By Tara Diamond, Deputy Chief Executive, Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association (AREEA)

Recent modelling reveals Western Australia’s resources and energy sector will need a minimum of 11,000 new workers by 2030.

Right now, it can sometimes feel like the industry is trying to catch a break.

Rapid technological shifts, global supply, demand and price volatility and broad and impactful IR changes are among the challenges. But the echo of the past is a reminder that the sector is never static.

There’s always been a barrier to face and overcome and there’s always been the promise of a reward for overcoming it.

AREEA’s Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast 2024-2029 report, released in September 2024, reflects both sides of this story.

In the 12 months to May 2024, the national resources and energy workforce shed some 35,000 jobs. More than 20,000 of these losses happened in Western Australia – the powerhouse state of mining and energy investment.

Notably, capricious international prices for critical minerals and rare earths suspended work at key Western Australian nickel and lithium operations – which only a year earlier were riding high.

On the east coast, regulatory red tape, activism and lawfare have blocked major ventures such as the Regis Resources McPhillamys gold mine.

Notwithstanding these challenges, the pipeline of major projects remains strong.

Report overview

The Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast 2024-2029 breaks down the estimated labour required to operate new, expansion and restarted mining, oil and gas projects.

The report shows there are 107 major resources and energy projects in Australia’s investment pipeline – either already committed or considered advanced – expected to enter production between the second half of 2024 and end of 2029.

These projects are worth about $131 billion and are forecast to drive demand for around 26,810 new production-related jobs.

While estimates are slightly down on last year’s report covering 2023-2028 (103 projects worth $142 billion and 28,000 jobs), the consistency reported across AREEA’s past five editions demonstrates the ongoing attractiveness of Australia as a place for major resources project investment.

Mining commodities retaining their traditional strengths include coal (13 projects for 4,836 workers), iron ore (eight projects for 4,495 workers), gold (13 projects for 2,830 workers) and critical minerals (14 projects for 3,078 workers).

Meanwhile, the energy industry continues its mini-investment boom, with 19 prospective projects that could drive demand for 3,410 new operating phase employees by the end of 2029.

The world’s energy security will depend on gas continuing to play a crucial role in the global energy mix. That’s even as resources and energy businesses adapt and innovate, using advanced technology and upgrading skills to ensure productivity and job security across the industry are enhanced and strengthened. This is on top of developing those low-cost, lower carbon strategies and technologies that will keep the sector robust and profitable.

Western Australian strength    

Western Australia remains the epicentre of the resources and energy industry, with 48 projects in its investment pipeline forecast to create demand for 11,065 new workers.

That equates to 40 per cent of the national forecast workforce growth over the next five years.

Western Australia remains diverse and prosperous: of 37 mining projects, iron ore will spur demand for 2,095 workers, led by Southdown, Western Range and Lake Giles – all by the end of 2026. Seven gold projects, including Hemi gold and the KCGM mill expansion, should see nearly 1,700 new workers needed by the end of 2027.

While lithium potential (seven projects, 970 workers) has eased, it will, together with other critical minerals and rare earths (seven projects, 1,000 workers), continue to support a buoyant labour market.

Four copper projects – with West Musgrave the jewel in the crown – will require around 1,200 workers by the end of 2026.

A range of other minerals, including nickel, cobalt and alumina, make up eight projects requiring about 1,500 workers across the forecast period.

Skills shortages

While these projections are a wonderful sign for the industry after recent job losses it’s a matter of filling the positions – and the industry has struggled over the past few years with skills shortages in crucial occupations and roles.

Engineering and geology are two of the highest skills in demand, but geoscience graduates are in major decline and reports have projected an engineering skills crisis by 2040.

That said, the on-the-ground challenge of finding people seems to have tapered off slightly from two years ago.

A big part of the battle is the notion that mining is not going to be around forever. Nobody could dispute that the industry has changed from 20, or even five, years ago. However, strong growth clearly continues, with thousands of job opportunities. It’s just that many of the jobs are different and will be different – requiring high tech and other new skills.

A lot of effort needs to be dedicated towards attracting people into the sector, ensuring awareness of the great prospects of a long-term career. There’s no magic solution. It’s about pulling all the levers in a multifaceted approach.

That means a well-funded, coordinated and navigable education system so the VET sector and universities produce courses and learning outcomes aligned to what the industry needs.

Industry must also appeal to the next generation’s curiosity and forward-thinking by accentuating rapidly increasing automation, robotics and high-tech skills and roles.

The industry is changing, and the workforce conundrum is an evolving challenge, but one the industry is certainly up for.

Policy settings

AREEA has vocally opposed the Federal Government’s sweeping IR ‘reform’ agenda.

New union workplace rights, the ‘right to disconnect’, multi-employer bargaining, regulated labour hire arrangement orders and revised conditions around casual employment are already impacting the mining industry.

While AREEA shares the government’s vision for a “dynamic and inclusive labour market”, this can’t be delivered without a flexible workplace relations system that supports productivity growth and competitive businesses.

Budget windfalls in Western Australia, Queensland and the first two consecutive federal budget surpluses in 16 years were delivered on the back of record commodity export volumes and $74 billion in annual tax and royalties.

Excessive regulation, red tape and unnecessarily complex industrial relations transaction costs will only blunt this achievement and cost jobs.

A carefully balanced approach to regulation is imperative to fostering the investment and innovation the mining sector needs.

Bright Future STEM Program

Speaking of the future, AREEA’s Bright Future STEM Primary School Program keeps breaking records.

The overarching aim is to boost the pipeline of young Australians, particularly females, studying STEM ahead of launching those skills across myriad careers, including in the resources and energy industry.

All Bright Future STEM activities are hands-on, while industry role models inspire girls and boys with first-hand accounts of STEM-related opportunities.

Since 2019, the program has reached more than 31,000 Year 5 and 6 students – with 10,150 in 2024.

The 2024 program has:

• Visited 104 schools across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, Northern Territory and Tasmania
• Featured industry role models from 24 AREEA member companies, including Agnico Eagle, Aeris Resources, Aurelia Metals, Byrnecut, Eva Copper Mine, Evolution, ExxonMobil, Fortescue, Gold Fields, Henty Gold, Howden Australia, Incitec Pivot, INPEX, Monadelphous, New Hope Group, Newmont Australia, Northparkes, Pembroke Resources, Shell, Thiess, UGL, Ventia, VIVA Energy and WICET
• Designed and developed STEM activities featuring VR Headsets, Edison (Robots), Dr Eureka, Gravitrax, Snap Circuits and Turing Tumble

AREEA’s Workforce Forecast series has become an invaluable industry tool across labour market analysis, workforce planning and talent retention strategy.

The full 2024-2029 report is available at here.