UFC superstar Israel Adesanya is being heavily backed to suffer his second straight title loss in Sunday’s UFC 305 blockbuster – despite a host of Australian fighters tipping him to reclaim his place atop the middleweight division.
Fox Sports Australia can reveal a heavy move in betting over the past 24 hours now sees almost 70 per cent of the TAB head-to-head pool being wagered on reigning champ Dricus du Plessis.
There is also more money coming on DDP to win by decision than there is for Adesanya to win via knockout, which is paying $4.
While the New Zealander has been the betting favourite for much of fight week, by Friday morning bookmakers had wound the challenger out slightly — with both men now paying $1.90 to win.
UFC 305 LIVE FROM PERTH: DU PLESSIS VS ADESANYA | SUN 18 AUG 12PM AEST | Order Now with Main Event on Kayo Sports. Main Event on Kayo Sports and Foxtel is the exclusive home of UFC Pay-Per-View.
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The surprise result comes as a host of Australia’s best fighters are still backing Adesanya to reclaim his crown – among them Alexander Volkanovski, Steve Erceg, Jack Jenkins, Junior Tafa, Tom Nolan and Casey O’Neill.
In fact, only Robert Whittaker is tipping du Plessis to defend his crown for the first time — and via decision — however admits to it being a “50/50 fight”.
Yet overnight there have been several solid bets come in for DDP, including $2000 at $1.95 and several outlays of $1000 at both $1.95 and even money.
Meanwhile, UFC flyweight Erceg is tipping Adesanya to win via knockout and stresses you can ignore recent form involving the two headliners as “MMA math rarely works”.
Only three months after being narrowly beat for the UFC flyweight title, Erceg returns to the cage against New Zealand’s Kai Kara-France.
A Perth native, Erceg told Fox Sports Australia that, rather than entering the fighter hotel this week, he has decided to stay at home – and will simply drive himself to the RAC Arena on Sunday.
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Asked for a prediction in the main event, he said: “I think Adesanya wins.
“He’s going to touch Dricus too often and eventually knock him out, walk him onto a shot.”
For those betting on an Adesanya KO, round two is the most favoured option.
Erceg went on to say that punters should not take too much from the fact that Adesanya lost the UFC world title in a shock upset against Sea Strickland – who then had the title taken from him via DDP.
Adesanya has since hinted that he carried an injury into the Strickland loss at UFC 293 in Sydney last September – while he had also been on an incredible run of championship blockbusters.
“And MMA math rarely works out,” Erceg said.
“Yes, you can use it as a rough guide.
“But staying on top for as long as Adesanya did, taking so many big fights, there has got to be a toll that comes with that.
“Not only on your body, but mentally.
“And in the Strickland fight, he just didn’t look like himself.
“Didn’t look like the same guy who had beaten Kelvin Gastelum, Alex Pereira and so many others.
“So I think the time off is going to be really good for him.
“I see him coming out this Sunday and making a statement.”
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Elsewhere, Aussie featherweight Jack Jenkins suggested Adesanya is carrying “a different energy” to what he had during his fight week in Sydney prior to the Strickland loss.
“There’s something about him that is electric,” the Aussie said.
Meanwhile, Erceg revealed that he will sleep in his own bed the night before fighting Kara-France, a bout that will put the winner right into title contention.
“I might come into the fighter hotel for the weight cut,” Erceg said this week, “but otherwise I’ll be at home.
“I just like my own bed,” he laughs.
“I’m staying at home because my bed, my coffee, my dog, everything is all here.
“So why would I change that?”
Asked if it still felt like a UFC fight week when he wakes up Sunday morning, he grinned: “There’s a guy coming into that Octagon to hurt me.
“And I know if I don’t take things really seriously, I will be hurt.
“So that hardens your mind.”