Australia’s headline unemployment rate was 4 per cent in May, down 0.1 percentage points from April.

The unemployment rate declined slightly because employment rose by 40,000 people in May, and the number of officially unemployed people fell by 9,000.

The Bureau of Statistics says in April there had been more unemployed people than usual who were waiting to start work, so some of the fall in unemployment in May, and some of the rise in employment, reflected those people finally starting work.

However, ABS data show the “trend” unemployment rate — which looks through the more volatile seasonally adjusted monthly figure — picked up slightly in May, from 3.9 per cent to 4 per cent.

It is the highest the trend unemployment rate has been since the ABS re-introduced the trend series data in April 2022, once the tumultuous lockdown period had ended.

Analysts say the unemployment rate will likely keep rising in the months ahead, and the Reserve Bank will probably stay in its wait-and-see mode.

“At 4 per cent, the unemployment rate is spot on the RBA’s forecast for the second quarter,” Tony Sycamore from IG said.

“Spare capacity is gradually increasing, reflected by softening in the forward indicators and the trend higher in the unemployment rate. 

“Today’s numbers will not impact the outcome of next week’s RBA meeting, where rates will likely be kept on hold at 4.35 per cent for a fifth straight meeting,” he said. 

In May, employment growth was driven by full-time employment.