Analyzing a grand slam draw before the tournament begins is a fraught exercise. Very rarely does a draw play to form as upsets and injuries can disrupt the seemingly logical progression of the 128-player field. And how a player is performing heading into the event is often a better indicator of their chances than their ranking or seeding would indicate. Further, no major is as difficult to forecast as the Australian Open, which is already under way in Melbourne; being that it’s the first big tournament after the sport’s “off-season” (if one can call six weeks a legitimate off-season), it’s very tough to gauge the level of the top players.

Having said that, things do look promising for the top American man and woman at the Australian Open, as Taylor Fritz and Coco Gauff are playing stellar tennis. The duo teamed up to lead the United States to victory in the United Cup team event this past week in Brisbane and are looking in top form. This also marks the first time in nearly 20 years (2006) that both an American man (Fritz, No 4) and woman (Gauff, No 3) are seeded in the top four of a major.

But the level of expectations is entirely different for Gauff and Fritz. The 2023 US Open champion Gauff is one of the leading favorites to win the title, behind two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka. Whereas Fritz, even with a career-high seeding, is a decidedly second-tier choice to triumph as the increasingly impenetrable wall of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz shows no signs of yielding.

Players will almost always say they never look at draws and only take one match at a time. And that’s for the most part true. But one has to believe that Fritz, excited at being such a high seed for the first time in a major, had to have been hoping that his potential semi-final opponent would be Alexander Zverev, the second seed.

And no disrespect meant to Zverev, whom every follower of the sport acknowledges as the best current player to never win a slam. But Fritz has a winning record against Zverev, having won seven of their 12 encounters, including their last four. If things move according to the numbers, Fritz would play Sinner in the semi-finals. Fritz, who put up a good fight but still lost decisively to the hard-hitting Italian in the final of the US Open four months ago, has only beaten Sinner once.

And, indeed, Fritz would be wise not to look too far ahead as his road to the semis is full of roadblocks. Looming as a possible third-round opponent is the 21-year-old Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Standing at 6ft 8in, Perricard is one of the few players who towers over the 6ft 5in Fritz. Though prone to inconsistency, Perricard possesses one of the most lethal serves in the sport and when he’s on his game he’s the classic example of a lower seed who no player wants to meet in the earlier rounds.

Things don’t get any easier if Fritz advances to the fourth round, where a possible matchup against his compatriot Ben Shelton awaits. Surprisingly, the two have only faced off once, two years ago in Indian Wells, a content Fritz won in three hard-fought sets. This would be a fascinating match-up between the present and future of men’s tennis in the US. Shelton had a somewhat sophomore slump in 2024 but with his all-court lefty game his potential is immense.

Fritz’s reward should he advance to the quarter-finals – a likely meeting with three-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev. One couldn’t have come up with a harder draw for Fritz. So maybe it’s best if the 27-year-old doesn’t look too far in advance since the road ahead looks to be eminently stressful.

As for Gauff, though there are a slew of former grand slam finalists in her section of the draw, and she’s set to meet Sabalenka in the semi-finals, her chances of going all the way are very strong.

Since her much-discussed break with coach Brad Gilbert after her disappointing US Open performance (losing to fellow American Emma Navarro, who is the eighth seed in Australia), Gauff’s record is an extraordinary 18-2 since the US Open. With new coach Matt Daly, Gauff has ironed out much of the issues with her forehand and serve and is playing a brand of highly confident tennis. Further, the fact that Gauff is one of the fastest players on tour and possesses a very strong mindset makes her somewhat upset-proof in the bigger events.

In the first few rounds Gauff will probably have to navigate through 2020 Australian Open champ and fellow American Sofia Kenin. But Kenin isn’t nearly the player she was five years ago. Also lurking in her quarter are Karolina Muchova, the all-court wonder who is the envy of tennis purists around the world; Leylah Fernandez, who reached the US Open final in 2021; former French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko, and finally, two-time Australian Open champion Naomi Osaka. None of them should present huge problems for Gauff (and in the case of Osaka, she is nursing a recent injury so it’s yet to be seen how her play will be affected).

Gauff’s good friend, former doubles partner and 2024 US Open finalist Jessica Pegula is slated to be her quarter-final foe. Pegula owns a 4-2 record against Gauff, with Gauff having won their most recent meeting at the WTA finals in easy fashion. While Pegula, when locked in, can hit pinpoint groundstrokes to all corners, Gauff’s athleticism should carry her through.

It’s the possible semi-final clash between Gauff and Sabalenka that is the most anticipated of the women’s draw. Gauff leads their rivalry 5-4 and most recently took out Sabalenka in the penultimate match of the WTA finals. Further, Gauff defeated Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open final. Having defeated Sabalenka in the finals of a major would have to be a confidence boost for Gauff were the two to meet up. Sabalenka has established herself as the favorite for the tournament, with her two consecutive victories in Melbourne. If she were to win three in a row it would be the first time since Martina Hingis accomplished that feat (1997-1999).

Speculation before a tournament is just that – a parlor game, an exercise in educated guessing. It’s likely that upsets will occur but for now it looks to be a tournament that is full of blockbuster matches when the tournament reaches the second week. The top tier of the rankings have calcified their hold on the sport for both the men and women, which is a good thing for tennis.