and US elections in 2024, most Australians report satisfaction with the direction of the country.

More than three in five reported that they are satisfied or very satisfied, rising to more than two-thirds of those aged 18 to 34 years.

And there’s one more figure that will give the Albanese government pause for some hope: unlike countries where populist parties or leaders have had electoral success, the Australian population also tends to be reasonably satisfied with democracy itself. 

In October, 64 per cent of those polled told researchers they satisfied or very satisfied with democracy.

Education splits voter sentiment

But there is a storm brewing and it’s time to sit up and notice.

In a warning shot on the health of our democracy, the report finds the biggest divide we are witnessing is on education, where those with relatively low levels of education do not see democracy working for them.

This is the statistic from the study that should keep all politicians and lovers of democracy up at night. The education divide is an emerging story around the world, and it spells trouble for our institutions and systems that have allowed our country to thrive for so long.

Only 60.1 per cent of those that have not completed Year 12 were satisfied/very satisfied with democracy. This rises to 62.6 per cent for those who have completed Year 12 but do not have a degree, and even further to 69.2 per cent of those with a degree.

The Australian National University’s Nicholas Biddle says the education divide was the most worrying aspect of all.

“If those with relatively low levels of education do not see democracy working for them, then there is a real risk that they will direct their support to parties that have weaker ties to democratic norms and institutions,” he says.

This is, of course, what is happening where populist leaders like Donald Trump are breaking political norms and galvanising the votes of those disenfranchised and left out.

Among those with a degree, there is a more favourable view towards the Labor Party than to the Liberal Party. This is similar to a trend we’ve seen in the United States where the Democrats are increasingly supported by higher income people while the Republicans are supported by the working class.

This is what Labor here fears most — losing the votes of workers in its heartland that are being targeted by Peter Dutton.

Trust in institutions is declining

The paper, which will be released on December 4,  has found that there is already evidence that trust in some institutions is declining.

The judiciary is the most trusted institution of the seven that the researchers asked about (63.5 per cent trusted somewhat or completely), but this figure has declined since the 2022 federal election (down from 78.1 per cent using a very similar methodology).

Social media, though improving slightly, remains the least trusted institution.

Trust varies significantly by education, with higher trust levels observed amongst those with a university degree.

And fascinatingly, Australians appear reluctant to identify as either left or right on the political spectrum, with 41.9 per cent of respondents identifying as being exactly in the centre of the distribution. Of the remainder, 23.3 per cent gave a value skewing left wing and 34.8 per cent gave a value skewing right wing.

A key finding was that satisfaction with democracy and trust in institutions are generally higher among left-leaning individuals with centrists tending to have lower levels of trust and confidence.

Perhaps unsurprisingly but still chillingly, economic pressures and social isolation have a strong association with political attitudes.

More than three in 10 respondents reported they are finding it difficult to get by on their current income, with younger and middle-aged groups particularly affected. Financial stress correlates with lower satisfaction with democracy and reduced political trust.

Similarly, loneliness — experienced by 42 per cent of Australians in some capacity — aligns with disengagement from politics and institutions.

The differences in satisfaction with democracy are greater when looked at through sex than age. Combined, 66.9 per cent of men were satisfied/very satisfied compared to only 61.5 per cent of women.

According to Professor Biddle: “In the US there were large differences by gender in voting patterns and political views. Australia shows some differing patterns though, with the disengagement and distrust in institutions amongst males not showing up strongly in the data. 

“Rather, it appears that females are less satisfied with democracy than males, suggesting that the 2025 election might again have a strong gender element to it.”

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Disappointment in politics

Perhaps the biggest take away for politicians should be what respondents make of their work.

The biggest relative difference in trust comes with regards to parliament. Among those with at least a bachelor’s degree, 61 per cent trust parliament somewhat or completely. This drops to 52.5 per cent among those that have completed Year 12 but do not have a degree, and even further to 42.6 per cent among those that have not completed Year 12.

Among those aged 25 to 54 years, almost exactly half (50 per cent) agree or strongly agree that politicians in the government are corrupt. This is a little lower amongst those aged 18 to 24 years (44.7 per cent).

And the two minor parties were generally viewed less favourably than the two major parties. A high percentage of respondents has a “strong dislike” towards the Greens (24.9 per cent). For the Nationals, it was more like indifference with 34.3 per cent of respondents rating them in the middle of strong like and dislike.

Patricia Karvelas is the presenter of RN Breakfast and co-host of the Party Room podcast. She also hosts Q+A on ABC TV Mondays at 9.35pm.