After the joy of ‘rose gold’ in Tokyo, Australia’s Boomers can still dream of a Paris Olympic medal to add to their collection.
And the equation is, in some ways, simple heading into their final group stage game: defeat Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Greece (Friday 9:30pm AEST) and the Aussies will make the quarter finals.
But even with a win, there are a variety of scenarios for how the Boomers are seeded and how the playoff bracket would shape up; and with a loss, it gets especially complicated.
Foxsports.com.au breaks down the scenarios and the seeding possibilities heading into the final group stage games.
GROUP STAGE STANDINGS (After two games)
Group A
1. Canada (2-0, +17)
2. Australia (1-1, +2)
3. Spain (1-1, -5)
4. Greece (0-2, -14)
Group B
1. Germany (2-0, +33)
2. France (2-0, +16)
3. Japan (0-2, -24)
4. Brazil (0-2, -25)
Group C
1. USA (2-0, +43)
2. Serbia (1-1, +15)
3. South Sudan (1-1, -6)
4. Puerto Rico (0-2, -52)
The top two teams, plus the two best third-place teams, advance
REMAINING GAMES (All times AEST)
Friday August 2
7pm: Japan vs Brazil
9:30pm: Australia vs Greece
Saturday August 3
1:15am: Canada vs Spain
5am: France vs Germany
Sunday August 4
1:15am: Puerto Rico vs USA
5am: Serbia vs South Sudan
The Boomers will know by the end of the Canada-Spain game on Saturday morning whether they are in or out of the tournament, but their potential quarter-final opponent would not be determined until Sunday morning’s final game.
IF AUSTRALIA BEATS GREECE…
The Boomers will advance into the quarter-finals as one of the top two qualifiers from Group A.
If Canada loses to Spain by 9 points or more, the Boomers would finish 1st. Otherwise the Boomers would finish 2nd.
IF AUSTRALIA LOSES TO GREECE…
Then the Boomers need Canada to beat Spain.
The Boomers can still finish 2nd in the group if their loss to Greece is by 9 points or less, and Canada defeats Spain.
The Boomers would finish 3rd if the loss to Greece is by between 10 and 16 points, and Canada defeats Spain.
The Boomers would finish 4th, and be eliminated, if the loss to Greece is by 18 points or more, even if Canada defeats Spain.
If Spain defeats Canada in combination with any Aussie loss, the Boomers will finish 4th and be eliminated.
WHAT ABOUT SEEDING FOR THE QUARTER-FINALS?
To seed the quarter-finals the eight qualifiers will be split into four buckets:
Pot D: The top two first-placed teams
Pot E: The third-best first-place team, and the best second-place team
Pot F: The other two second-place teams
Pot G: The top two third-placed teams
The teams from Pot D will play the teams from Pot G, and the Pot E teams will play the teams from Pot F, in the quarter-finals.
Teams cannot play a team from the same group in the quarter-finals.
It is extremely unlikely Australia can finish in the top two overall and make it into Pot D, with the France-Germany winner to be 3-0, and the USA almost certain to thrash lowly Puerto Rico and move to 3-0.
Therefore it’s all about finishing in the top two, since it guarantees avoiding the USA.
Since the Boomers cannot play Canada (the likely Group A winner) in the quarter-finals, if they finish in the top two, they are most likely to play either the loser of Germany vs France or the winner of Serbia vs South Sudan in their quarter-final.
If the Boomers finish third, they are instead likely to face the winner of Germany vs France or the USA.