The race that stops a nation is the Melbourne Cup (3200m) and the 2024 edition at Flemington shapes up to be a very intriguing contest.

Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2024 Melbourne Cup.

Market 💰: View the Odds for the Melbourne Cup

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2024 Melbourne Cup Runner Preview:

1. Vauban: His 2024 staying form is elite, riddled with Kyprios, the best stayer in the world, so the form he brings is well and truly A1 for this. But, he had every chance in the race last year and I do have queries on him in a testing 3200m, which this will be. Keen to oppose.

2. Buckaroo: I have to respect Buckaroo. The Caulfield Cup is the traditional form reference and he was the clear eye catcher, closing off with real purpose when second to Duke De Sessa. The trip is the obvious query but if he runs it out fine, then he has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat given how well he’s going at present.

3. Circle Of Fire: Unbelievable Sydney Cup win when three wide no cover for the trip, so the 3200m is no issue. Wet tracks have plagued him this prep so firm ground here, he’s a big improver and overs I say.

4. Warp Speed: I think dismiss Warp Speed at your peril. He’s a top class Japanese stayer and I feel just forget his Caulfield Cup run. He was ridden like it was a barrier trial and was never a factor but his late splits weren’t too bad. Much better horse on firmer footing, bigger track and up in trip, with his Japanese form, I think he’s going to run a beauty.

5. Kovalica: He is a WFA horse, and that usually stands up when it comes to the Melbourne Cup. Waller horse in a Grand Final = respect.

6. Sharp N Smart: He kept finding the line and was good in defeat in the Moonee Valley. Gets good weight relief and is racing like 3200m suits. But, he is a very inconsistent horse who is hit and miss, even in the run. And has no turn of foot.

7. Just Fine: He led and was very weak late in the Moonee Valley Cup, looking a tired horse. Not troubling this.

8. Land Legend: Has a big engine under the hood and was one of the runs of the race in defeat in the Caulfield Cup. That said, Zac Purton had no control of him in the Caulfield Cup and if he does something similar here, he’s going to struggle to run 3200m.

9. Absurde: Like Vauban, he has gone back home and found good positive form, though this guy has done it over the jumps as well as the flat. But he had every chance in the race last year, and I am not sold on the rider booking.

10. Athabascan: SCR

11. Knight’s Choice: He’s a nice horse, but he’s not up to this level. He’ll struggle to beat a runner home, which is going to be said about a few down below.

12. Okita Soushi: He has found form at the right time and has that sense of timing for a leading stable, highlighted by a last start Moonee Valley Cup triumph. He has that sense of timing and the early market push is encouraging.

13. Onesmoothoperator: Hard to get away from his Geelong Cup triumph, which was similar to Media Puzzle, who won that and then the Melbourne Cup. But, he was injured during the week, which is far from ideal leading into the Grand Final and his overall UK form is suspect.

14. Zardozi: She loves Flemington and was quite good in defeat in the Caulfield Cup, which is the traditional lead up, plus was a real eye catcher in the Empire Rose on Saturday. Leading contender I say.

15. Sea King: It was hard not to be impressed by the win of Sea King in the Bendigo Cup. It wasn’t a deep field on paper but the manner in which he put them away, gave them a start and a beating, gee he was impressive. He has failed over longer trips in the UK previously but off the win at Bendigo, 3200m is okay and he’s well in at the weights.

16. Valiant King: He has done little/nothing since arriving from overseas and for mine, he is going to struggle at 3200m.

17. Fancy Man: I thought Fancy Man was the better runs of the race in the Caulfield Cup outside of Buckaroo. He hit the line well making ground late suggesting the rise in trip will suit him. His overseas form was more than good enough to win this race and a mixed bag of results in Australia means he will start at a massive price.

18. Interpretation: He hasn’t done much outside Geelong and how far back will he get in the run? He may spot them too much head start. Keen to risk.

19. Manzoice: He hasn’t won since the Derby in 2022 and his last couple of runs have been poor. Not looking like a coming Melbourne Cup winner.

20. Mostly Cloudy: He should have won the Brisbane Cup over two miles in the Winter and he has shown the quality to say he can run well in a race like this. Firm ground, does no work in the run, strong late…knockout hope.

21. Positivity: She has been legless after the Naturalism and she is the one that I think will run last. No chance.

22. Saint George: Has no turn of foot and may concede too much start, plus there is a query on his class.

23. The Map: Looked to have every chance in the Geelong Cup and was quite poor late in the piece. Not going well enough to win.

24. Trust In You: He’ll run the trip, but I think he’ll run it very slowly and is similar to Positivity. He’s going to struggle big time.

2024 Melbourne Cup Speed Map

I don’t see much front end pressure outside Just Fine. He is the lone leader in the field and should take it up. Outside him, perhaps Valiant King drawn wide can press forward? Hard to gauge early speed outside the GaiBott galloper.

2024 Melbourne Cup $100 Betting Strategy:

Going to have 4 x $5 Win/$20 Place bets Tote/SP

Circle Of Fire
Warp Speed
Zardozi
Mostly Cloudy

Group l Strategy Outlay: $2200
Group l Strategy Return: $865

2024 Melbourne Cup Odds:

1. Vauban (10)

J: William Buick

T: Willie Mullins

2. Buckaroo (20)

J: Joao Moreira

T: Chris Waller

3. Circle Of Fire (23)

J: Mark Zahra

T: Ciaron Maher

4. Warp Speed (2)

J: Akira Sugawara

T: N Takagi

5. Kovalica (16)

J: Damian Lane

T: Chris Waller

6. Sharp ‘N’ Smart (14)

J: Michael Dee

T: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson

7. Just Fine (12)

J: Jye McNeil

T: G Waterhouse & A Bott

8. Land Legend (17)

J: Zac Purton

T: Chris Waller

9. Absurde (6)

J: Kerrin McEvoy

T: Willie Mullins

10. Athabascan (2)

J: Zac Lloyd

T: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton

11. Knight’s Choice (5)

J: Robbie Dolan

T: J G Symons & S Laxon

12. Okita Soushi (9)

J: Jamie Kah

T: Ciaron Maher

13. Onesmoothoperator (11)

J: Craig Williams

T: Brian Ellison

14. Zardozi (3)

J: Andrea Atzeni

T: James Cummings

15. Sea King (1)

J: Hollie Doyle

T: Harry Eustace

16. Valiant King (21)

J: Craig Newitt

T: Chris Waller

17. Fancy Man (18)

J: Ron Stewart

T: Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald

18. Interpretation (13)

J: Teodore Nugent

T: Ciaron Maher

19. Manzoice (7)

J: Declan Bates

T: Chris Waller

20. Mostly Cloudy (15)

J: Karis Teetan

T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

21. Positivity (19)

J: Winona Costin

T: Andrew Forsman

22. Saint George (8)

J: Tyler Schiller

T: Ciaron Maher

23. The Map (22)

J: Rachel King

T: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray

24. Trust In You (4)

J: Mark Du Plessis

T: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley

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