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Every situation the Matildas can qualify in Paris

Every situation the Matildas can qualify in Paris

The desperate Matildas will have everything to play for against the United States on Wednesday, with a spot in the Olympic quarter finals still within their grasp.

After a horror start to the campaign against Germany, the Aussies managed to bounce back with a dramatic victory over Zambia, coming back from 5-2 down to win 6-5.

The side will now face a much tougher task in their final group stage clash, taking on an in-form American side who are yet to lose in Paris.

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Australian football great Mark Bosnich has urged the Matildas to leave nothing to chance against USA and attack the contest in its entirety.

Ellie Carpenter spurs her side on during the win over Zambia.  Getty

“I think the Matildas are a far better unit when they are on the front foot,” he said on Stan Sport’s Paris Preview.

“Don’t leave anything out and don’t be wondering in 10 years time, sitting back as you do when you retire and say ‘maybe we should have’. Don’t do that, just go for it.

“We saw that [against Zambia], when they were 5-2 down and everything seemed lost – they really went for it. They had a bit of luck … but it doesn’t matter, because you make your own luck the harder that you work.”

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A potential quarter-final spot will remain possible for the Aussies regardless of the result against USA, but winning will undoubtedly be the number-one priority.

Let’s take a look at all the permutations for the Matildas and their qualification hopes.

What happens if the Matildas win?

If they get the chocolates, the Matildas are guaranteed a spot in the quarter finals.

However, seeding for the knockouts will depend on goal difference and other results.

Matildas players prior to their group stage clash with Zambia.  Getty

If Germany were to defeat Zambia in the other game in Group B, three teams would finish on six points and Australia would have to defeat USA by two more goals than the margin that Germany defeat Zambia in order to finish second.

If the Matildas win by four goals, they could overtake USA in first spot.

At the very least, a win for Australia will secure qualification as the third-placed team.

What happens if the Matildas draw?

If the scores are level, the Matildas are still guaranteed a spot in the quarter finals.

If Germany win or draw against Zambia, Australia would finish third in Group B and qualify as the best third-placed team. If Zambia defeat Germany, Australia would finish second in the group, with the USA finishing in first place.

Good news, but definitely not the result Tony Gustavsson will be looking for.

Players from Team Australia (Matildas) show dejection after losing to Germany.

Mary Fowler and her teammates after the 3-0 loss against Germany.  Getty

What happens if the Matildas lose?

If they fall short against USA, the Matildas will need results to go their way to qualify.

The potential results that could help the Aussies would be:

  • if Canada and New Zealand lose their final games in Group A
  • if Canada defeat Colombia by three goals plus the margin of Australia’s defeat, and New Zealand lose or draw against France
  • if Spain defeat Brazil by a margin that is two goals plus the margin of Australia’s defeat and while Nigeria doesn’t win against Japan in Group C.

The most simple way for the Matildas to go through if they lost to USA would be if Canada fail to topple Colombia in their Group A clash.

Mark Bosnich will appear as a football expert on Stan Sport’s Olympics Daily and Paris Preview shows throughout the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.