A really good piece of political analysis from Michelle Grattan today.

It neatly sums up the key battlegrounds for next year’s election.

While the economic situation is tough for the government, the opposition is also not without some vulnerabilities as the election campaign approaches.

It’s just one of those days on the ASX — most stocks are slightly on the nose.

Roughly three-quarters of the top 200 stocks are in the red, with all sectors in the red except utilities, real estate and education.

Iluka Resources is the biggest loser, despite news that it has secured a further $400 million loan commitment from the federal government for its planned rare earths refinery in Western Australia.

That’s on top of $1.25 billion in Future Made in Australia scheme Commonwealth loan funds already committed.

However, there are strings attached. The company has had to stump up a further $214 million of its own funding towards the refinery, on top of an initial $200 million investment.

The company and government have also established a joint $150 million cost overrun facility, which seems prudent for a project that is already forecast to cost a lot more than was originally budgeted.

Another big loser today is Star Entertainment, which continues its (not so) slow share price bleed.

Overall the benchmark ASX 200 index is down 0.5% to 8,429 points.

The Australian dollar is down slightly at 64.2 US cents, and Bitcoin continues to trade below $US100,000 having breached that barrier for the first time around this time yesterday.

The Reserve Bank board will be holding its final meeting for 2024 next Monday and Tuesday, and we’ll hear from governor Michele Bullock at a press conference after the interest rate decision is announced on Tuesday afternoon.

We’ll also hear from her deputy, Andrew Hauser, at an Australian Business Economists dinner on Wednesday evening.

Ahead of the meeting, the Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird has put out a preview.

CBA has consistently had a more “dovish” view than most other market economists, and the RBA, believing that the economy is very weak and rates should fall sooner rather than later.

Mr Aird thinks the RBA may come around to this view, but won’t yet be ready to flag such a shift after next week’s meeting.

“We think that the Statement accompanying the December on hold decision is likely to reiterate that ‘the Board is not ruling anything in or out’. Governor Bullock also struck this tone at her most recent speech on 28 November, albeit the speech preceded the Q3 24 national accounts,” Mr Aird writes.

“The November labour force survey is released on Thursday 12 December (i.e two days after the Board decision). If the data indicates the labour market has loosened over the month, as we anticipate, the RBA can use the December Board Minutes to provide a more dovish tilt in communication.

“The Q4 24 CPI (due 29 January) could be the ‘smoking gun’ that gives the green light for a February rate cut (February Board decision on 18/2).

“That is our expectation and we continue to hold our base case that the RBA will commence an easing cycle in February 2025.

“The risk clearly sits with a later start date. But here we note that money markets have moved over the past week more into alignment with our call (primarily off the back of the weak set of Q3 24 national accounts).

“As we go to press markets have ascribed a roughly even chance of a 25bp February rate cut. Last week markets had priced just a ~25% of a February rate cut.”

It must be noted that CBA has had to consistently pull back its rate cut expectations in the face of stubborn inflation and a surprisingly resilient labour market. It had been forecasting a rate cut before the end of this year until not that long ago.

The three other major banks don’t expect rates to fall until May.

The new ABS data today, on multiple job holders in September, show the number of multiple job holders has hit a record high.

In September 2024, there were 986,400 multiple job-holders, compared to 13.5 million single job-holders. That’s up from 959,500 multiple job-holders in June.

That means 6.6% of employed people have one or more jobs.

Between 1995 and 2019, the multiple job-holding rate remained between 5% and 6%. However, following a large decline at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in June 2020, the multiple job-holding rate rose and has remained at an all-time high between 6.5% and 6.7% since December 2022. 

In September 2024, the rate of multiple job-holding was higher for women (7.7% compared with 5.8% for men).

Employed people aged 20-24 were most likely to hold more than one job in September 2024 (8.7%). In contrast, 5% of employed people aged 65 years and over were multiple job-holders.

That’s a great question.

If you knew/believed/hoped that the currency was always going to be worth more tomorrow, why would you spend it today? You wouldn’t. You’d hold on to it, and you’d start thinking about how you might figure out how to sell it at some peak, and then buy more of it on some dip. And that risks getting you into the world of speculation and gambling.

How could you flip it, so it’s used as a currency? As a start, I guess it would have to start resembling a normal currency, where its value would be relatively stable over time.

