National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for June 2024

Business Confidence 4.0

Business Conditions also 4.0

• prior 6.0
• the conditions index is a more objective measure compared with the sentiment-driven confidence index
• index of employment
  dropped 6 points to 0, under its long-run average
• sales flat
• labour costs and purchase costs slowing
• product prices quarterly rate of 0.7%
• retail prices held at 1.5%

Comments from the report from NAB:

• “While its only one month’s read, the employment index … may be signalling that the
  broader slowing in the economy is flowing through more strongly
  to labour demand”
• “Price pressures continue to ease in a trend sense though
  the data certainly remains bumpy”

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The slide for the employment sub-index is concerning. The Reserve Bank of Australia have expressed their intention to preserve, as much as possible, the gains for the jobs market despite high interest rates. If the NAB survey is indicative those gains may be more difficult to hold onto. The probability of a rate hike at the next RBA meeting is not zero, watch the next inflation report: