We’d love to be celebrating a Week 1 cash right now on Collin Morikawa, who two of our experts were on at The Sentry. Unfortunately, Hideki Matsuyama had other plans.

With his dominant victory, Matsuyama has earned top favorite honors for the Sony Open, leg two of the Hawaii Swing at Waialae Country Club. Going back-to-back does not seem out of the question for the former Masters winner, as he’s had plenty of success in this event, including a win in 2022. Our experts are looking a bit farther down the board, though.

The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Albany Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.

Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Sony Open

Sony Open picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions 

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Corey Conners (16-1, BetMGM) — The Canadian hits his irons as well as anyone in the world, and with the rough up and being a little wetter than we expect at Waialae, we like his pinpoint accuracy and middle-iron prowess. Plus, he finishes first in putting in Maui. He’s too good not to have a victory outside of San Antonio—lifting a trophy at Waialae would make a lot of sense.

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Luke Clanton (40-1, BetMGM) — In case you’re not familiar, Clanton has been one of the best amateurs to play on tour this millennium. He’s notched four top 10s in eight PGA Tour starts and was T-2 last time out at the RSM. It’s time.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Russell Henley (20-1, FanDuel) — Henley’s accuracy and irons make him a standout play this week at Waialae, and his putting is pretty strong, too. Henley’s T-30 last week at The Sentry came with top 20 approach play and top five accuracy.

Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Maverick McNealy (28-1, BetMGM) — With his win at the RSM Classic, Maverick McNealy appears to have validated his hard work. Elite players need to experience a win, and then they are off to the races. McNealy put on a ball-striking display at The Sentry. That’s very interesting because Mav is known for his putting and short game. McNealy finished sixth in strokes-gained/tee-to-green at Kapalua. Watch him take that confidence to a course that really fits him – Waialae CC. I think the result will be very similar to his last full field coastal start on Sea Island.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Luke Clanton (40-1, BetMGM) — Clanton will no doubt be a popular pick, but at 40-1, I’m willing to buy in. He has top-fives at similar positional type tracks (Sedgefield and Sea Island), and his elite total driving should be a huge key. His putting has been so good, too—I can see him pulling off what Nick Dunlap did last year.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Keegan Bradley (30-1, Bet365) — If Keegan is going to make a serious bid at being a playing captain at the Ryder Cup, these early events in 2025 could prove critical. His year got off to a solid start at Kapalua, where he tied for 15th. Now he returns to Waialae for the Sony Open, where he finished second a year ago and has three other top 13 finishes in his career. Familiarity with this course and finding some form last week is a great combo for the seven-time tour winner.

Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Kurt Kitayama (40-1, FanDuel) — Kurt Kitayama is my official pick to win this week, and I have been completely enamored by his recent approach numbers. The former Arnold Palmer Invitational winner’s now gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in his last three starts to end the Fall swing, and the windier than normal conditions this year at Waialae should play even more into his skill set than in years past.

Past results: The panel had a total of 15 outright winners in 2024, besting our 2023 total of 13. We also had a strong season of matchups and our very own Stephen Hennessey absolutely cleaned up in the top 10 market. Let’s keep it rolling in ‘25.

Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts! 

Sony Open picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win 

Caddie: Sepp Straka (50-1, FanDuel) — How in the world is he this far down on the odds board? This is a great price on a proven winner.

Mayo: Eric Cole (100-1, Bet365) — No, Cole did not play particularly well at Kapalua. But did he play so poorly he’s now triple digits in some places when he likely would have been in the top 10 of favorites otherwise? No. No, he did not. Waialae is an Eric Cole course, and the Sony is an Eric Cole field. He’s simply underpriced based on his previous odds and success in tournaments like this.

Gdula: Sepp Straka (50-1, FanDuel) — Straka has the accuracy and irons to hit fairways and get birdie chances this week. He’s had some standout iron weeks at Waialae in the past yet hasn’t putted particularly great. That’s a fine recipe at longer odds.

Stewart: Tom Hoge (65-1, FanDuel) — What a tournament Tom Hoge had on the Plantation Course at Kapalua. He was the first-round leader and finished the week 23 under par. We all know Hideki went nuclear, but Hoge played great (well-rounded) golf. Tom’s approach game is top five on tour, but he also gained significantly around the green and with his putter. The best time to bet Tom Hoge is when that putter pops because his iron game is always on point.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (100-1, FanDuel) — I don’t get this price, but I’m willing to take it. Glover nearly won here in 2022, and he was playing great golf in the fall. Just gain a few strokes for us on the greens, Lucas, and we’ll be in contention yet again at Waialae.