But having said that, I can understand the motivation to get into something like Bitcoin (this is not investment advice!). When I look at how the value of Australia’s fiat currency has been obliterated when you try to buy a house with it, it’s depressing.

For example, in my grandpa’s day, it was just assumed that house prices would be something like 2x to 3x your household income. And why wouldn’t you assume that? As property prices increased,  wages increased in line with them, and there didn’t seem to be a problem. But now, with house prices being 8x, 9x, up to 14x household incomes, the value of the dollar has been obliterated when you try to buy a house with it.

So when you hear stories of people getting rich quick with crypto, those stories are obviously alluring. If crypto has the potential of helping you to do something in the material world (ie buy a house) that’s becoming increasingly difficult to do in the real world, with our fiat currency, why wouldn’t you think about jumping into it? I understand the reasoning.

In my previous post I mentioned how Warren Buffett has been a critic of crypto in the past. But he’s also said this: “I’m sympathetic to people that own it.”

But again, this isn’t investment advice. I don’t own any cryptocurrency, and never have.

We’re just having a chat (and killing time before the second test kicks off between Australia and India this afternoon, in Adelaide).

Hi Merrowyn,

There are plenty of reasons why people buy cryptocurrencies. And the deeper into the weeds you go, the more interesting the reasons become.

For example, there’s a big ideological element. People like the US billionaire Peter Thiel are very open about the fact that they want to destroy fiat currency, and crypto will help to do that.

Famously, in 2022, Thiel called Warren Buffett a “sociopathic grandpa” who was part of the “finance gerontocracy” because he was part of the group of influential people who was holding back crypto’s wider adoption.

It goes without saying that Thiel has been a huge investor in cryptocurrencies, and he’d benefit from their values increasing.

But as I said, that’s just one aspect of the whole thing. It’s just a fascinating one that often gets lost in the reporting.

In 20 mins or so, the ABS will release its latest data on “multiple job holders.”

It releases this data four times a year. Today’s release will be referencing the September quarter.

In preparation, here’s a quick reminder of what the ABS says it means (in its methodology) when it talks about multiple job holders:

Multiple job-holders are people who work in more than one job at the same time.

Multiple job-holders may have varying reasons for holding more than one job. In most cases, a person’s main job has a wages or hours constraint to it, which is why people look to work more jobs.

A “wages constraint” is where someone has a job that does not pay enough for them during the week. They may then choose to work in a second job to supplement their wages.

An “hours constraint” is where someone may work during the week, and have a second job on the weekends. This second job may have a higher wage but may not be available on a more frequent basis. An example of this is tutoring, working in elections, or refereeing sports games.

However, it should be noted that in some industries, a second job is used to expand job experience and portfolios. An example is the Health care and social assistance industry. Health care practitioners could work in their own private practice, as well as being a salaried hospital employee where they can gain experience or gain access to hospital facilities and equipment.

Here’s a quick overview of what’s moving on the ASX 200 so far:

Biggest percentage gains

• Lovisa (+4.1%)
• Paladin Energy (+3.4%)
• Lifestyle Communities (+2.6%)
• Goodman Group (+2.3%)
• Bellevue Gold (+2.3%)

Biggest percentage falls

• Iluka (-7.8%)
• Zip Co (-5.3%)
• Domino’s Pizza (-2.9%)
• Magellan (-2.7%)
• Resmed (-2.7%)

Overall 127 of the top 200 stocks are in the red at the moment.

• ASX 200: -0.3% to 8,452 points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: flat at 64.5 US cents
• S&P 500: -0.2% to 6,075 points
• FTSE: +0.2% to 8,349 points
• EuroStoxx 600: +0.4% to 519 points
• Spot gold: flat at $US2,633/ounce
• Brent crude: -0.2% to $US72.17/barrel
• Iron ore: -2.4% to $US102.90/tonne
• Bitcoin: -1.9% to $US97,181

Prices current around 10:20am AEDT

You ask Stephen, and your fellow readers deliver.

As always, nothing on this blog is financial advice, whether it comes from the ABC’s reporters, market analysts we quote or fellow readers.

It’s generally advisable to seek out independent, personal financial advice from an appropriately qualified professional before making major decisions, especially when there are tax implications/obligations.

