The Kangaroos face the very real possibility of relegation from the Pacific Cup as they prepare to meet Tonga in the opening match of a tournament that Mal Meninga has declared is bigger than Origin.

Despite last year’s record 30-0 loss to the Kiwis in the Pacific Cup final, Meninga’s Australian team is still No.1 in the IRL World Rankings but the World Cup holders could be in for a dramatic fall from grace if they don’t rectify recent results.

For those assuming normal service will resume when new captain Isaah Yeo leads the Kangaroos on to Suncorp Stadium against Tonga on Friday night, consider this:

• Australia’s last Test against Tonga was a 16-12 defeat at Eden Park in 2019
• The Kangaroos last Test against the Kiwis was a 30-0 thrashing last November

Tongan coach Kristian Woolf said his current squad – led by Jason Taumalolo and Addin Fonua-Blake – was the best since the Pacific nation stunned Australia and Great Britain in 2019.

“Everything felt good when you came into that camp and they played that way,” Woolf said on Thursday.

“I’m not saying that this group are going to go out and do the same things, I’m not making any sort of statements, but this group has certainly got a similar feel.

“We’ve got the strongest side that we’ve probably put out there for a number of years.”

The Pacific Championships is the Pacific’s biggest sporting event and Meninga, who coached Queensland to seven consecutive State of Origin series wins, said the passion of the players to represent their nations rivalled Origin.

“The pinnacle of any game is to pull on your country’s jersey,” Meninga said.

“People assume that Origin is the benchmark for players, but anyone who loves their country aspires to go one step further than that.

“Representing your country is your greatest personal reward and it doesn’t get any bigger than pulling on a Kangaroos jersey.

“I want to prove that we’re still No.1 and that starts straight away with this upcoming Pacific Championships.”

More than pride at stake

A change to the format for the second year of the Pacific Championships ensures that every match counts, with the third placed team in the Cup playing off against the winner of the Bowl – Fiji, Papua New Guinea or Cook Islands – for a place in next year’s Pacific Cup.

Fiji host PNG at HFC Stadium in Suva on Saturday night with both teams eying a place in the promotion-relegation play-off at CommBank Stadium on November 10 against either Australia, New Zealand or Tonga.

The ramifications of this weekend’s men’s Pacific Cup and Bowl matches are:

Kangaroos win

• Tonga needs to beat the Kiwis in Week 3 to avoid the relegation match;
• Australia can secure a place in the final if they beat the Kiwis next week.

Tonga win

• Australia must beat the Kiwis to avoid the relegation match
• Tonga can secure a place in the final if they beat New Zealand 

Fiji win

• Fiji can secure a place in the final and chance at promotion if they beat Cook Islands next week
• The Kumuls must hope Cook Islands beat the Bati and then defeat the Aitu in Week 3

PNG win

• The Kumuls can secure a place in the final and shot at promotion if they beat Cook Islands in Week 3
• Fiji must defeat Cook Islands in Week 2 and hope the Aitu beat PNG or the Bati finish with a better for-and-against.

World Cup spot up for grabs

The women’s Pacific Championship has potentially even more at stake, with the Bowl doubling as a qualifying tournament for the 2026 World Cup.

Samoa play Tonga in a sudden-death match as part of a double-header with the Bati-Kumuls Test in Fiji on Saturday.

The winner advances to a play-off for the seventh berth at RLWC2026 against the victor of next weekend’s Fiji versus Cook Islands match at HFC Stadium.

The World Cup play-off in Auckland on November 3 will decide which team joins Australia, New Zealand, England, Papua New Guinea, France and Wales at RLWC2026, being hosted by the Australian Rugby League Commission in Australia and Papua New Guinea.

As the Jillaroos, Kiwi Ferns and Orchids have already qualified for RLWC2026 as semi-finalists at the last World Cup in 2022, they are contesting the Pacific Cup, with Australia out to avenge last year’s loss to New Zealand.

The winner of the World Cup play-off in Auckland also plays the third placed Pacific Cup team – the Jillaroos, Kiwi Ferns or Orchids – for a place in next year’s top tier.

The runner-up will have a second shot at making the World Cup via the 2025 World Series.

Ireland (Europe) and Nigeria (Africa) have already qualified for the World Series and they will be joined by a Pacific team and the winner of November’s Americas tournament between Canada, Jamaica and USA in Florida.

The ramifications of this weekend’s women’s Pacific Cup and Bowl matches are:

Jillaroos win

• PNG needs to beat NZ in week 3 to avoid the relegation play-off;
• Australia can secure a place in the final if they beat the Kiwi Ferns next week.

Orchids win

• Australia needs to beat New Zealand to avoid the relegation match;
• PNG can secure a place in the final if they beat NZ at home in Week 3.