The ABS will release its November monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator tomorrow at 11:30am AEDT.

I’ll have the story for online and Sam Yang and Kate Ainsworth are going to have live coverage on the blog across tomorrow.

Until then, the Nvidia CEO’s presentation has left me wondering whether the forthcoming androids will dream of electric sheep.

The Australian share market has managed to eke out a moderate gain, despite falls for the big iron ore miners.

The decline for Fortescue was particularly brutal, off 4.4% to $17.25, but BHP and Rio Tinto were also down 0.7% each.

A benchmark Singapore iron ore future for February fell modestly to $US96 a tonne.

A surge in tech stocks (+1.3%), and solid gains for healthcare (+0.8%), consumer cyclicals (+0.5%) and financials (+0.5%) offset those losses in mining, utilities and consumer non-cyclicals.

Nine Entertainment was the day’s biggest gainer, while Champion Iron was the biggest loser on the ASX 200, just edging out Fortescue.

Overall, the ASX 200 index closed up 0.3% to 8,285 points.

The Australian dollar also had a better day, despite the weakness in the iron ore sector, up 0.4% to 62.67 US cents.

With the gigantic increase in data generation, accelerated by artificial intelligence, data centres are struggling to keep up with demand.

One of the main limitations is the supply of electricity.

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang says the company’s latest chips aim to assist with that.

“Every single data center is limited by power,” he explains at CES 2025.

“And, so, if the performance per watt of Blackwell is four times our last generation, then the revenue that could be generated, the amount of business that can be generated in the data centre, is increased by a factor of four.”

Whether that’s enough to keep up with the surging demand from AI is, of course, another issue.

Despite ABS figures showing dwelling approvals fell in November, the Housing Industry Association remains upbeat about a modest recovery from recent lows in home building.

“Total dwelling approvals fell by 3.6 per cent compared to the previous month but were still up 7.2 per cent over the three-month period,” explained HIA senior economist Matt King.

“Total dwelling approvals were up 5.4 per cent in the three month period compared with the corresponding period in 2023.

“Detached house approvals in the three months to November 2024 increased by a modest 0.7 per cent on the previous three-month period and climbed 7.1 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year.

“Following a period of prolonged weakness, there are signs of life again in building approvals, which is pointing to a nascent recovery in new home building.”

However, he says the recovery in apartment building has been less consistent.

“Multi-unit approvals rose by 20.1 per cent in the three months to November 2024 and were up 2.6 per cent on the corresponding period in 2023,” King observed.

“Despite some observable improvement, approvals for multi-units have been trending at decade-low levels and remain subdued amid challenges with capacity.

“For the entirety of 2024, multi-unit approval volumes were erratic and trending at decade-low levels.

“The sector is still reeling from a perfect storm of building material cost escalation resulting from supply chain bottlenecks, skilled labour shortages, credit constraints for businesses, and an elevated public sector infrastructure pipeline that is absorbing skilled trades.”

The recovery in dwelling approvals is also very inconsistent across the nation, with strong growth in SE Queensland, Perth and Adelaide, where property prices have been surging, but continued weakness in Sydney, where prices are beginning to stall.

In a scene that wouldn’t be out of place in a Philip K Dick novel, a row of robots is raised up on stage behind Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

The accompanying video talks about teaching the robots through “group mimic”.

There is an “omniverse” and “cosmos multiverse” simulation engine that then trains the robot policy.

“The age of general robotics is arriving”, the video proclaims.

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A lot of people are watching Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang deliver a keynote address at CES 2025, a major tech gathering in Las Vegas, Nevada.

You can watch his address live on YouTube.

One key focus has been Nvidia’s contribution to the development of self-driving cars.

He just casually announced a partnership with Toyota to help power their next generation autonomous vehicles.

A huge number of car and truck companies are already using Nvidia technology as part of their autonomous vehicles.

Mr Huang also just unveiled “Thor”, the company’s next generation computer for autonomous vehicles, which he says is 20 times more powerful than the previous model.

Also loving Huang’s jacket.

Hi Kezza, good question.

