Two subcontinent Test series get underway this week with massive potential ramifications for the race to next year’s World Test Championship at Lord’s as two underdogs try to pull off a miracle.

Bangladesh faces the might of India away from home in a two-Test series starting on Thursday, but the Tigers are daring to dream after putting themselves in contention to play at Lord’s by spoiling Jason Gillespie’s maiden series as Pakistan Test coach with a 2-0 away win.

Sri Lanka also kept themselves in the hunt as they clinically defeated England by eight wickets in the final test of their three-match series earlier this month.

They now face New Zealand at home in a two-Test series that where the winner could knock the loser out of the race for Lords.

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India and Australia remain perched in the top two positions but with their blockbuster five-Test series on Australian soil still to be played a rematch of last year’s World Test Championship final — where centuries to Travis Head and Steve Smith helped confine India to a second straight defeat in the red ball showpiece — is no forgone conclusion.

The World Test Championship standings are all about win percentage, not total wins, so a team’s fortunes can swing quickly if they get on a roll.

India – 1st, 68.52%

India is in the box seat to make a third consecutive final and give themselves a shot at finally winning the one piece of ICC silverware that has eluded them.

Captain Rohit Sharma and his predecessor Virat Kohli retired from international T20 cricket following their World Cup triumph in the Caribbean earlier this year and with the likes of star spinners Ravichandran Ashwin (37) and Ravindra Jadeja (35) appearing to be near the end of their Test careers – the Indians are putting all chips in on winning the mace.

India’s home-record is intimidating for any visiting side – they have not lost a series at home since England defeated them 2-1 in 2012 – but particularly so for Bangladesh and New Zealand who both travel to India in the coming months.

The Tigers have never defeated India in a Test match let alone on Indian soil, while New Zealand have not won a Test there since Sir Richard Hadlee took ten wickets for the match in Mumbai in 1988.

Rohit Sharma’s side are therefore heavy favourites to pick up five straight wins – two against Bangladesh and three against New Zealand – and almost certainly book their place at Lord’s ahead of venturing down under to try claim a third straight series victory in Australia.

The highly-anticipated five-match series is India’s last in this World Test Championship cycle.

Australia – 2nd, 62.50%

Australia will have to sit back and wait while their rivals face off in the coming weeks as Pat Cummins’ side do not return to the Test arena until the home series against India begins at Optus Stadium in Perth on November 22nd.

The Australians are desperate to gain revenge on India for the past two home defeats and reclaim the Border-Gavaskar trophy for the first time since the summer of 2014/15 when Nathan Lyon spun Australia to victory with seven fourth innings wickets in the first Test following Phillip Hughes’ passing and Steve Smith did his best Bradman impersonation scoring a century in every Test on his way to 769 runs for the series.

Australia will need to win as many as of the five Tests this summer as possible to feel comfortable for their chances of making the World Test Championship final because their credentials will be strongly tested by a two-Test series in Sri Lanka in February.

An innings defeat in the second Test of the one-all drawn series where both matches were played in Galle in 2022 left a sour taste in the Australians’ mouths and Sri Lanka has not been a happy hunting ground for the men in baggy greens as they have lost four of their last five Tests on the island.

A rejigged line-up for subcontinent conditions poses many questions such as are Todd Murphy and Matt Kuhnemann still Australia’s second and third choice spinners after they played in India last year? Does Glenn Maxwell get a recall for his ability to face spin and provide another spinning option?

Unless Australia can improve on their percentage with a series win against India, those calls by selectors George Bailey, Tony Dodemaide and Andrew McDonald may make or break their chances of going back-to-back in the World Test Championship.

New Zealand, 3rd – 50.00%

Trial by spin will determine the inaugural champions’ fate before they have a reunion with former captain Brendon McCullum and his Bazballers at home.

New Zealand were set to prepare themselves for a two-Test series in Sri Lanka and a three-Test series in India with a one-off Test against Afghanistan in the north of India – which was not part of the World Test Championship — but that was ruined by monsoon rains destroying the ground in the lead-up and not a ball was bowled.

Tim Southee’s side is a very flexible one however and as always will be up for the fight.

Spin bowling all-rounders Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell allow them to extend their batting line-up to support the likes of Kane Williamson and Devon Conway.

Left-arm orthodox spinner Ajaz Patel took all ten wickets an innings the last time the Black Caps were in India but runs will be the key to them keeping their Lords hopes alive.

Their subcontinent mission will focus on keeping their percentage intact to give themselves a chance to win a second title by defeating England at home.

