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Subriel Matias vs. Liam Paro odds, predictions, betting trends for IBF junior welterweight title fight | Sporting News Australia

Subriel Matias vs. Liam Paro odds, predictions, betting trends for  IBF junior welterweight title fight | Sporting News Australia

Before many of the world’s best super lightweights go to sleep at night, they check under their bed for Subriel Matias. The IBF champion is the bogeyman of the division and he returns to action against unbeaten Australian star Liam Paro at the Coliseo Juan Aubin Cruz Abreu in Puerto Rico on June 16.

The 12-round bout, plus undercard action, will be broadcast by DAZN, with existing DAZN subscribers being able to watch at no extra cost, due to the event not being pay-per-view.


Matias (20-1, 20 KOs) is one of the hardest punchers in world boxing. Last February, the 32-year-old destroyer won the vacant IBF title courtesy of a damaging fifth-round stoppage of the previously unbeaten Jeremias Ponce. Nine months later, Matias was handing another unbeaten fighter his first “L”, as Shohjahon Ergashev retired at the end of six.

WATCH: Subriel Matias vs. Liam Paro, live on DAZN

Paro (24-0, 15 KOs) is a capable young contender from Queensland. The 28-year-old southpaw earned this opportunity by scoring a sixth-round knockout over Montano Love on the Haney-Prograis undercard in December. Love was decked twice and stopped standing, so Paro enters his first world title fight in excellent form.

The Sporting News gives you odds and a final prediction for this super lightweight world title fight in Puerto Rico.

Subriel Matias vs. Liam Paro betting odds

Per TAB, Matias is the 1.18 favourite while Paro is the 4.50 underdog. The draw is at 21.00

Subriel Matias vs. Liam Paro trends

The current betting trends point to Matias winning via. KO/TKO/DQ, with bookmakers not expecting the match to be decided on points.

  • Matias via KO/ TKO/ Tech. Dec/ DQ: 1.32
  • Matias via Points: 7.00
  • Paro via KO/TKO/Tech. Dec/ DQ: 9.00
  • Paro via Points: 10.00

Subriel Matias vs. Liam Paro prediction, best bets

This just looks like wrong place, wrong time for Paro.

When you finally secure a world title fight, the last thing you want to face is a knockout artist who has never been taken the distance and has defeated every opponent he’s ever faced. That is what Paro is up against here.

While Matias suffered a close decision loss to unheralded Russian Petros Ananyan in 2020, that seems to be an aberration. Twenty-three months after that shocking setback, the Puerto Rican star dominated Ananyan and stopped him in nine rounds.

Paro is unbeaten and he carries a good punch, so that has to count for something. However, one struggles to forget him being decked by Yomar Alamo on a Jake Paul undercard back in 2021. If Alamo is putting a dent in Paro, then what can Matias do?

Sporting News prediction: Matias TKO 5 (Per TAB: 10.00)