In cricket, when things are going well, nobody moves.
Shift in your seat or duck to the toilet with a teammate in the 90s, and you better hope they don’t get out.
The same goes when teams are winning.
Losers chop and change in search of answers, but winners stand pat so as not to risk messing with whatever delicate balance they have working for them.
Since Pat Cummins took over as captain for the 2021/22 summer, Australia’s men’s team has played 32 Tests for 20 wins, six draws and six losses, including an Ashes win at home, an Ashes retention away, a World Test Championship, and only one lost series (last year in India).
In that span, just 22 men have filled the potentially 352 playing slots for Australia, including six debutants.
Middle-order batter Travis Head said that consistency and the convivial atmosphere within the locker room it brings, highlighted in the upcoming third season of Prime Video docuseries The Test, is a privilege of success.
“[It’s created by] everyone playing well at the same time,” he told ABC Sport.
“Continuity is a great thing. Guys in form, guys playing well and then off the back of some performances and good series and a winning dynamic, it lends itself to keeping that group together for a period of time, which has been nice.
“It feels like this group’s pretty solid.”
But that admittedly cosy stasis can come back to bite further down the road.
We saw it when Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Justin Langer, Matthew Hayden, Adam Gilchrist and Brett Lee played their final Tests in the space of two years.
Australia won less than half of its next 33 Tests after Hayden’s departure in January 2009 and handed debuts to 21 players in that time, a third of whom played fewer than five Tests, as they searched desperately for answers.
It feels like there could be a similar reckoning coming.
Of the 22 men’s Test players since the last Ashes in Australia, just six are currently under 30 — Marnus Labuschagne, Cameron Green, Matt Renshaw, Todd Murphy, Jhye Richardson and Matthew Kuhnemann — and of those six, only Labuschagne (who turns 30 next month) and Green are regulars.
Looking at the players who have been in squads without playing a game yet, only back-up wicketkeeper Josh Inglis and express paceman Lance Morris are yet to join the tricenarian club.
“There’ll be some change coming at certain points,” Head said.
“At some point some of the older guys will slowly transition and then you hope you get get consistency as quickly as you can and make it as seamless as possible.”
David Warner’s recent retirement left the team with an interesting dilemma. Selectors could …
They opted for the first choice, shifting Steve Smith to open and make way at number four for Green, who had lost his spot as first-choice all-rounder to Mitch Marsh during the Ashes in England.
While that may extend and revitalise the Test career of an Australian legend, it also robs a younger candidate of coming in to fill the void, earning his stripes surrounded by experienced and successful campaigners who can help him through the ups and downs of international cricket.
Green is the brightest prospect the sport has seen in years, decades maybe. He would have been fine. And at 24, he had plenty of time to get back in the team.
Now though, Smith is likely locked into the opener role for at least the start of the summer and Green is carrying the future of the team on his one enormous frame.
So, it doesn’t seem like selectors are keen to mess with the delicate balance that has the team humming right now.
Barring injury, how is a younger player supposed to break into the team if, when a golden opportunity comes up, selectors go in another direction?
Most of the players in the current set-up have achieved a lot in their careers, but in cricket there is no one crowning glory.
World Cups are great, but which one would you prefer: ODI or T20? Then there’s winning an Ashes in England, winning a Test series in India, not to mention individual goals that every elite sportsperson sets themselves consciously or subconsciously.
Knowing when to call time can be tricky, but with almost the entire squad that retained the Ashes in England last year over 30, you can assume most are closer to the end of their international careers than the beginning.
Throughout the newly released season of The Test there’s an undercurrent that the missed opportunities of 2023 very likely spelled the end for many players’ dreams of ever winning a series on English soil.
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This summer features an historic five-Test series against India, where Australia will be trying to hit back after an unprecedented four straight series losses at home and abroad, and England travels down under again in 25/26.
Head said, with how fine the margins are between dominating the game and having your spot in the team questioned, no-one had flagged any plans that far down the road.
“It’s hard to know where an endpoint is for a lot of the guys with how much we’ve got coming up,” he said.
“To be honest I’m not looking too far past the summer really. … India’s gonna be tough. I think everyone’s sights are set on that at the minute.
“[The next Ashes are] so far away. I’m just keen to get through India unscathed, play well, hopefully have an impact. And then we go onto the next one,” he added.
“We’ve been exceptionally lucky to have a team that’s stayed together for a while, but as we’ve seen over the summer, you’re not far away from being talked about again – the highs and lows of being in the Australian cricket team.”
And while players can focus on the here and now, higher-ups have to keep at least half an eye on the future.
Usman Khawaja will turn 38 during the series against India, spinner Nathan Lyon is fresh off the first serious injury of his career and will be 37 in November, Steve Smith will turn 35 next month, and seamer Mitchell Starc will join him before the summer of cricket is through.
Their time is coming, and if it comes all at once, the results could be dire.
It’s no coincidence that the only time Australia lost the Ashes at home in almost 40 years came in that vacuum after those aforementioned retirements from 2007 to 2009.
To avoid a similar situation in coming years, Australia has to make sure it brings some younger players into the squad.
“In the background, I know the conversations with a lot of [younger] guys will be about where they stand in the big scheme of things and what they need to do to get in that team,” Head said.
“I’m sure when that time comes for those next crop of guys, we’ll be fine.
“The key will be trying to get that continuity and consistency as quickly as we can.”
If Bancroft and Harris didn’t come into the team when Warner retired, carrying the 31-year-old specialist batters is a luxury the team can’t afford.
The likes of Ollie Davies, Nathan McSweeney, Henry Hunt or maybe even Jake Fraser-McGurk may benefit from being in and around the squad in the hustle and bustle of a major series and do the team some good.
If it comes down to it, Lance Morris should be preferred over a player like Michael Neser, who is probably due some time at home after playing just two Tests since being named in his first international squad six years ago.
Between World Cups, the World Test Championship, Ashes series, tours of India and Pakistan, this team has done remarkable things together and will be remembered fondly for years to come.
But time moves inexorably forward and the ramifications for not having a robust succession plan are immense.
Whether it’s this summer or next, the party is coming to an end for this group.
Before the lights are thrown up at the end of the night, we need to know who’s hosting the next bash, otherwise it might be years between drinks.
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