It is probably not entirely fair to assess the state of the economy on the basis of one of the most volatile and unpredictable pieces of data that Australia produces. There also isn’t all that much science behind most of the consensus figures. This is wet-finger forecasting most of the time, so beating consensus means comparatively little. 

To get a better view on what is really going on, the chart below looks at the three-month averages for employment and unemployment. 

What this shows is that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the number of unemployed was trending higher, and full time job creation ground to a halt, and only part-time job growth kept total employment moving higher. 

Now, trend unemployment is still rising, but at a much slower pace, and though the full-time job growth trend has dropped a little, it is still running at around 10,000 per month, though part-time job growth has slowed a little more. 

In short, having hit a soft-patch at the end of 2023, the Australian labour market is currently ticking along at a modest pace. It wouldn’t take a lot to tip it into a weaker trajectory, but equally, there is also some potential for upside and the net picture is more positive than negative.