A local media report in Australia on Deloitte survey of 84 chief financial officers from Australia’s top 200 companies:
private sector has entered an external hiring freeze
100,000 extra unemployed expected in the next 12 months
unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.5%
The piece cites the ‘Sahm rule”:
If that average increases by 0.5 percentage points above the lowest unemployment rate recorded in the prior 12 months it means the economy has entered a recession or is on the path toward one.
The RBA is holding its cash rate high and giving no public hints that there will be a cut any time soon. Officials at the Bank won’t be happy if the jobless rate keeps on climbing.