The Australian share market has opened lower, with the ASX 200 currently down around 0.4 per cent.

The prospect of a weekly gain for the benchmark index hangs in the balance, with any further losses today likely to wipe out the handful of points added since last Friday’s close.

Here’s how the sectors are performing so far:

If one of the hallmarks of a currency is as a stable store of value, then cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin certainly don’t live up to their collective name.

Tony Sycamore from IG Markets shares his views on the recent price action since Bitcoin busted through the $US100,000 exchange rate yesterday afternoon (AEDT).

“After yesterday’s burst above $100k, there had been very little follow-through buying,” he notes.

“We also highlighted signs of exhaustion and bearish divergence, which are excellent indicators of a short-term high.

“Since our update on X, Bitcoin has plummeted to a low of $92,092, a drop of $11,555 from yesterday’s high of $103,647. It has since bounced back to around $97,071.

“This spike in volatility over the last 24 hours has the hallmarks of a classic blow-off top.

“While we don’t see this as the end of the Bitcoin bull run, it does signal we are entering a consolidation phase in the days/weeks ahead.”

It’s hard enough to predict the movement in the exchange rates for fiat currencies, where economic and financial fundamentals are a key driver, so Tony is a brave man for having a crack at guessing what Bitcoin might do next!

If you’re planning your summer holiday travel to see family interstate, the cost of flights is likely front of mind at the moment.

Flight Centre’s managing director and chief executive, Graham Turner, told The Business a lack of competition in the domestic aviation market is keep airfares high.

Watch the full interview with Alicia Barry here:

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An update from the Fair Work Commission hearing underway in Melbourne, on the Woolworths strike.

It kicked off this morning with some fiery submissions by the supermarket’s legal counsel.

We’ve so far heard the company is applying to the commission for a bargaining order in a hope to move along picket lines outside distribution hubs at the centre of the strike.

They’ve referred to these picket lines as “obstructive” and “capricious or unfair” and a “metaphorical gun”, that is having the effect of not allowing workers who may want to continue working onto site.

“It is an obvious pressure point for Woolworths who are struggling,” the legal counsel told the court.

Negotiations between the union and the supermarket to resolve the strike are continuing, as it enters its third week.

It’s six weeks to go before Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president, and major global investors are scrambling to prepare for his economic policies, including hefty tariffs, in what’s likely to be a new era of protectionism for the world’s biggest economy.

Senior business correspondent Peter Ryan speaks with Juan Delgado, co-chief executive Hamilton Lane — a private markets investment firm with around a trillion US dollars in assets under management.

You can listen here:

As we speak, Woolworths is appearing at a Fair Work hearing, attempting to move on the strike from outside its distribution hub in Dandenong.

The strike has now dragged into its third week and the supermarket says it’s costing it millions of dollars a day in lost sales.

The United Workers Union maintains the 1,500 workers want to strike until they get a fair deal on pay and conditions.

Our reporter Emilia Terzon is following the hearing and we’ll bring you the latest.

Jumping in with an update on the final numbers on Wall Street:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.6%
• S&P 500 -0.2%
• Nasdaq -0.2%

It may have been a down day but US stocks are still trading close to the record highs set this week.

It comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls report due out Friday (US time — so just after midnight AEDT), which will give further detail on the US jobs market.

“Already elevated consumer optimism towards the stock market has moved even higher since the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and the US election, partly on hopes of lower taxes, deregulation and strong corporate profits,” Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, wrote in a note.

“However, this support for stocks is offset by stretched valuations, excessively bullish sentiment, and the potential for the economy to cool in 2025.”

• ASX 200 futures: -0.2% to 8,469 points
• Australian dollar: +0.1% to 64.53US cents
• S&P 500: -0.2% to 6,075 points
• FTSE: +0.2% to 8,349 points
• EuroStoxx 600: +0.4% to 519 points
• Spot gold: flat at $US2,631/ounce
• Brent crude: -0.1% to $US72.21/barrel
• Iron ore: -2.4% to $US102.90/tonne
• Bitcoin: -0.1% to $US98,929

Prices current around 9:05am AEDT

Hi Stephen, great questions.

It may not shock you to learn that I have never owned any cryptocurrency, so I don’t personally know the answers to these questions.

However, I am putting them up because our highly intelligent audience may have some insights.