I can see that Qantas shares are up 3% to $9.24 (at 2:20pm AEDT).

I also can’t see either any market announcements or media reports that would explain it.

Sometimes there’s a broker note or analysis that can drive these kind of moves and, if we’re on their mailing list at all, media generally get those hours or even a day or two after clients of the firm.

Otherwise, maybe people have just come back from holidays and decided that they want to buy a piece of an airline?

Certainly, the airline has gained some serious altitude from share prices lows below $1 going back 11 or 12 years.

Hi John, good question.

It does seem like a US media report that tariffs under the new administration might be limited briefly lowered bond yields (interest rate expectations) before Donald Trump rejected the report as fake news and reversed the decline.

More broadly, here’s some commentary on the US dollar from Rabobank senior macro strategist Benjamin Picton.

“Many analysts continue to expect [US] dollar outperformance in 2025 with an alleged shrinking US trade deficit (courtesy of tariffs) and relatively tight monetary policy (courtesy of tariff-induced inflation) being the main constructive influences,” he writes.

“However, if those forecasts don’t play out there is plenty of air under the DXY [a US dollar index against a basket of currencies] from current levels.

“If broad-based dollar weakness were to occur it would likely push commodity prices higher (since commodities are typically denominated in dollars) and re-stoke goods inflation pressures.”

The higher commodity prices would be welcome for Australia, but probably not the higher inflation [and therefore interest rates] that would come with them.

Shares of IDP Education rose as much as 7.3% to $13.16, their highest since late November, making it the best performer on the benchmark index.

Macquarie has upgraded the Australian international education services provider to “outperform” from “neutral” on student placement and English language testing volumes returning to sustainable growth from FY26.

Impact of the recent lowering of student visa caps and upcoming elections in Australia and Canada mostly annualise in 1H25, according to Macquarie.

IDP’s earnings are significantly linked to student immigration policies within Australia, Canada, the UK and the US.

The company is going to report its 1H25 results on February 27.

Macquarie retains price target of $16 a share.

The total number of dwellings approved fell 3.6 per cent in November to 14,998, following a 5.2 per cent rise in October, according to seasonally adjusted data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Daniel Rossi, ABS head of construction statistics, said the fall in dwellings was across all residential building types.

“Approvals for private sector houses fell 1.7 per cent, while private dwellings excluding houses dropped 10.8 per cent,” he said.

“Despite the fall, approvals for total dwellings remain 3.2 per cent higher than November 2023.”

The 1.7 per cent fall in private sector house approvals across Australia (to 9,028 dwellings), follows a 4.0 per cent fall in October. Despite this, approvals for private sector houses remain 3.8 per cent higher than one year ago.

Queensland was the only state to see growth in private sector house approvals in November, with a 4.3 per cent rise.

Private sector dwellings excluding houses (which includes semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses and apartments) fell 10.8 per cent (to 5,285 dwellings), which was 6.4 per cent lower than one year ago.

The drop in November was driven by a large fall in apartment approvals in New South Wales and Victoria, following a strong October result.

The value of total building approved rose 6.6 per cent (to $14.32 billion), following a 2.3 per cent fall in October.

The value of approved non-residential building rose 18.4 per cent (to $5.96 billion), following an 11.2 per cent fall in October.

“Signs are that we will see further modest improvement in 2025, with attached dwellings providing increased support. An elevated dropout rate to the commencement stage is anticipated to persist until financing costs ease,” Timothy Hibbert, head of property and building forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia said in a note.

“We don’t expect a more meaningful double-digit recovery in total approvals until 2026, when mortgage rate cuts aid the release of pent-up housing demand, while traction on the supply policy front will become increasingly evident. Utility connection bottlenecks and trade labour shortages will inevitably apply a speed limit on the recovery.”

Australian shares rose for a fourth straight day, on the back of gains in banks offsetting losses in miners and energy stocks as investors took cues from Wall Street performance overnight.

The ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to 8,282 by 11:45am AEDT. The benchmark closed 0.1% higher on Monday.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose on Monday with a rally in semiconductor stocks and a report suggesting a less aggressive tariff stance from the incoming Trump administration.

