The 2025 Australian Open draw is out – and with it, some clear winners and losers.

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So who could make a surprising run at Melbourne Park and how did the Aussies fare?

Foxsports.com.au breaks down the winners and losers from the draw.

WINNERS

Nick Kyrgios… if he’s healthy

Realistically the biggest threat to Kyrgios’ chances of a strong return at the Australian Open is his own body.

Withdrawing from a Thursday night exhibition match due to an abdominal strain, there’s some doubt Kyrgios will even make it to Round 1, with the Canberran giving himself as much rest as possible.

If he does play, he’s almost certainly going to face Brit Jacob Fearnley on a packed John Cain Arena – aka Kyrgios’ court – and a win would earn him a match against either No.28 seed Sebastian Baez, or 2024 fourth-rounder Arthur Cazaux.

Kyrgios at his best should win both of those matches, and could book a date with No.2 seed Alex Zverev in the third round. That would be massive if we get there, and Kyrgios looked good on court in his Brisbane International loss to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

But it was his reaction afterwards, explaining how sore he felt, that was the real concern. And the idea of Kyrgios getting through multiple five-setters in a row, given his injury history, is optimistic at best.

Jannik Sinner

The defending champion was already the tournament favourite heading into the draw, and his chances only improved after it.

The main thing was avoiding Carlos Alcaraz, who always seemed to be in Sinner’s half last year, and Novak Djokovic, who he beat in the semi-finals here last year but is still dangerous. And both men were placed in the bottom half with No.2 seed Alex Zverev instead.

The toughest opponent Sinner can face in a quarter-final is No.8 Alex de Minaur – and look, we’re not gonna talk down an Aussie, but the Italian is 9-0 against him all-time. It’s a one-sided rivalry.

Then in the semi-final it’d either be No.4 Taylor Fritz, who it’s safe to say has a ranking which precedes his reputation, or No.5 Daniil Medvedev, a perennial Melbourne Park contender who hasn’t been in the greatest of form in recent months.

So Sinner’s draw looks comfortable late, but it also looks good early, with few dangerous floaters appearing in his path.

He opens against Nicolas Jarry, who was the world No.16 eight months ago but had an awful hard court swing after that, and gets either Taro Daniel or Aussie wildcard Tristan Schoolkate in the second round. Tick and tick.

Really it would be a big shock if anyone beats him before the quarter-finals – Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz and Flavio Cobolli are the seeds near him, while the unseeded Matteo Berrettini has made the semis here before and could be there in the fourth round, but it could have been a lot worse.

Back-to-back is well and truly alive.

Iga Swiatek

The world No.2 has been pretty much dominated everywhere except Australia over her stellar career, making it out of the fourth round just once.

Yes, she’s even better on clay, but she has a hard court slam on her resume – the 2022 US Open. There’s no reason why the Pole shouldn’t win one at Melbourne Park at some point.

This shapes as her best opportunity, avoiding almost every other big gun in the women’s draw until very deep in the tournament.

Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and reigning finalist Qinwen Zheng are all in the top half, with Zheng-Sabalenka a likely quarter-final and Gauff-Sabalenka the most likely semi. Throw in threats like the underseeded No.20 Karolina Muchova, teen sensation No.14 Mirra Andreeva, two-time champion Naomi Osaka and her kryptonite Jelena Ostapenko in that half, too.

The biggest threat in Swiatek’s bottom half is No.6 Elena Rybakina, who comes in under a cloud of controversy due to her coaching situation, and has been brilliant while healthy for a few years… but she hasn’t been fully healthy too often.

But before then, nobody should be able to stop her; the other top seed in her quarter is No.8 Emma Navarro, playing just her second Australian Open and in poor form since her run to the US Open semis.

Swiatek opens against veteran Katerina Siniakova. If she doesn’t win that, and go on to at least make the semi-finals, something has gone terribly wrong.

