Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide: SIMON O’DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a former Australian international cricketer.

I think we are going to see a genuinely-run Lexus Melbourne Cup this year with plenty of early pace.

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There are several horses who have drawn wider barriers that will want to be getting across and taking up prominent places in the field.

I expect good speed early in the race and that means the winner will need to show genuine staying ability.

If you’ve got a weakness in terms of stamina, this is the Melbourne Cup you are going to get found out in.

As was the case last year, champion Irish horseman Willie Mullins brings a couple of the leading chances in Vauban and Absurde.

But there is a Geelong Cup runner and a couple of roughies who I think can spring a surprise and be right in the finish.

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*All odds courtesy of TAB as of Sunday

1. VAUBAN (barrier 11)

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: William Buick

Career: 20: 8-5-2

Last 6: x24312

Win range: 2200m-3382m

Earnings: $2,460,513

Odds: $6 / $2.50

Simon O’Donnell says: Failed in last year’s Melbourne Cup. They’ve tinkered with his preparation this time in, I think it’s been a little tougher than last year, and he has done everything right leading in with consistent form right throughout the northern season. Comes back this year as a genuine chance and barrier 11 should give him a good feel of where he can slot in. He deserves to be in the top line of betting.

2. BUCKAROO (barrier 21)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Career: 22: 5-4-3

Last 6: x81122

Win range: 1600m-1800m

Earnings: $2,195,344

Odds: $6 / $2.50

Simon O’Donnell says: Caulfield Cup run was excellent. The question mark has always been will he stay two miles. On the Caulfield Cup experience you would say he has a very good chance of doing that. If he does he’s a genuine hope of winning the race. His form has been at a peak right through the season – but barrier 21 is not doing him any favours.

3. CIRCLE OF FIRE (barrier 24)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 13: 3-1-3

Last 6: 11×890

Win range: 1609m-3200m

Earnings: $1,729,794

Odds: $34 / $10

Simon O’Donnell says: The barrier is a real challenge from 24. The two miles suits, but the form leading in for Circle Of Fire has been below par for a horse that could be coming here with a genuine chance of winning the Melbourne Cup. A top-10 finish I think would be the best he can bring to the table.

4. WARP SPEED (barrier 3)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Noboru Takagi

Jockey: Akira Sugawara

Career: 23: 4-3-4

Last 6: 4325×0

Win range: 2400m-3000m

Earnings: $15,989

Odds: $26 / $8

Simon O’Donnell says: A Japanese representative which you can never underestimate. His form at home on hard tracks and over two mile is better than sound. He’s run a place over two miles at Group 1 level in Japan. His first run here in Australia very plain, but getting out in trip and now understanding further the quirks of Australian racing could see him show his best form for a top-five finish.

5. KOVALICA (barrier 17)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 24: 6-2-4

Last 6: 5×3426

Win range: 1600m-2400m

Earnings: $3,155,000

Odds: $21 / $6

Simon O’Donnell says: We hope getting out in trip is going to be in his favour. His preparation has been OK so far without being stunning, albeit going back to his last start in the Cox Plate they chose to run in that race other than a Moonee Valley Cup, which indicates that he’s now very fit and ready to run the two miles. The Chris Waller polish is always a plus.

6. SHARP ‘N’ SMART (barrier 15)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Team Rogerson

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 22: 6-5-2

Last 6: 9×0203

Win range: 1400m-2400m

Earnings: $2,948,184

Odds: $71 / $18

Simon O’Donnell says: He has mixed his form this time in, but his third in the Moonee Valley Cup last start was the best sign so far this preparation that he is hitting his best. I think he can peak on the day, but whether he has the class to win the race is questionable. A top-10 finish wouldn’t surprise.

7. JUST FINE (barrier 13)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 25: 7-1-2

Last 6: x05010

Win range: 1600m-2520m

Earnings: $1,057,055

Odds: $34 / $10

Simon O’Donnell says: Very difficult to read the form. It’s been ordinary, then pops up and wins the Bart Cummings at Flemington to get into this race, then what you could only say is a horrible flop at Moonee Valley last start. There is no high recommend coming into the race. She is out of a wonderful stable, will be genuinely fit, but coming off exposed form last start is worrying me that he’s just making up the numbers.

