What’s going on here?

Australian job advertisements fell by 2.2% in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline.

What does this mean?

Data from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and employment website Indeed show that job ads fell 7.1% in the second quarter versus a 3.0% decline in the first. While June’s job ads were down year-on-year, they remained 17.8% higher than pre-pandemic levels. ANZ economists note that the decline pace in job ads has intensified, particularly for cleaners, tradespeople, and food service workers. A modest rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% is expected. These trends have influenced the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates at 4.35% for five straight meetings. However, inflation concerns have led markets to expect a 65% chance of an August rate hike, pending upcoming labor market data.

Why should I care?

For markets: Navigating the waters.

The decline in job ads signals a cooling economic environment complicated by inflationary pressures. Investors and analysts are eyeing the jobs report due on July 18, which could significantly impact markets, especially if it hints at labor market resilience or further weakening.

The bigger picture: Global economic shifts.

Australia’s job market trends mirror broader global economic cooling, with many advanced economies facing high inflation and interest rates. These conditions could shape future RBA policy decisions, as central banks worldwide balance controlling inflation with sustaining employment. The upcoming jobs report will be critical in determining if the Australian economy can stabilize or if more aggressive policies will be needed.