Powers, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (60-1, FanDuel) — The fact he’s still 60-1 coming off a second-place finish, albeit a few months back, is so crazy that you must take it. With a player as proven as Berger is, all I need to see is one good week to buy back in. And the thing is, Berger two other solid weeks this past fall at the Sanderson Farms and the World Wide Technology. If he keeps it up, these odds are getting sliced in half come Florida Swing time. I would rather try to be early at 60-1 than late at 30-1.

Lack: Daniel Berger (60-1, FanDuel) — Daniel Berger is one of my favorite plays on the board this week, and I am bullish that he is in store for a big 2025. Berger has already recorded three top-15 finishes at Waialae prior to his injury, and he finished off his 2024 campaign with a runner-up at the RSM Classic where he gained strokes in all four major categories.

RELATED: Sony Open DFS picks 2025: Bet on golf’s next big talent

Sony Open picks 2025: Players We’re Fading 

Caddie: Byeong Hun An (22-1, BetMGM) — I love Ben An as a player, but this is a short price in a potentially wide open tournament. I would’ve liked to have seen a little more form last week.

Mayo: Hideki Matsuyama (+750, Caesars Sportsbook) — Of course Hideki should be favored, but churning out consecutive weeks with an elite putting effort is not something etched in the career achievements of last week’s winner. In his starts following a week where he gained two or more strokes putting, Hideki has failed to gain more than 1.5 in any event since the 2017 WGC Bridgestone (+3) then the 2017 PGA Championship (+4.5).

Gdula: Maverick McNealy (25-1, FanDuel) — McNealy’s irons really lag behind the other favorites, and it makes him hard to like even at a course with large greens with much better ball-strikers at similar prices.

Stewart: Tom Kim (18-1, BetMGM) — There’s no doubt Tom Kim is an incredible ball-striker and player. The two-time Presidents Cup team member can keep up with anyone on the PGA Tour. Waialae is a very predictive place and to date this venue has not cooperated with Kim. In one start at the Sony Open, Tom missed the cut. I believe a large part of that has to do with his putter on Bermudagrass. These grainy surfaces can give you fits and until Kim cures the putter, I’m going to skip him in Hawaii.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sahith Theegala (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I don’t love the fact Sahith struggled with his iron play all week long at Kapalua, losing strokes in all four rounds. It’s the type of course you’d think his creativity would shine. Waialae isn’t a great suit for him with two weak finishes here, likely due to being a bit caustrophobic off the tee for him.

Powers, Golf Digest: Tom Kim (18-1, BetMGM) — Just about everybody priced similarly played last week and played quite well. Kim was not at Kapalua and is coming off a quiet fall and end of the summer. I’ll pass at this number.

Lack: Robert MacIntyre (30-1, DraftKings) — Let’s hope for a better fade this week, as I certainly learned my lesson by stepping in front of Hideki Matsuyama last week. Robert MacIntyre has struggled in his only appearance at Waialae, and his long-term middle iron numbers leave a lot to be desired.

RELATED: The clubs Hideki Matsuyama used to win the 2025 Sentry

Sony Open picks 2025: Matchups 

Caddie: JT Poston (-120) over Kurt Kitayama (Bet365) — When in doubt at Waialae, side with great putters, and that’s exactly what Poston brings to the table. Plus, Kitayama’s weakness is his inaccuracy off the tee, which can hurt you here.

Mayo: Russell Henley (+100) over Tom Kim (Coolbet) — No player has more total strokes-gained over the past five years at the Sony Open than Henley. And he’s finished worse than T-11 just once in his past four tries. This is Kim’s season debut having failed to qualify for The Sentry and he has enough of a spastic putter to sink him quickly in an event like this. In fact, that’s exactly what happened to Kim two years when he went off as the betting favorite in this tournament. Then proceeded to lose 6.7 strokes with his putter in two rounds and took the early flight back to the mainland.

