It’s the tightest and hottest Pick 1 draft race in almost a decade.

But while uncertainty remains over which prospect Richmond will select with the first selection of next month’s draft, the class’ most prolific ball magnet – Oakleigh Chargers midfielder Jagga Smith – is the favourite among his peers.

While the No. 1 draft selection is just a number – punctuated by the fact Nick Daicos in 2023 polled a record 60 votes to claim the Rising Star award, nine months after he slipped to Pick 4 and arrived at Collingwood as a ready-made AFL player – there’s a level of prestige and pressure that comes with being the first draftee picked.

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Past No. 1 selections Luke Hodge, Brendon Goddard, Adam Cooney, Brett Deledio, Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs retired with stacked CVs that included at least 250 games, while Daicos and Sam Walsh are recent examples of top draftees that can have an immediate impact. Others like Cam Rayner, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Jason Horne-Francis took a bit longer to show their wares at AFL level.

Harley Reid – the overwhelming Pick 1 favourite last year – turned many heads in his first season at West Coast, as many predicted 12 months ago.

For many of Smith’s peers this year, he has all the trademarks to be an AFL star.

Club recruiters and draft pundits have studied the 2024 field over several years. But foxfooty.com.au asked 19 players in this year’s draft class which player they’d take at Pick 1.

Seven of them, including Peel Thunder star Bo Allan, said Smith.

“It’s pretty hard to overlook Jagga,” Allan told foxfooty.com.au.

“He’s just a ball-getter, uses it well, he’s so composed and he has so much time. He’s very slippery and moves well, I think.

“He just has a natural skillset and knowledge to be Pick 1 worthy.”

Smith, on paper, arguably had the most impressive and consistent year of any player in the open draft pool.

A 181cm midfielder with a sickeningly good work ethic and impressive inside-outside balance, Smith finished runner-up in the Larke Medal and was named captain of the All-Australian team after an outstanding national carnival for Vic Metro. He averaged more disposals (29.2), contested possessions (13.8) and clearances (6.8) than any other player.

That all came after some bonkers performances for the Chargers, accumulating 33, 33, 50 (yes 50) and 40 disposals across four consecutive matches.

Then when he returned to Coates Talent League level for the final stretch of his season, he kicked at least one goal and averaged 32.6 disposals across five consecutive games.

As Sandringham Dragons defender Luke Trainor said: “Even for people who don’t follow the draft, if they looked at his stats, their jaws would be dropping.”

Murray Bushrangers goalkicker Joe Berry, as well as Sandringham Dragons duo Harry Armstrong and Murphy Reid, all pointed to Smith’s insane workrate as his key trait.

“He’s just so hard-working and he’s got the runs on the board,” Reid told foxfooty.com.au.

“He’s probably the most hard-working trainer that I’ve trained with in my time. He’s put so much work in and would really deserve it.”

Top Suns academy prospect Leo Lombard said Smith was “such a difficult player to play on”, adding: “He’s so quick, you won’t catch him with ball in-hand.”

South Adelaide star Sid Draper said: “I think Jagga Smith has put in a mountain of work this year that just can’t go unrecognised – and I think that’s worthy of the No. 1 pick.”

As for which player Smith would select if he had Pick 1?

“I’d be taking Josh Smillie – because of what he could be,” Smith told foxfooty.com.au.

“A 194cm midfielder that doesn’t rely on size – those types don’t grow on trees. I think he could be anything in the AFL competition.

“I’ve known Josh since I was really young, we played against each other in Under 12s. I’ve seen him really develop and grow into a star player. He’s an amazing player.”

Smillie, who looms as a possible top-10 pick at next month’s draft after being in the Pick 1 conversation earlier in the year, was the only player surveyed who nominated himself.

“I’m just the perfect player to have at a club and that’s not just on the field but off the field as well,” Smillie told foxfooty.com.au.

“I feel like I’m a very caring person and just a perfect person to have at your club. Then what I bring to my football when playing, I’m a unique player. I can play anywhere, it’s a coach’s dream.

“I feel like I’ve still got so much improvement in my body and also my game as well.”

But Smillie also had support from star Essendon Next Generation Academy prospect Isaac Kako, who said he’d pick the Eastern Ranges on-baller first due to his potential in the AFL.

“I think he can be a real star of the game,” Kako told foxfooty.com.au.

“He’s a point of difference, he’s that big and he moves really well and has elite kicking for his size. I think he can definitely impact at the next level.”

The Tigers are strongly considering three players at Pick 1: Smith, GWV Rebels forward-midfielder Sam Lalor and Oakleigh Chargers midfielder Finn O’Sullivan. Big-bodied Dandenong Stingrays Harvey Langford is an outside chance, too.

Interestingly, no prospect surveyed at the draft combine nominated Lalor, despite rival clubs believing he’s the minor favourite to be taken by Richmond with the No. 1 pick, at this stage.

Lalor, rather, was one of four players to nominate O’Sullivan, declaring he had “the most upside” of any prospect.

“He’s a very good runner, aerially he is so good,” Lalor told foxfooty.com.au.

“He probably has the best step in the draft, every time he touches the ball, he just does something good.”

Both Jack and Matt Whitlock nominated O’Sullivan, too. Jack said O’Sullivan’s “talent is just through the roof”, while Matt said the Vic Country star was the best player he’d played with.

“He hasn’t had the year he’s wanted, but with his ability, I reckon in about four or five years’ time you’re looking at Finn O’Sullivan as the next (Marcus) Bontempelli,” Matt Whitlock told foxfooty.com.au. “He has that capability, that winning nature.

“In Under 16s champs when I first played with him, you just saw some things that you don’t see from many.”

Langford also picked O’Sullivan – “He does everything really well. His footy IQ is pretty amazing, his agility and step out of contest and he just knows where to be.” – but Langford had fans among his peers, too.

“I’m taking Harvey Langford,” Bendigo Pioneers gun Tobie Travaglia declared to foxfooty.com.au. “He’s just an all-round great player.

“I feel like he set the champs alight and was the best player by far. He has such great moments that makes you think ‘he’s going to be pretty good at AFL level’.

“Left-footer, I feel like he’s got some growing to do as well. He’s just an exciting player in the air as well for his size. He’s going to be a top player.”

Fellow Pioneer Jobe Shanahan added on Langford: “His left boot is unreal and then just how tall he is for a midfielder. When I played against him, he just found it so easily and used it so well and then obviously hit the scoreboard too, which helps a lot.”

Shanahan’s thoughts were echoed by Carlton father-son prospect Ben Camporeale, who said Langford was “a good size, a nice kick and hits the scoreboard” and a player who’d gone “from one strength to another” in 2024.

Camporeale’s brother, Lucas, however was one of two South Australian prospects to select fellow statesman Sid Draper, who’s expected – at this stage – to be taken in the top five on draft night.

“Spending a lot of time with him in the SA state stuff, his physical attributes, his speed – and he’s been able to do it at SANFL league level,” Camporeale told foxfooty.com.au.

Gun Sturt ruck Alex Dodson added on Draper: “That’s my guy. Back at the state program, he was captain, he was extremely hard-working and a great leader, but also a really good guy that gets around you and really good to talk to. He’s really professional and mature beyond his years.”

FINAL TALLY: WHICH PLAYER DRAFT PROSPECTS WOULD TAKE AT PICK 1 (of 19)

Jagga Smith: 7

Finn O’Sullivan: 4

Harvey Langford: 3

Josh Smillie: 3

Sid Draper: 2