Welcome to markets blog for the week.

The big-ticket item of the week on the markets will be the Fed’s May rates meeting with the statement and media conference available for dissection in wee hours of Thursday morning (AEST).

Probably not worth setting your alarm as it is highly unlikely the Fed will shift the current target range of 5.25-5.5 per cent.

Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say inflation is taking longer to come down than expected, but he has said that before, so another reason to sleep in. It is one for monetary policy diehards and insomniacs.

The US also publishes jobs data (Friday). Payroll numbers are expected to jump strongly, unemployment remain low – around 3.8 per cent – and wages edge up.

Australia’s data flow starts on Tuesday with March retail sales and a misty-eyed realisation the Taylor Swift caravan has moved on, taking with it the spending spree in retail and hospitality it generated in February.

Retail sales jumped 0.3 per cent in February as Swifties hoovered up merch, hung around cafes and restaurants and paid way above the odds for hotels and airfares.

March retail sales are expected to shrink back around 0.3 per cent, but all hope is not lost with 76-year-old Vincent Furnier (aka Alice Cooper) on tour again and doing his bit for the April data print. Fingers crossed.

As usual, the start of the month (Wednesday) will be celebrated with the release of the closely watched CoreLogic home price series. Pundits are tipping another 0.6 percent rise across the eight capital cities, with Perth in the penthouse, up around 2 per cent, while Melbourne home price moves are currently stumbling around in the basement.

The trade balance (Thursday) should see the monthly surplus heading back towards $10 billion, thanks to a fall in imports outweighing softer commodity export prices.

Building approvals are also out on Thursday, but they are so volatile it is not worth having a punt on the monthly figure, suffice to say they are sitting at around 10-year lows, so that’s the trend.