Bangladesh – 4th, 45.83%

A month ago, Bangladesh was not in the conversation for the World Test Championship final, but the Tigers showed how quickly things can change in this race.

The side led by Najmul Hossain Shanto came back from the brink in both matches against Pakistan with a 196-run stand for the seventh wicket between Mushfiqur Rahim and Mehidy Hasan Miraz setting up a match-winning first innings total in the first Test before they recovered from being 6-26 in the first innings of the second test to win by six wickets.

They will carry that confidence forward into tackling India and dare to dream of gaining a first Test victory against their neighbours just as they did against Pakistan.

Awaiting them after India is a two-Test tour of the West Indies in November and December where the typically low and slow Caribbean pitches are expected to help their batters and spinners.

But an emerging crop of pace bowlers including Hasan Mahmud and Nahid Rana – who claimed five wickets and four wickets each when they bowled Pakistan out for 172 in the third innings of the second Test — appear to be the key pillars in the Tigers’ charge.

The team is also buoyed by the desire to proudly represent their people back home as the country has been swept up by political turmoil in recent months.

Sri Lanka – 5th, 42.86%

Mastering home conditions and picking up another upset away win or two is the likely path to Lords for Sri Lanka.

They face New Zealand at home for two Tests, they then head to South Africa for two Tests in November and December before welcoming Australia for two Tests in February.

The Lions will be quietly confident in their chances of a clean sweep in their run of home Tests as they provide New Zealand and Australia with a thorough examination on spinning pitches.

Captain Dhananjaya de Silva, Dimuth Karunaratne, Kusal Mendis and Vishwa Fernando meanwhile will be inspiring their teammates with stories of their 2-0 series win in South Africa in 2019 against a far stronger line-up than the current South African side.

In recent times, they have unearthed Pathum Nissanka as an effective, aggressive opening batter while pace bowler Asitha Fernando is putting together an excellent record with an average of 26.06 from 17 Tests and left arm orthodox spinner Prabath Jayasuriya already has seven five-wicket hauls in eight home Tests.

It all blends together for an exciting mix of youth and experience who have a great opportunity to make a charge towards Lord’s.

England – 6th, 42.19%

Ben Stokes’ side have seemed to show little care for the World Test Championship standings during the Bazball era, but they remain a chance of appearing at Lord’s with three-Test series in Pakistan and in New Zealand to finish off their campaign.

England have won eight of their 16 Tests during the two-year cycle, but their percentage has been hurt by penalties for slow over rates and playing like they were not too bothered by the result in the final Test of the recent series against Sri Lanka.

Nevertheless, Brendon McCullum’s team return to a happy hunting ground in Pakistan where they won 3-0 two years ago in a statement performance for their Bazball methodology away from home.

Pakistan would be unlikely to prepare such flat pitches once again but regardless of the conditions, they are a team down on form having lost Jason Gillespie’s first series in charge at home.

They then head to New Zealand where they drew 1-1 last year after the Black Caps won the second Test by one run when Neil Wagner had Jimmy Anderson caught behind down the leg side to take the final wicket after England earlier enforced the follow-on.

The return of Stokes and Crawley to the team from injury will take some of the batting pressure off Joe Root who was prolific in the English summer, but a run towards Lords may hinge on the ability of recent debutants like keeper-batter Jamie Smith and seamer Gus Atkinson to produce match-winning performances away from home.

South Africa – 7th, 38.89%

South Africa could go close to qualifying for Lord’s if they win their four remaining Tests of the cycle which are all at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

The South Africans have played six Tests so far in this cycle – the equal least to date alongside New Zealand and Bangladesh – for two wins, three losses and a draw so adding three or four more wins to that record would do wonders for their percentage.

They start heavy favourites at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan but their lack of Test cricket with a full-strength side – they defeated the West Indies 1-0 away in August but their series prior to that was in New Zealand with players not involved in the SAT20 — makes them unpredictable.

Their batting is largely unproven at Test level and fast bowler Anrich Nortje being unlikely to return from injury for the upcoming series are concerns but with quality quicks like Kagiso Rabada still in the line-up they can cause damage.

Pakistan – 8th, 19.05% and West Indies – 9th, 18.52%

For Pakistan and West Indies, the focus is more on salvaging pride in home series against England and Bangladesh respectively as they are out of the running for Lords.

After Pakistan tour South Africa, they face the West Indies at home in January for the unofficial World Test Championship wooden spoon.