Melbourne has tightly held the rights to hosting the AFL Grand Final for almost every year since the code began.

But with the success of Sydney’s teams, and half of this year’s top eight being non-Victorian clubs, some, including the New South Wales premier, think there could be grounds for stealing the event from its ancestral home.

Premier Chris Minns threw his support behind the idea when asked on Thursday.

“Let’s do it, let’s take it off them,” Mr Minns said.

“See if we can do it this year, that’d be great.”

Does it matter who hosts?

The main argument raised when the event’s hosting rights are debated is that teams get a big boost when playing on their home turf.

It follows then that Melbourne teams have a guaranteed home ground advantage if they make the grand final, given the fact that they’re always hosted at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG).

The idea of a home ground advantage isn’t just a sporting superstition, it’s also backed by research.

A team from Monash University studied the phenomenon by looking at the National Basketball Association, or NBA, in the US during the pandemic.

They compared the chances of winning when playing in front of their own fans at their local stadium, with their chances at the same stadium without fans.

The researchers found having a crowd of die-hard supporters increases a team’s chance of winning by almost 16 per cent.

While the study looked at US data, the team said it was fair to speculate the same phenomenon was playing out in Australia.

“Given the immense popularity of elite sports in Australia and the similarities in sports fandom with the US, we speculate that future research would likely find a similar crowd effect in Australian elite sports leagues like the AFLM, AFLW, NRL, and NRLW,” lead author Josh Leota said.

Teams like playing on home turf

It’s something also front of mind for the Sydney Swans as they gear up for a tense qualifying final against cross-town rivals, the GWS Giants on Saturday.

Speaking after training, Swans midfielder James Rowbottom said playing the match at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) was definitely an advantage.

“It’s a massive difference,” he said.

“We love coming here to the SCG, and our fans this year have been incredible,” Rowbottom said.

Coach John Longmire agreed.

“To play on the SCG, and probably the only real advantage in finishing in the top two is you hit that home final and to be able to do that is a real privilege for our footy club,” Longmire said.

Is it realistic for Sydney to clinch the grand final hosting rights?

The short answer is no.

The only times the match hasn’t been held at the MCG were due to either World War II, the COVID-19 pandemic, or major renovations to the stadium in the 90s.

The biggest factor is that the league is under contract to play the game at the MCG until 2059, a deal that was extended due to the relocation of the event during the pandemic.

The other issue is capacity: the MCG can hold up to 100,000 people, while the biggest stadium in Sydney, Stadium Australia, can only fit around 80,000.

So despite the NSW premier’s competitive spirit, it’s unlikely we’ll see a grand final in Sydney, or anywhere outside of Melbourne, anytime soon.