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The numbers behind Carlton’s steady rise up the AFL ladder

The numbers behind Carlton’s steady rise up the AFL ladder

When Geelong topped Carlton the last time the two teams met, in Round 7 this season, the Blues ended the weekend in sixth position.

Carlton had started well enough after a surprise preliminary final appearance last year, but its next month of football loomed as a major litmus test.

In the six weeks that have followed the 18-point loss to Geelong, the Blues have gone 4-2, picking up impressive wins against Melbourne at the MCG and Port Adelaide away from home. 

The Blues were professional last time out against Essendon before going into the bye sitting pretty at second on the ladder, and at present, look like legitimate premiership contenders. 

Here’s how Carlton has built a solid platform heading into the second half of the season.

De Koning’s emergence boosting Carlton’s engine room

Carlton’s season looked like it would be thrown into disarray when first-choice ruckman Marc Pittonet was sidelined with a finger injury after a 52-point loss to Sydney in Round 10.

In Pittonet’s absence, 24-year-old big man Tom De Koning has stepped into the main ruck role, and has seen an immediate uptick in his numbers. 

De Koning has recorded two games of over 20 disposals and over 10 clearances in his past three outings, a run that includes a near-best on ground performance against Essendon where he notched 24 touches, 11 clearances, seven inside 50s and five marks. 

Of all Carlton’s players who have appeared in each of the team’s past five games, De Koning leads the team in centre clearances per game with 2.8, ahead of skipper Patrick Cripps (2.6), George Hewett (1.4) and Sam Walsh (1.2).

Tom De Koning’s emergence as a genuine force has made Carlton’s damaging midfield unit even more explosive.(Getty Images: Dylan Burns)

De Koning’s 6.8 clearances per game ranks only behind GWS’s Kieran Briggs among rucks in the past five contests, and his emergence as a genuine ball-winner at ground level gives an already-powerful Carlton midfield an added dimension.

The Blues have been excellent in the clinches all season long, leading the league in contested possessions per game and centre clearances per game, while also ranking third in scores from centre bounce. 

Carlton has shown an ability to overwhelm teams with runs of goals all season long, with wins over Brisbane in the Opening Round and Port Adelaide in Round 12 both great examples of this. Against the Lions, the Blues slammed on five goals in just over five minutes of game time to secure a famous comeback win.

When the Blues get up a head of steam, they’re able to take full advantage of their centre bounce dominance to run up scores on opponents in no time. 

Ruthless efficiency and pressure inside 50

Despite having one of the AFL’s best engine room units, Carlton has struggled to convert its good work in the midfield into territorial dominance.

The Blues average 51.6 inside 50s, a mark that places them below the AFL average and ranks them 10th in the competition. That mark hasn’t got any better in the past five matches, where the Blues actually rank second-last in inside 50s ahead of West Coast.

However, once the Blues do get the ball inside their forward 50, there aren’t many more damaging teams in the entire league. 

In the past five weeks, Carlton ranks third in the AFL for goals scored per inside 50, with the Blues converting a hair over 28 per cent of each of their inside-50 entries into a major. If you extrapolate the data out to measure the entire season, only Sydney is more efficient in terms of converting their inside-50 entries into goals.