The average winning score at TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children’s Open is 23 under par over the past five years. Those same five champions average 26 sub-par scores on their way to the winner’s circle. One tradition I like to start my golf betting week is checking the over/under on the winning score for the upcoming tournament. Imagine my surprise when I saw it was 15.5!

RELATED: Shriners Children’s Open odds 2024: Our PGA pro’s bold Tom Kim fade

We expect some weather this week in the Las Vegas desert. The Shriners takes place at TPC Summerlin on the northwest outskirts of Las Vegas. Exposed to the elements, it seems the forecast calls for strong winds on Thursday and Friday. A steady breeze in the 20-mph range with gusts well over that. The last time our winning score fell below 21 under par was seven years ago (2017) when Patrick Cantlay took home the trophy at nine under par in a playoff over Alex Čejka and Whee Kim.

Watch the below video with Read The Line and SportsGrid for PGA professional Keith Stewart’s full 2024 Shriners Children’s Open betting anaylsis:

Wind plagued that weekly forecast as well. Our field of 132 players can definitely go low this week and will make a ton of sub-par scores. The standard scoring blueprint at Summerlin starts with keeping it on the grass and out of the desert off the tee. The field will be attacking with a wedge (or scoring iron) in hand, creating plenty of birdie chances. The final key is using that putter. The past five winners have gained an average of seven strokes on the field with their flatstick. Model those skills out. and you’ll get a bunch of popular names as those skills apply every week in the FedEx Cup Fall series.

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Based upon the forecast, I’m taking a different approach for Shriners this week. Historically, strokes gained scrambling or around the green falls well below the other primary skills needed to score at Summerlin. I’m adding a couple players to my betting card based upon their recent form and acumen around the green. Most betters will miss this if they don’t check all of the details. In the Monday Odds Drop article, I highlighted Beau Hossler (30-1). A runner-up at the Sanderson and 11th place last week in Utah is great, but Hossler can really handle himself on and around the greens. In six starts at Summerlin, Beau has gained an average of three strokes ARG on the field.

Another strong scrambler is Harris English (45-1). In nine Summerlin starts, English gains an average of 1.5 strokes on the field with his short game. Harris finished sixth last week in Utah fueled by a fine flatstick (+5 strokes) and T2G (+4 strokes) game. One of the top short game players in the Shriners field, I’m adding English to my outright betting card. Other favorites such as Kurt Kitayama, Taylor Pendrith and Tom Kim rank in the bottom half of the field for their short game. Let’s steal a win this weekend with some savvy scoring from around the green in the windy conditions at TPC Summerlin.

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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.

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