Locally, traders are also on the lookout for the November consumer price index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. The figure is expected to increase to 2.2% compared with a rise of 2.1% in October, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Financials were up 0.5% in their fourth session of consecutive gains. Three of the “big four” banks rose between 0.4% and 0.8%.

Miners lost 0.5%, falling for the third straight day.

Iron ore prices were pressured by a slower hot metal output in China and a weakness in the top consumer’s equity markets.

BHP fell 0.5% while Rio Tinto fell 0.1%.

Gold stocks declined 0.1% as prices of the precious metal fell on higher US treasury yields.

But Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining gained 0.4% each.

Energy stocks were 0.2% higher, despite a dip in oil prices. The sub-index is on its way to a nine-day winning streak.

Woodside Energy was flat and Santos gained 1%.

Among company news, shares of Syrah Resources lost 2.3% to $0.21 after it secured a loan waiver amid Mozambique unrest.

Australian consumer confidence has had a boost in the first week of 2025, according to a new report from ANZ-Roy Morgan.

Consumer confidence rose 3.6pts last week to 87.5pts. The four-week moving average lifted 0.5pts to 86.3pts.

“While it is not unusual for a confidence boost in the first week of the year, this represented a top-three result since the beginning of 2023,” ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said in a note.

“The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index recorded its third highest reading since June 2022, though was below the Black Friday peak.”

She expected the upward momentum in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence to continue through 2025, as tax cuts, rising real wages and eventually rate cuts support household disposable incomes.

ANZ Research expects the first RBA rate cut in May 2025.

The Australian share market has opened higher, with the education stocks leading the way.

The ASX 200 was up 25 points or 0.3% to 8,282, by 10:22am AEDT.

Seven out of the 11 sectors were trading in the green, with the education sector gaining 4.9%.

Here are the top and bottom movers at open.

A report on an emergency exercise released under Freedom of Information reveals how Australia’s dependency on imported fuel could leave it vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.

A former high-ranking air force officer says there has been little improvement, with government documents revealing its frailty through an all-too-realistic training exercise.

Australia is almost entirely reliant on imported diesel to transport food and medicine around the country but, should there be a market failure, the federal government’s Australian Petroleum Statistics state it has just 22 days’ worth in reserve.

Read more from Malcolm Sutton.

The International Transport Workers’ Federation recovered $30.7 million in lost wages for seafarers in 2024.

ITF’s national coordinator Ian Bray says there has been a significant increase in stolen wages in recent years.

The Searfarers Centre in Port Hedland provides support to 10,000 crew members and informs the public about the industry.

Read more from Rosemary Murphy.

• ASX 200: +0.2% to 8,273 points
• Australian dollar: +0.1% at 62.49 US cents
• S&P 500: +0.6% to 5,975 points
• Nasdaq: +1.2% to 19,864 points
• FTSE: +0.3% to 8,249 points
• EuroStoxx: +1% to 513 points
• Spot gold: Flat at $US2,636/ounce
• Brent crude: -0.3% to $US76.08/barrel
• Iron ore: -1.2% to $US97.00/tonne
• Bitcoin: +0.3% to $US101,942

Price current around 12:17pm AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Most Australians have become all too aware of how tightly our economic fortunes have become entwined with China, but perhaps we’re still guilty of ignoring some key warning signs from our largest trading partner.

Nowhere is this more apparent than in real estate.

China’s gargantuan property bust has been in the headlines for several years, with some of the world’s biggest developers, notably Evergrande, collapsing under a mountain of debt and unsold and unfinished units.

But, arguably, this property meltdown should have been receiving far more attention Down Under than it has.

Read this analysis from Business Editor Michael Janda.

2024 saw a record amount of money invested on Wall Street by everyday Australians.

A record $5 billion was invested into Wall Street stocks last year by Australians, according to data compiled by investment firm Global X.

A stronger-than-expected US economy and easy access, made possible by technology, has seen billions transferred from Australian bank accounts into the US.

Analysts and economists warn that, historically, periods of investment enthusiasm have been followed by share market downturns.

Read more from our colleague David Taylor.