Gdula: Harris English (-110) over Thomas Detry (FanDuel) — While neither golfer here has great irons of late, English has an accuracy and putting edge over Detry. English has a lengthy history at Waialae, and Detry hasn’t played here yet.

Stewart: Austin Eckroat (-110) over Sahith Theegala (Bet365) — Sahith Theegala didn’t gain on approach, around the green, or putting last week at The Sentry. Players can have a bad week, but Theegala finished runner up at Kapalua a year ago. Sahith should have confidence on that course. Austin Eckroat won twice in 2024. Eckroat is an elite ball-striker and perfect fit for Waialae’s close corridors. Austin will keep the ball in play and continue his hot putting from The Sentry to take home this tournament head-to-head.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Austin Eckroat (-120) over Sahith Theegala (Bet365) — Eckroat has two decent finishes at Waialae, much stronger than Theegala’s MC and T-48. Eckroat’s been more consistent over the past five events, which is the recipe for a winning matchup.

Powers, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (+100) over Tom Kim (Bet365) — Fading Tom Kim so it makes sense to go at him here with Henley, who has gone 4th-32nd-2nd-11th in his last four Sony appearances.

Lack: Byeong Hun An (-105) over Robert MacIntyre (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as Byeong Hun An is one of my favorite plays to win and Robert MacIntyre is my fade of the week. An lost in a playoff at this event last year, and he has only improved as a golfer since his last visit to Waialae, particularly on the greens.

Matchup Results from The Sentry: Powers: 1 for 1 (Im (+100) over Aberg); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Scott (-135) over Day); Caddie: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 1-0-0 (Up 1 unit); Hennessey: 1-0-0 (up 0.74 units); Caddie: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit); Mayo: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit); Gdula: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit); Stewart: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit); Lack: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit)

Sony Open picks 2025: Top 10s 

Caddie: Tom Kim (+200, DraftKings) — Tom has played very well over his last 10 events. A near medal in France and 3 runner ups shows he’s ready to have a much better 2025.

Mayo: Keegan Bradley (+333, Bet365) — Out to avenge his playoff loss from a year ago, Keegan tee-to-green at Waialae over the years has been spectacular, gaining five or more strokes versus the field in five of the past six seasons. That same tee-go-green excellence was on display at Kapalua over the weekend too. It seems to all just hinge on his flat stick. The Ryder Cup captain has at serious bouts of struggles on the greens some years, others, like 2024, he finishes top 10 in the field. Pray it’s one of the good years and Keegan will be firmly in the Sunday mix.

Gdula: JT Poston (+290, FanDuel) — Poston’s an accurate driver with an all-around game that makes him interesting this week. He’s finished T-21 and sixth here the last two years with positive strokes-gained in all four areas both years.

Stewart: Taylor Pendrith (+425, Bet365) — Taylor Pendrith was cooking at Kapalua. The confident Canadian finished seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green in an elite field of the tour’s best ball-strikers. Considering his putter was lukewarm, watch out at Waialae. Pendrith is a flat-stick star, and with the length he drives it, always has a wedge in hand. Watch him work his way around WCC and into the top 10 by Sunday.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (+550, Bet365) — Berger’s last start was a T-2 at the RSM, and he returns to a venue where he’s had success in the past with a T-7 in 2021 his last time here. I think it’s going to be a nice rebound year for Berger, who’s in a better place now. I sprinkled on the outright, too.

Powers, Golf Digest: Luke Clanton (+425, Bet365) — In eight PGA Tour starts, Clanton has finished inside the top 10 four times, and I’ve cashed in on none of them. Would like to change that at the Sony, where Clanton will be making his tournament debut. As he’s proven before, previous course history/knowledge is not required for him to pop off.

Lack: Russell Henley (+230, DraftKings) — While Russell Henley has given me a great deal of heartbreak over the years, particularly at this event, he still possesses the highest likelihood to at least be around the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. Henley has recorded six top-20 finishes in 12 appearances at Waialae, including a win in his first appearance, a playoff loss in 2022, and a fourth-place finish in 2024.

Top-10 results from The Sentry: Gdula: 1 for 1 (Sam Burns +240); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Sungjae Im +175); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 1 for 1 (up 2.4 units); Stewart: 1 for 1 (up 1.75 units); Caddie: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Mayo: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Hennessey: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Powers: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Lack: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit)

About our experts 

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. 

Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. 

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports 

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com