Novak Djokovic, the 10-time Australian Open champion, is set to face one of his toughest challenges yet as he aims for his 25th Grand Slam title in January. The Serbian last clinched the tournament in 2023, but with Jannik Sinner’s rise to the top and Carlos Alcaraz adding two more Grand Slams to his tally, Djokovic’s reign may be nearing its end.

The final ATP rankings for 2024, released on Monday, list Sinner as the undisputed world No. 1, with a lead of 3,915 points over his nearest rival, Alexander Zverev. The latter has climbed to No. 2 after reaching the semifinals of the ATP Finals, followed by Alcaraz at No. 3.

U.S. Open runnerup Taylor Fritz is fourth, trailed by Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud in fifth and sixth respectively. Djokovic has slipped to No. 7 – his lowest year-end rank since 2017 when he was 12th – and will consequently face a tougher battle in Melbourne.

His drop can be attributed to injuries that forced him to miss the ATP Finals in Turin, failing to win any Grand Slam in a calendar year for the first time since 2018, and not collecting any ranking points for his gold medal at the Paris Olympics.

With Alcaraz now ranked No. 3, it’s possible that he could end up on the same side of the draw as Sinner in the Australian Open. If he was ranked second, this wouldn’t have been a possibility.

In Grand Slam draws, the top two seeds are always placed on opposite sides of the draw before the rest of the players are randomly selected. This is done to increase the chances of the top two players meeting in the final, assuming they win their preceding matches.

For Djokovic, this means there’s an increased chance he might have to face either Alcaraz or Sinner before reaching the final, assuming he advances to the later stages. The idea of facing both Sinner and Alcaraz in the same tournament is worrisome, especially considering Djokovic’s recent record against them.

Alcaraz has defeated Djokovic in the last two Wimbledon finals, while Sinner has triumphed in their last three meetings in Shanghai this year, as well as the Australian Open and Davis Cup in 2023. We’ll find out more when the Australian Open main draw is announced the week before the event starts on January 6.