The NFL Thanksgiving tripleheader features the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, two NFC Super Bowl contenders, a rising AFC playoff threat, and the potential for snowy weather. 

Oh, did we mention the Cowboys and Giants, too? 

The Detroit Lions face the Chicago Bears at 12:30 p.m. ET in the first game on CBS. Detroit (10-1) leads the NFC race. The Bears (4-7), led by rookie Caleb Williams, will look to avoid a third straight heart-breaking loss to an NFC North rival. 

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The New York Giants (2-9) face the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) at 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox in what will be a quarterback duel between Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock and Cooper Rush. Coaches Brian Daboll and Mike McCarthy are on the hot seat. Who wins this NFC East matchup? 

The Green Bay Packers (8-3) face the Miami Dolphins (5-6) at 8 p.m. on NBC. Snow is in the forecast at Lambeau Field in a matchup between quarterbacks Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa from the 2020 NFL Draft class. 

Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season: 

• Straight up: 123-56 (9-4 in Week 12)
• Against the spread: 104-69-6 (9-4 in Week 12) 

Here are our picks for the NFL Thanksgiving games: 

NFL picks, predictions for Thanksgiving 

• Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10.5) 

Thursday, 12:30 p.m., CBS

As if Dan Campbell needs more motivation, the Lions have lost seven straight Thanksgiving games, including three losses to the Bears. 

The Lions are double-digit favorites again, and they have scored 52 points the past two times they were favored by that many points. Ford Field is a decided home advantage, and Jared Goff has a 73.1-percent completion percentage with 10 TDs and three interceptions at home this season. The Bears allowed an average of 294 passing yards the past two weeks against the Packers and Vikings. 

Detroit will use that power running game to set up shots for Goff in the vertical passing attack. Chicago’s offense will be the challenge. Williams has a 66.3-percent completion percentage with 285.5 yards per game with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Detroit is more advanced and this easily could be a blowout, but we think the Bears hang around. Is that enough for a back-door cover? 

Detroit is too good for that, and Campbell will get his first Thanksgiving victory as the Lions’ coach. 

Pick: Lions 34, Bears 21

• New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4) 

Thursday, 4:30 p.m., Fox 

Is this the perfect time for a Thanksgiving nap? Dallas ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing offense, but Rush is coming off an effective performance in the 34-26 victory against Washington, posting a 75-percent completion percentage with 247 yards and two TDs. He targeted CeeDee Lamb 12 times, and that resulted in 10 catches for 67 yards. It’s not dynamic, but a similar game plan is coming against the New York secondary. 

Daniel Jones has been released. Giants coach Brian Daboll is on the hot seat. New York lost 30-7 to Tampa Bay in Week 13. Yeah, it’s that bad in the Big Apple. 

DeVito took four sacks and stuck with the short passing game in his first start of the season, and he targeted rookie Malik Nabers frequently. Nabers had six catches on nine targets for 64 yards. New York couldn’t run the ball either. 

When two teams struggle to run the ball, turnovers happen. Rush will make fewer mistakes than DeVito, who’s “questionable” with a forearm injury, or Lock. This feels like a Micah Parsons game. He had eight tackles and two sacks in Week 12, and fans will still be tuned in even if the game is ugly. New York is 0-5 ATS as an underdog of four points or less. 

Pick: Cowboys 20, Giants 14 

• Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3) 

Thursday, 8 p.m., NBC/Peacock 

The Dolphins are going to be a trendy upset pick, but that is going to require Tagovailoa beating the weather trend. Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games where the temperature is 40 degrees or less, 

The Dolphins are hot right now. Tagovailoa has eight TDs and one interception in his past three starts, and Green Bay might be without cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee) and possibly Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring). The Packers have six games where they have forced at least three turnovers. Tagovailoa will have to avoid that regardless of weather. The Dolphins have just four turnovers in five games since he returned from a concussion. 

Green Bay will look to establish a running game with Josh Jacobs against a Dolphins’ defense that has allowed less than 100 yards the past five weeks. Without it, the pressure will be on Jordan Love, who has 13 TDs and seven interceptions at home. It’s a close call, but Green Bay pulls through in the Frozen Tundra, which sets up a Week 14 matchup at Detroit. 

Pick: Packers 31, Dolphins 26