LOSERS

Alex de Minaur

Look, it could have been worse. But even with the protection of a top-eight seed, there are landmines throughout the Aussie’s draw as he bids to become the first local men’s quarter-finalist since Nick Kyrgios in 2015.

De Minaur opens against Dutchman Botic van de Zandschulp, who has some major hard–court scalps on his resume from 2024 – including being the last man to beat Rafael Nadal (at the Davis Cup), and knocking Carlos Alcaraz out of the US Open in straight sets.

The pair have met once at the 2022 Davis Cup, with de Minaur dropping the first set but winning in three.

This should be de Minaur’s biggest Test over the first three rounds though. The first seed he can face, No.31 Francisco Cerundolo, has never made it out of the third round at a hard-court slam and is much better on clay.

The fourth round is where the danger resumes, with de Minaur in line to face No.11 Stefanos Tsitsipas. Of the four options from the No.9-12 bracket of seeds this was the most dangerous, based on de Minaur’s 2-13 all-time record against the Greek.

Tsitsipas isn’t in great form, knocked out of the US Open in the first round by Thanasi Kokkinakis, and failing to make it past the quarter-finals of any tournament since the clay season. But it’s clear he enjoys the match-up against de Minaur, and we know he’ll have support in Melbourne at his adopted home slam.

Realistically de Minaur’s goal is just to make the quarter-finals, and if he gets there, he’s probably facing Jannik Sinner. And probably losing to the Italian for the 10th time in 10 attempts.

But making the last eight would still be a tick. Getting there is the hardest part.

Pretty much every other Aussie

The local men’s hopes – and there are a lot of them this year – wouldn’t be too upset.

Only two of the 11 who could’ve drawn a seeded opponent in Round 1 did, and most notably Thanasi Kokkinakis (vs Roman Safiullin) and Nick Kyrgios (vs Jacob Fearnley) are good chances to advance.

But any hopes for Alexei Popyrin or Jordan Thompson to make it out of the third round, which is where their seedings suggest they should end up, were close to dashed by the draw.

No.25 Popyrin is in line to face Daniil Medvedev in Round 3; No.27 Thompson is likely to face Carlos Alcaraz at that stage. Those are surely mountains too big to climb.

It’s the limited women’s hopes who really copped tough draws. Only one, Olivia Gadecki, made the main draw on merit with five wildcards handed out – including to very promising teens Maya Joint and Emerson Jones.

Jones, the junior world No.1, cops a horror start to her first Australian Open against former finalist and No.6 seed Elena Rybakina. Joint won’t be thrilled either, the American-turned-Aussie facing Buffalo Bills heiress and No.7 seed Jessica Pegula.

Realistically no local women were going to make deep run at Melbourne Park this year, but Jones and Joint had the young talent and form to surprise a few people. Safe to say either of them winning a match would be a real surprise now.

AUSSIE ROUND 1 OPPONENTS (Aussie listed first)

[WC] Tristan Schoolkate vs Taro Daniel (likely Jannik Sinner R2)

[WC] James McCabe vs Qualifier (likely Stefanos Tsitsipas R2)

No.8 Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp

No.25 Alexei Popyrin vs Corentin Moutet

Rinky Hijikata vs Qualifier (winner could face Popyrin)

[WC] Li Tu vs No.24 Jiri Lehecka

[WC] Omar Jasika vs Hugo Gaston

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Roman Safiullin

Aleks Vukic vs Damir Dzumhur

No.27 Jordan Thompson vs Qualifier

James Duckworth vs Dominic Stricker

Christopher O’Connell vs No.12 Tommy Paul

Adam Walton vs Quentin Halys

Nick Kyrgios vs Jacob Fearnley

[WC] Daria Saville vs Anna Blinkova

[WC] Ajla Tomljanovic vs Ashlyn Krueger

[WC] Talia Gibson vs Zeynep Sonmez

[WC] Maya Joint vs No.7 Jessica Pegula

[WC] Emerson Jones vs No.6 Elena Rybakina

Olivia Gadecki vs Veronika Kudermetova

The non-Sinner title contenders