8. LAND LEGEND (barrier 18)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Zac Purton

Career: 13: 3-2-1

Last 6: 1×0613

Win range: 2050m-2600m

Earnings: $1,116,807

Odds: $18 / $6

Simon O’Donnell says: Big track and 3200m should suit this horse. He’s one of the genuine chances. His run in the Caulfield Cup behind Duke De Sessa was sound, and his whole preparation has been sound with a win in the Metrop two starts back. Has to be considered one of the genuine chances on staying form against many of his rivals on Tuesday.

9. ABSURDE (barrier 7)

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 21: 6-6-2

Last 6: 041×41

Win range: 2000m-4023m

Earnings: $1,782,456

Odds: $10 / $3.50

Simon O’Donnell says: Acquitted himself very well last year in this race. I’m sure, as with Vauban, Mullins has tinkered with his preparation to have him even better prepared for this year’s Cup, and a top-five finish – or even taking the Cup home – would not surprise.

10. ATHABASCAN (barrier 2)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: J & T O’Shea & Charlton

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 29: 4-4-4

Last 6: 2×8001

Win range: 2000m-2600m

Earnings: $1,260,023

Odds: $41 / $11

Simon O’Donnell says: Form was ordinary until a win in the St Leger last time in Sydney. Each time he’s stepped up to the main level he seems to have fallen short. If he brings his best to the table he’s a genuine top-10 chance. Whether he has the ability to finish in the top spot is a question mark.

11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE (barrier 6)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: J & S Symons & Laxon

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 22: 5-3-2

Last 6: 349005

Win range: 1600m-2000m

Earnings: $632,400

Odds: $101 / $22

Simon O’Donnell says: Just isn’t going well enough. Was a pass mark in the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday. I’m not sure after being beaten so far in that race it gives any indication that it can have a say in the finish of this year’s Melbourne Cup.

12. OKITA SOUSHI (barrier 10)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Career: 18: 5-3-3

Last 6: 0x8021

Win range: 2149m-3219m

Earnings: $985,105

Odds: $21 / $6

Simon O’Donnell says: Last start winner of the Moonee Valley Cup. Seems to be a horse hitting its straps at the right time, after a slow start to its preparation the last two runs have been more than sound – at Caulfield over a mile and a half, and then winning the Moonee Valley Cup. From the Ciaron Maher and drawn well, rider in form, one of the genuine top-five chances.

13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (barrier 12)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 37: 5-11-5

Last 6: 821741

Win range: 2050m-3319m

Earnings: $1,133,261

Odds: $8.50 / $3.20

Simon O’Donnell says: Really caught the eye at Geelong with a stunning victory last start, which I thought brought back memories of the great Dermott Weld stayer Media Puzzle winning the Caulfield Cup in 2002. Has had a minor setback in the last couple of days but according to vets is all OK, and if he enters the race 100 per cent fit he is a genuine winning chance.

14. ZARDOZI (barrier4 )

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: James Cummings

Jockey: Andrew Atzeni

Career: 19: 6-3-1

Last 6: 665245

Win range: 1200m-2500m

Earnings: $1,793,300

Odds: $16 / $5

Simon O’Donnell says: A mare that’s just quietly built up to being ready to run the two miles. Ran on Saturday and acquitted herself very well in the Empire Rose. James Cummings using his grandfather’s methods of running on the Saturday before the Melbourne Cup. I would say could not be prepared better, form has been honest, genuine top-five chance.

15. SEA KING (barrier 1)

Weight: 50.5kg

Trainer: Harry Eustace

Jockey: Hollie Doyle

Career: 19: 6-1-2

Last 6: 101361

Win range: 2050m-2615m

Earnings: $643,449

Odds: $10 / $3.50

Simon O’Donnell says: The winner of the Bendigo Cup in really stylish fashion. I’m not sure how to read that form – he seemed to travel wide and strong the whole journey but still had lots left. Not sure whether that’s going to flatten him, or just take that bit of edge off him that will give him a better opportunity to run the 3200m. Was a stunning win last Wednesday, but I need the horse to settle to give him his best chance over 3200m. Unfortunately we’re not going to know that until they jump out of the gates.

