Two flights of stairs up from the bowels of the rain-soaked Gabba where Pat Cummins was doing a post-Test radio interview on Wednesday afternoon, Ravichandran Ashwin flanked Rohit Sharma into the Gabba’s press conference room to announce his retirement. Cummins found out only moments before he put the headphones on. 

Nathan Lyon hours earlier had tipped Ashwin to play both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests after the two off-spinners had engaged in a lengthy chat on the field. One of Test cricket’s greatest ever bowlers blindsiding his opponents (and perhaps his own teammates) was in keeping with the frenetic pace of this series. Travis Head, standing metres away from Cummins after the Test, admitted his first-innings ton felt like it happened two weeks, not three days, ago.

If ever there was a time for Cummins to fall back on the calm demeanour that has defined his leadership, this might be it. Boxing Day shapes as the most consequential home Test of his tenure, rivalling defining overseas duels in Lahore (against Pakistan in 2022), in Delhi (against India last year), for the World Test Championship final in London (also against India), and in Headingley (against England during last year’s Ashes tour).

The loser in Melbourne will not only have a series victory pushed out of reach, but also severely dent their hopes of making next year’s WTC decider. A win for India in either game will ensure they will hold the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for a dozen straight years.

Fittingly, a match of this magnitude is also expected to draw a crowd that could nudge the Australian Test record of 91,112 (set on day one of the 2013 Boxing Day Ashes Test) or even the country’s overall cricket high watermark of 93,013 from the 2015 World Cup final.

Amid the chaos of this series, Australia are unfortunate not to be 2-1 up. Pat Cummins labelled the Gabba one of the most frustrating Tests he’s been in charge for. India’s celebration of their last-wicket pair passing the follow-on mark on day four in Brisbane irked some in his side’s ranks.

“After play we spoke about it and were surprised about some of their actions,” Lyon told Fox Cricket. “You see the reaction, it looked to me like their top order didn’t want to bat last night if we’d been able to get them (out) and enforce the follow-on.”

The extreme rhythm of this series is spelt out by the numbers as well. If all three Tests had gone five days and no play was lost to weather, 1,350 overs would have been bowled. In reality, we have seen only a little more than half that amount (682.1 overs). Another way of looking at it; Australia have bowled almost 130 fewer overs through three Tests than at the same point of India’s last tour here.

For an Australian team searching for stability, and which can recall the weariness that accompanied the tail-end of that 2020-21 series, it bodes well for the remaining members of the big three pace attack.

Cummins and Mitchell Starc must take on an outsized role in the absence of Josh Hazlewood if pitches continue to be as seam-friendly as they have been in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane. It was flagged before this series that last summer’s effort of the trio playing seven consecutive Tests in Australia and New Zealand might have been an aberration, especially with Cameron Green out for the summer.

But Cummins is how hopeful both he and Starc could play all five Tests.

“Nothing is for certain,” he told reporters on Thursday. “See how we pull up – but today we’re both fine so I can’t see that changing. It was hot yesterday but physically outside of that we’re good to go.

“We’d had about seven days or so off bowling after Adelaide so we were fresh and ready to go. If anything, the rain breaks (in Brisbane) actually helped us get a bit of a break.

“Went in thinking we’d need a lot more from (allrounder) Mitchy Marsh but it felt like we got enough breaks so he wasn’t needed as much.”

If Australia cannot beat India in both Melbourne and Sydney, they will need to win at least one Test on Galle’s turning tracks next month to keep their WTC title defence alive. It is believed Hazlewood could be back running early in the new year and be fit to return for that Sri Lanka tour.

But the possibility of Cummins (whose wife Becky is due to give birth around the time of late-January, early-February two-Test series) missing the bout along with the Green (who was integral to Australia winning a Test in Galle in 2022) means the less risky path to the WTC final involves not relying on favourable results on the subcontinent.

In a bowler-dominated series against India, Australia’s ability to eke out more runs than their opponents’ even more brittle top-order shapes as possibly the biggest single deciding factor for the final two Tests.

The hosts are collectively averaging 26.21 with the bat. Only twice in Test history have Australia won a home series with worse batting returns, both coming more than a century ago (in 1892 and 1901). India have fared little better in recent weeks, averaging 27.39, which puts this series on track to beat the 2021-22 Ashes as the lowest scoring campaign on Australian soil in three decades (minimum three-Test series). 

Australia’s selectors were meeting on Thursday to decide whether their top-order requires a rejig given the low returns. The home side have been reliant on the brilliance of Head to reach imposing first-innings scores over the past two Tests. Finding other contributors when the star left-hander does not fire will be a priority.

But the blueprint that has allowed Head to thrive in Adelaide and Brisbane, whereby a watchful top four attempts to blunt the new ball and tire out electric paceman Jasprit Bumrah, will not be abandoned.

“You always hope if (middle-order players) walk in at 35 overs, you’ve got more runs on the board,” said Cummins. “But the trend, it seems like, is 5, 6, 7 is where the bulk of the runs is scored all around the world.

“I spoke ahead of this summer when there was all this talk about batting orders – I didn’t really want to move our 5, 6, 7. They’ve been so important to so many of our wins over the last couple of years.

“We’re not beholden to stats. We know there are certain roles, there are easier times to bat, harder times to bat … You’re always looking at the best seven batters who you think are going to function as a unit and place them as best you can.”

NRMA Insurance Men’s Test Series v India

First Test: India won by 295 runs

Second Test: Australia won by 10 wickets

Third Test: Match drawn

Fourth Test: December 26-30: MCG, Melbourne, 10.30am AEDT

Fifth Test: January 3-7: SCG, Sydney, 10.30am AEDT

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Sean Abbott, Scott Boland, Alex Carey (wk), Brendan Doggett, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitch Marsh, Nathan McSweeney, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Beau Webster

India squad: Rohit Sharma (c), Jasprit Bumrah (vc), Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Abhimanyu Easwaran, Devdutt Padikkal, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant, Sarfaraz Khan, Dhruv Jurel, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep, Prasidh Krishna, Harshit Rana, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Washington Sundar. Reserves: Mukesh Kumar, Navdeep Saini, Khaleel Ahmed, Yash Dayal