Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Conflict Needs Monitoring

Beyond the economic calendar, investors should monitor news updates from the Middle East. An further escalation in the conflict could trigger a flight to safety, impacting Aussie dollar demand.

Short-Term Forecast for AUD/USD

Near-term AUD/USD trends will likely hinge on the central bank commentary and the US Jobs Report. Weaker US labor market conditions could signal aggressive Fed rate cuts.

A narrowing in the interest rate differential between the US and Australia could push the AUD/USD toward $0.69. However, upbeat US labor market data could dampen expectations for multiple Q4 2024 Fed rate cuts, potentially driving the AUD/USD below $0.68.

Investors should closely monitor central bank signals and economic indicators, which could influence AUD/USD trends. Traders should monitor real-time data, news updates, and expert commentary to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Daily Chart: AUD/USD Breakout Intact

Despite this week’s pullback, the AUD/USD remains comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A breakout from $0.68500 would support a return to $0.69. Furthermore, a return to $0.69 could give the bulls a run at the September 30 high of $0.69411.

Traders should consider the Aussie housing sector data, the US Jobs Report, central bank commentary, and updates from the Middle East, which may influence AUD/USD price movements.

Conversely, failure to breakout from $0.68500 could signal a fall toward the $0.68006 support.

With a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 55.96, the Aussie dollar could climb to the $0.69500 level before entering overbought territory.