Australia has officially entered its high-risk weather season — and with it comes heat, rain, and fire.
Over the next four months, the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) long-range forecast predicts an “unusual” mixed bag of weather, in which tropical cyclones, bushfires, severe weather, heatwaves and floods hit some parts of the country.
While not intended to be a prediction, the long-range forecast acts as a warning for higher risks over the summer.
Here’s what you can expect this summer.
A higher risk of bushfires
The BoM says there’s a greater chance of bushfires across the country this summer.
The bureau’s Dr Karl Braganza says while we’re looking at a wet December, major fires may follow in January and February, particularly if there are drier conditions. But if there’s more rain, the risk will ease.
“There is an increased risk of fire in the south,” Minister for Emergency Management of Australia Jenny McAllister said, with emphasis on South Australia’s lower coastal south-east and the lower Eyre Peninsula.
Victoria will also face a higher threat of bushfires, as will northern and central NSW.
The southern half of the Northern Territory will also be at greater risk.
“Unusually high” rainfall
It might be a wetter Christmas than usual, with above-average rainfall predicted for most of Australia, particularly during December.
There is also an increased chance of “unusually high rainfall” for parts of eastern and north-western Australia.
“Looking at the bureau’s long-range outlook, we are looking at increased odds of a wet December particularly across most of the east and into the north-west of Western Australia,” Braganza said.
Warmer days and nights, heatwaves
A regular occurrence in Australia, this summer won’t be much different with heatwaves predicted across the country.
Across December to February, we’re also expected to experience warmer-than-average days across large parts of the country.
We’ll likely have sweatier sleeps, with warmer-than-average nights being more likely across almost all of Australia.
Northern, eastern and western Australia will also experience more “unusually high” overnight temperatures.
“We are seeing evidence that we will see a warmer than average summer with a risk of extreme heat, particularly across the north,” Braganza said. “It is likely to be quite sticky and humid at times.”
Braganza also urged vulnerable people, the elderly, and those with medical conditions sensitive to extreme heat to exercise caution.
McAllister urged people, especially those in higher-risk areas, to be prepared.
“We should all be prepared for the risk of heat waves, the largest killer of the natural hazards,” McAllister said.
“My message to the community is we cannot eliminate these risks. But we can prepare for them.”
Cyclones, severe storms and floods
McAllister said Australians on the east coast should also prepare for a summer of severe storms.
Some parts of Australia can also expect a higher-than-average chance of severe cyclones.
“December will raise the risk of flooding, particularly in the east,” Braganza said.
“It will also raise the possibility that the tropical cyclones we will see will be more severe than those that we have seen in the past.”
Typically, four cyclones make landfall over high-risk weather seasons.
Advice for the incoming summer
Experts advise people in higher-risk areas to prepare for potential weather hazards.
“Understand the risk in your local area,” McAllister said. “Have a plan and a kit with things you need to take with you if you need to leave.”
If you have special needs or care for someone with special needs, think extra hard about what extra requirements you may need when making your plan, McAllister said.
“Finally, please listen to authorities and heed their advice.”
McAllister warned against complacency about risk, urging people to prepare.
“In the Australian context, even our normal level of risk can still bring fire, can still bring flood, can still bring cyclone and can still bring heatwave.”
