Get ready for early morning golf! The PGA Tour is heading to Scotland for two weeks. First up is the Genesis Scottish Open, and while most of the United States witnessed record heat, the boys of summer are about to break out their sweaters in North Berwick, Scotland. Our host venue, The Renaissance Club, rests alongside the Firth of Forth, a fancy name for a body of water that will create havoc across the course when the wind (or weather) rolls in.

Aside from updating your favorite weather app, it’s time to check the Monday Odds Board. Rory McIlroy returns for the first time since his elite exit from the U.S. Open. About a month has passed, and you better believe there will be questions in Scotland. Not just about Pinehurst, but about his game with all of the time off. Will it be sharp enough to defend his title at +750? Will having to answer to the media after his fast exit post-U.S. Open be too much to handle? Chris Powers from Golf Digest seems to think so. I agree with him and lack to see the value in a 22-1 Tommy Fleetwood as well.

Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we’re fading for the 2024 John Deere Classic:

Tommy truthers will say he has two top 10s—a sixth- and a fourth-place finish in the past two years. My retort, Fleetwood has 32 top 10s on the PGA Tour! Maybe Tommy can win this week, but in a field this strong that number feels very low. Conversely, Aaron Rai has been playing excellent golf. Coming off four straight top 20s, Rai returns to the Renaissance Club where he won the Scottish Open in 2020. It was only a DP World Tour event then, but nonetheless he has a very positive course history.

One major reason for Rai’s resurgence has been his putting. Now working with PGA professional John Graham, Aaron gained nine strokes at the John Deere Classic on the greens. Combined with his excellent ball-striking, Aaron is now a much more complete player. I’m grabbing Aaron Rai today while he still sits above 50-1. Once the week settles in that number will drop based upon his recent form and course history.

Watch the weekly Odds Drop video for Golf Digest experts Chris Powers and Steve Hennessey’s best value picks. Steve and I had Davis Thompson this past weekend, and Powers has been picking plenty of “major” winners. Chris predicted Xander at Valhalla and Bryson at Pinehurst. Needless to say, the Monday Odds Drop crew is nearly as hot as the summer heat.

More from Golf Digest Ranking British Open picks 2024: The 13 best bets to win at Royal Troon

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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com