16. VALIANT KING (barrier 22)

Weight: 50.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Career: 11: 1-3-1

Last 6: 56×009

Win range: 2012m

Earnings: $365,108

Odds: $71 / $18

Simon O’Donnell says: Just hasn’t hit form this preparation at any stage. Has been well beaten each time it’s gone around, and it would be a massive form reversal to be prominent here.

17. FANCY MAN (barrier 19)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Annabel & Rob Neasham & Archibald

Jockey: Ron Stewart

Career: 27: 5-4-5

Last 6: 10×536

Win range: 1442m-2414m

Earnings: $296,887

Odds: $81 / $20

Simon O’Donnell says: Question mark here is the ability to run a strong two miles. The son of Pride Of Dubai, which indicates the trip should be too long, albeit has won up to 2400m. Was a pass mark in the Caulfield Cup, being beaten just under 10 lengths, but I’m not sure whether another 800m is going to be suitable in the Melbourne Cup.

18. INTERPRETATION (barrier 14)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Teodore Nugent

Career: 23: 4-2-2

Last 6: 000862

Win range: 2012m-2816m

Earnings: $957,787

Odds: $17 / $5

Simon O’Donnell says: A sound effort in the Geelong Cup last start behind Onesmoothoperator. You get the sense that the horse is just coming into form at the right time. It’s last two runs have been more than acceptable, and from the Ciaron Maher camp with a suitable barrier, a top-10 finish would not surprise.

19. MANZOICE (barrier 8)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 21: 2-4-1

Last 6: 0x2307

Win range: 1300m-2500m

Earnings: $1,461,725

Odds: $61 / $16

Simon O’Donnell says: A former VRC Derby winner I thought was going to be a genuine class stayer of the future, but has failed to live up to that reputation. Sound start to his campaign this time in but his last two efforts have only been fair. I think he will stay the journey, and a top-10 finish would be his best result.

20. MOSTLY CLOUDY (barrier 16)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: T & N Busuttin & Young

Jockey: Karis Teetan

Career: 28: 6-4-4

Last 6: 622440

Win range: 2500m-3318m

Earnings: $523,360

Odds: $101 / $22

Simon O’Donnell says: Recent form just hasn’t stacked up to what you need to bring to the table to win a Melbourne Cup. Very hard to recommend.

21. POSITIVITY (barrier 20)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Andrew Forsman

Jockey: Winona Costin

Career: 12: 4-2-0

Last 6: 1×2178

Win range: 1600m-2500m

Earnings: $477,995

Odds: $101 / $22

Simon O’Donnell says: Really good start to this preparation but has fallen away a little in recent times. The run in the Moonee Valley Cup was genuinely disappointing, being beaten by over five lengths. Would have expected a bolder showing than that to have a genuine winning chance on Tuesday.

22. SAINT GEORGE (barrier 9)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Tyler Schiller

Career: 10: 2-1

Last 6: 3×8495

Win range: 2234m-2916m

Earnings: $397,627

Odds: $31 / $9

Simon O’Donnell says: Really caught my eye three starts back when it was resuming at Caulfield. Finished eighth, was beaten by nine lengths, but showed what ability it had over an unsuitable trip of 1700m. His build-up since then has been sound for a horse that had a long time off the scene, and a genuine roughie that could figure in the placings.

23. THE MAP (barrier 23)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: D & O Clarken Macgillivray

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 32: 9-3-3

Last 6: 1×9056

Win range: 1400m-2800m

Earnings: $865,175

Odds: $41 / $11

Simon O’Donnell says: Won his way through exemption into the ballot earlier in the year. Form has been sound leading in with a super run two starts back at Caulfield and then a solid outing in the Geelong Cup. Gives the impression it will stay the trip. A genuine top-10 chance.

24. TRUST IN YOU (barrier 5)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: B & G Wallace & Cooksley

Jockey: Mark Du Plessis

Career: 30: 4-5-1

Last 6: x63044

Win range: 1600m-2400m

Earnings: $340,133

Odds: $101 / $22

Simon O’Donnell says: Sorry, I have zero trust. I don’t think he has the class to figure prominently here. A top-10 finish would be as good as it could get in this year’s Cup.

SIMON O’DONNELL’S TOP FIVE

Onesmoothoperator, Vauban, Zardozi, Saint George, Absurde